sign up log in
Want to go ad-free? Find out how, here.

Tuesday's Top 10 with NZ Mint: Australia's 'Dog Days' are coming; China's pensions black hole; The Global Doomsday machine is still running; Sudden Wealth Syndrome; Dilbert

Tuesday's Top 10 with NZ Mint: Australia's 'Dog Days' are coming; China's pensions black hole; The Global Doomsday machine is still running; Sudden Wealth Syndrome; Dilbert

Here's my Top 10 links from around the Internet at 10 am today in association with NZ Mint.

As always, we welcome your additions in the comments below or via email to bernard.hickey@interest.co.nz.

See all previous Top 10s here.

My must read chart is #4 on China's ageing population and looming pensions hole. Its workforce starts contracting from 2015... #8 is my second most-read.

1. 'Dog Days' for Australia - AFR.com reports on prominent economist Ross Garnault's warning to Australians they face 'dog days' of falling incomes and living standards because of the economic growth slowdown in China.

This is something we need to think about here in New Zealand too.

New Zealand dodged a bullet in 2008/09 because of China's extraordinary burst of infrastructure investment in response to the Lehman crisis.

All that investment in roads, rail, bridges, apartments and airports sucked in mountains of Australian iron ore and coal to make the steel for all that building..

China's domestic economy also perked up. So our biggest and second biggest buyer of exports skipped through the Global Financial Crisis, supporting us.

Now as Europe is slowing, so is China and Australia.

We may not skip through so easily this time around. Our 'exit' valve of Australia's job market is also likely to close up.

Here's Garnault:

Professor Garnaut, who forecast the rise of China in 1989, said the “salad days” of the boom were rapidly becoming “dog days” of faltering incomes and living standards in Australia.

He cited an urgent need for Australians to make “shared sacrifices,” such as in 1983 when the Hawke government slashed spending and introduced the wages accord. He also suggested the easy money tax breaks for the well-off and elderly should end.

“We do have to recognise that we’re in for fairly tough times,” the University of Melbourne professor told The Australian Financial Review in an interview yesterday.

2. But why? - Garnault explains well here why China is not going to repeat that amazing post-Lehman boom in infrastructure spending.

He said Australia’s terms of trade, or income from exports, would be hit by three “mutually reinforcing negatives” under way in China.

The first was a shift in China’s economy away from a focus on heavy industrial investment and exports, which have driven metals and energy demand. The second was a wave of internal reforms including the move towards lower carbon emissions that would cruel demand for Australian thermal coal. The third was the current “cyclical” downturn that was likely to continue.

“It’s an accident they’re coming all at once, but they are,” Professor Garnaut said, adding that China’s leaders showed no signs of wanting to repeat the post-GFC stimulus boost that helped turbocharge Australia’s terms of trade from 2009 to 2011.

3. Just add debt - China's local governments can't borow from banks anymore so they're issuing bonds through off balance sheet vehicles called Local Government Financing Vehicles (LGFV). 

Reuters reports these LGFV bond issues are rising fast.

While investors scrutinize China's monthly bank lending figures for signs of economic stimulus, a closer look at the data shows bonds are gradually replacing bank loans as the key source of funding for stimulus-style investment projects, especially for local governments.
 
New medium- and long-term (MLT) bonds have exceeded similar term loans for corporate credit three times over the last 10 months -- most recently in August -- a pattern that had never occurred prior to November last year.
 
That bond funding, much of which has flowed to local governments, marks an enormous shift for a financial system traditionally dominated by bank lending. But further accumulation of debt by local governments raises longer-term risks for the economy, as many localities carry massive debt loads racked up during China's vast 2008/09 stimulus.

4. China sliding into a pensions black hole - Here's the Reuters analysis explaining the demographic challenges in China.

Policy makers and economists have long been worried about the financial burden of China's expanding patchwork of pension schemes, but those concerns have recently escalated as its rural pension scheme took off in the past three years.

The funding shortage is daunting: economists say it could blow out to a whopping $10.8 trillion in the next 20 years from $2.6 trillion in 2010, towering over China's $3 trillion onshore savings, the biggest hoard of domestic savings in the world.

Time is not on China's side. Its fast-maturing society and economy -- thanks to a one-child policy and a rapid rise in living standards -- demand better pension coverage in future.

The problem of growing old, fast, is most acute in the countryside, where thousands of villages are "hollowed out" as working adults abandon farms to migrate to cities in search of better lives, leaving the young and old behind.

The old-age dependency ratio, or the number of elderly people as a share of those of working age, will hit 34.4 percent in rural China by 2030, compared to 21.1 percent in urban areas, and up from 13.5 percent in 2008, the World Bank said.

5. What the Fiscal Cliff looks like - Reuters reports on what the US Fiscal Cliff actually looks like. I still can't believe the US political won't find some last-minute fudge to stop this happening, but you never know...

If Congress does nothing and the United States plunges off the "fiscal cliff" in three months, taxes would rise for 90 percent of Americans due to automatic increases in income and payroll taxes and other financial shocks, said a report issued on Monday.

In the latest forecast of trouble ahead if Capitol Hill cannot overcome its fiscal paralysis, the Tax Policy Center, a Washington think tank, predicted taxes would rise by $500 billion in 2013, or an average of almost $3,500 per household.

At the same time, government spending would shrink, reducing the budget deficit. But the economy would likely be thrown back into recession next year, the center said, echoing similar predictions of the devastating impact of going off the "cliff."

6. What are they thinking? - Bloomberg reports Iceland is preparing to join the Euro-zone... They don't even have any good golfers.

7. A race against time - Hugo Dixon at Reuters has a nice summary of the problems facing the euro-zone.

Solving the euro crisis is a race against time. Can peripheral economies reform before the people buckle under the pressure of austerity and pull the rug from their politicians? After two months of optimism triggered by the European Central Bank’s plans to buy government bonds, investors got a touch of jitters last week.

The question is whether Madrid and other governments in Lisbon, Dublin, Rome and Athens can keep up the reforms long enough to restore their economies to health. That, in turn, depends on three factors: how much farther they have to travel; how unruly their people are going to get; and how much help they will receive from their partners.

Economic health requires both that fiscal deficits are eliminated and that competitiveness is restored. The peripheral economies have made some progress on both fronts. But shrinking economies makes it hard to balance their budgets while fiscal squeezes undermine growth. The vicious spiral of austerity is still whirring away.

8. The Doomsday Cycle - MIT Professor Simon Johnson and LSE Associate Peter Boone write at VoxEu about the Doomsday machine that is the modern global financial system.

The tragedy of the Eurozone appears unavoidable, but it reflects far greater risks that will spread to Japan, the US, and other advanced economies.
Through our financial systems, we have created enormous, complex financial structures that can inflict tragic consequences with failure and yet are inherently difficult to regulate and control. We are at the behest of our politicians and financial sectors to prevent them from creating dangers. Yet around the world, our political and financial systems have aligned to build these dangers rather than suppress them.

The continuing crisis in the Eurozone merely buys times for Japan and the US. Investors are seeking refuge in these two countries only because the dangers are most imminent in the Eurozone. Will these countries take this time to fix their underlying fiscal and financial problems? That seems unlikely.

The lesson from all these troubles is clear: the relatively recent rise of the institutions of complex financial markets, around the world, has permitted the growth of large, unsustainable finance. We rely on our political systems to check these dangers, but instead the politicians naturally develop symbiotic relationships that encourage irresponsible growth.

The nature of ‘irresponsible growth’ is different in each country and region – but it is similarly unsustainable and it is still growing. There are more crises to come and they are likely to be worse than the last one.

9. How high oil prices will permanently cap economic gap - Here's Jeff Rubin at Bloomberg with an opinion piece to warm the hearts of PDK and others.

For most of the last century, cheap oil powered global economic growth. But in the last decade, the price of oil has quadrupled, and that shift will permanently shackle the growth potential of the world’s economies.

The countries guzzling the most oil are taking the biggest hits to potential economic growth. That’s sobering news for the U.S., which consumes almost a fifth of the oil used in the world every day. Not long ago, when oil was $20 a barrel, the U.S. was the locomotive of global economic growth; the federal government was running budget surpluses; the jobless rate at the beginning of the last decade was at a 40-year low. Now, growth is stalled, the deficit is more than $1 trillion and almost 13 million Americans are unemployed.

And the U.S. isn’t the only country getting squeezed. From Europe to Japan, governments are struggling to restore growth. But the economic remedies being used are doing more harm than good, based as they are on a fundamental belief that economic growth can return to its former strength. Central bankers and policy makers have failed to fully recognize the suffocating impact of $100-a-barrel oil.

10. Totally The Daily Show on contracting Sudden Wealth Syndrome (SWS).

I wish.

"The wealthy are people too."

 

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.

Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.

62 Comments

Bernard is there any reason why every single article is negative?

Do you really see no positives in the world - or are you just grinding an axe of some kind?

Up
0

You are on the wrong site, try here

http://www.goodnewsnetwork.org/

Up
0

They do have to dig pretty deep.

  • Crow Nursed Back to Health Becomes Part of the Family
  • Sikh Woman Turns Cyber Bullying Incident into Inspiration

No fusion power breakthrough or world peace by next Wednesday.

I'm still hoping.

:)

Up
0

Thanks SK. You alerted me to the fact that todays Top 10 is a 'must-read'. And it is. Thank you Bernard.

 

On another topic. Why do I see the volume of comments on this site dwindling. Is it the school holidays taking the 'hard workers' away from their 'work-place' computers? Or is it a just that resignation is taking place - and some sort of squirrel behaviour is in progress? 

 

With such low comments volumes - life is very boring! 

Up
0

Getting fidgity in your la la land?   I think I smell fear starting to over-ride greed.

Can you see some significant good articles?  to act like prozac for you?  Personally I take my coffee like I want to see the world.....as it comes....no sugar...

The axe he's grinding points out the screwups we have managed for 40 years to gather....I wonder which straw of many will break the camel's back...

regards

 

Up
0

In 1990 my Japanese friend helicoptered over vast tracts of NZ in order to sort out the best 'bubble-making' NZ land investment.

 

Within 2 years those Japanese investments were being liquidated in order to ease the problems at home - which 20 years later still hurt my friend.

 

Fast forward to 2012 and we have Chinese millioneers helicoptering around NZ in order to start yet another land bubble.

 

Me thinks that history will repeat.  The local 'straw' is stupidly over priced property.

Up
0

I need my daily dose of Bernard.

Up
0

..... no problems ..... we'll gift-wrap the gloomster,  and have him delivered to your door ...

 

Enjoy !

Up
0

Thanks for the link, AJ. CH-Smith lays the blame for inflation fair and square where it belongs - Government spending directly and by intervention/subsidy of favoured sectors.

The real drivers of wealth - food production, manufacturing, electronics and technology improvements have resulted in improving production and /or price declines. Contrasting dramatically with Government (central &local) spending, medicine, law, finance and education - the non tradeables - all have risen substantially in relation to the median wage.

Be an interesting excercise to work out the proportion of the median Kiwi wage required to pay for  say a dentists visit or yearly rates bill in 1960 and today.

Up
0

absolute cwap....

He's losing the plot as his little right wing world unravels about him.......he's spouting rubbish like deflation and depression would be good for many....

Some of the so called non-tradeables you mention are privately provided and funded in the USA.  US Medicine is rising at 7% per annum......so its cost double every 10 years....I dont know what US higher education is rising at but now the costs outweigh the returns for many.....

Dentists are privately  paid for in NZ and those reflect the USA cost trend I would think....fail to see how these are non-tradeable.

law or finance is a non-tradeable?  huh?

Many of these reflect the monopoly rents that are growing in a so called free market economy...

NZ education does a pretty good job at 1/2 the rate of privately funded education.  Not only that quite a lot of the gains from private education come from the non-education aspect....ie the friends and relationships you make help you do better through life....not so much that you are better educated.

regards

 

 

 

Up
0

Thanks for the reply Steven. You clearly haven't read the link that AJ posted, the graph shows that US college prices have exploded to seven times the rise in wage. Medical costs have risen about 4x. These, and the others I mentioned enjoy quasi monopoly status thanks to government directive. The rise in education costs, for example, are driven by the availability of cheap and easily accessed government quaranteed loans. From the artcle:

 "Government spending is by definition unhindered by market forces; having a monopoly on coercion, taxation and selling Treasury bonds to the Federal Reserve means you get to spend money without worrying about price or other market functions.

Government spending that funnels huge sums of money into cartels--for example, the sickcare and higher-education cartels--directly supports monopolistic pricing, which then drives costs higher regardless of the money supply expanding or contracting. This is the basic function of the Statist monopoly capital partnership that dominates our neofeudal economy."

 

Non tradeablility? From Wikipedia:

"Tradability is the property of a good or service that can be sold in another location distant from where it was produced."

That pretty much excludes medical services, education, local and government taxes, legal services and, for the most part, financial services.

 CH-Smith is far from being a right winger, at least in the traditional sense, more of a Michael Hudson type I would have thought. I am surpised at your hostility towards him. 

Up
0

Somehow I think you are linking many of these points and joining them in ways that are not justifiable for me....each to his own.

I dont know where you get cheap and easy Govn loans for higher education in US terms at least, they seem crippling, some justification maybe for that in NZ I admit.

I certainly dont class tradeable v non-tradeable as you are doing.  For wiki local and Govn taxes, yes....everything else can be. 

and no I regard CH-smith as a fruity loop but maybe a MH type.....mostly maybe because Ive not read MH's work much so I have no context.

What you are really saying is private industry and business are blameless its all the Govn's fault, sorry I dont accept that as substantially true.

regards

 

Up
0

Well, perhaps, you would like to explain why prices are generally stable or even declining where there is un-hindered tradeability but rising exponentially where there are monopolies eg my rates bill. It's not just Governments, I would like to see all patents expire after a maximum five years and OPEC shut down for running a cartel. Maybe I'm a right wing nut-job as well? 

Up
0

I realise the overall tone of this site -but I would have thought good journalism attempts to present a full and broad picture - but perhaps the point of these Top 10 things is that they are personally curated misery.

 

In that case they should not be presented as news - just a selection of articles cherry picked to marry up with one persons bleak hopeless outlook.

Up
0

SK : I understand your frustration ...... after 4 years of the constant gloom , some of us have had a gutsful of the Hickey " Chicken-Little " outlook .......

 

..... but others don't ...... many around here thrive on the morbid thought that the world is a slow train wreck , heading irreversibly towards a fiscal armageddon ( riots , wars , famines , peak everything ) ......

 

Yesterday , David Chaston presented the Top 10 stories ..... and an excellent blend of the good , the bad , and the weirdly entertaining it was .......but  he got just 5 or 6 posts from bloggers , all day ...... Bernard has achieved more than that already , from his steady stream of hickeysterical gloomsterysing ...

 

.... Hickey even cheated by taking the Prof Garnaut story and cutting it into 2 segments ...... " salad " days and " dog " days , indeed ........ the good Prof has been to too many Thai buffets than is good for him ......

Up
0

Yes true - if it bleeds it leads. Scaremongering gets the attention I suppose.

Bit like braindead reality TV - the more 'sensational' the 'better', ad nauseam.

Up
0

I listen to a bit of BBC Radio during the night , and frequently hear snippets from the medical world of amazing breakthroughs ..... scientific research , silicon chip applications ... real tangible progress is happening ....... the spirit of human endeavour continues ......

 

..... whatever gloomsterisationing the Hickey acolytes choose to focus on is entirely their outlook .....

 

But Gummy sees alotta good in the world , less poverty now , than ever ....... fewer starving people , and actually ...... fewer armed conflicts .......

 

..... the world ain't perfect , never has been , and never will be .... but we are heading in the right direction ( away from the caves , stone-tools , and candles made out of PDK's ear-wax ) ....

Up
0

what if bernard is correct and we are wrong what then ?

Up
0

....... he hasn't been correct about much , until now ...... why do you suppose he'd start getting stuff right , all of a sudden ?

Up
0

I gotta say too here GBH, happiness, that's what your here for to cheer me up just before I get the rope and finish the note, along you come with some Yipeekaiyay and I'm putting the ladder away.

Now unless I miss my guess your here FOC so that would make Doc Doom two for two.

David C ..sits back and says get miserable Bernie baby, I got a yacht to pay for.

Up
0

Ah dear, you make me laugh! Here's to the glass being half full Gummy. 

Up
0

Life is good , m'dear , and getting even more gooder by the day !

Up
0

Not wanting to be picky or anything, but shouldn't that be "more gooderer" or something?

Up
0

...... nah , Rogie ..... you mean " goodest " ...... one can't be too careful about splitting one's infinities .....

Up
0

I gotta be honest with you SK...your here, he's doing something right...it might not be candybars and joywhizzers.......,.but gloom sells mah man>>!

  A Dom and Tune with you Doom and Gloom good Sir....?

Up
0

A full and broad picture does not include day dreams and how i'd like it to be on one side v nasty reality on the other.

Balance is not upheld by putting the incredibly unlikely that we are OK next to the credible  we are screwed and saying thats now a balanced piece.

If you dont like reality why visit?

Im sure there are lots of nice la la land places like real estate web sites that will provide a nice fluffy feel around your life.....

regards

 

 

Up
0

Baaaaaaaa'

Up
0

'stard

Up
0

Yeah right...im not the lemming blindly and greedily buying property to make a killing in my wild imagination....because thats all you have. 

Yes I think I can smell fear....

regards

 

Up
0

...... you know what they say , steven ...... if life gives you lemmings , make lemming-aid !

Up
0

 

Prof. Hudson: The bailout is not saving the banks. The banks could function very well the next day after a debt cancellation. You are saving the bank stockholders and the bondholders and the rich counterparties to the banks. You are saving the gamblers who have accounts with the banks, not saving the banks.

But there is something even worse. The slogan “saving the banks” means a program for the governments to be financially responsible, which means financially self-destructive. The bailout is forcing Greece to sell its public domain, its water and sewer systems, its land, its real estate, its buildings, to sell to private buyers who are going to borrow money at interest from the bank to buy these public assets, and to treat them like a toll road.

So in the broadest sense of the term, saving the banks means to achieve by financial terms what it took an army militarily to counter a thousand years ago. Saving the banks thus is destroying society. Is that worth the payment?

Up
0

The countries guzzling the most oil are taking the biggest hits to potential economic growth. That’s sobering news for the U.S., which consumes almost a fifth of the oil used in the world every day. Not long ago, when oil was $20 a barrel, the U.S. was the locomotive of global economic growth; the federal government was running budget surpluses; the jobless rate at the beginning of the last decade was at a 40-year low.

The most sobering news is that US oil imports are still decreasing with expectations that they will decrease by a further 550000 bbls per day.

The wake up is the the US is now approaching import levels of 1997 or around 2 miilion bbls a day off the peak in 2005.

 TTL internal  Consumption is also reducing at around 2.5% p/yr.

Up
0

and so? the imports/exports is incredibly complex looking at that one number does say much IMHO. maybe you can say why? or what you see?

NB un-employment is double if not treble the best years %....No job, no need to drive.  No summer driving season for many....

Consumer confidence and spending is in the doldrums.....less toys etc to ship about...less deisel demand.

NB indy truckers are saying they face going out of business with diesel at record prices....in the 70s diesel was 20cents, now its $3+ a US gallon......

Shale oil/gas players are looking to seel thier turf....should tell you a lot about how good the payback is.

regards

 

 

Up
0

and so? the imports/exports is incredibly complex looking at that one number does say much IMHO. maybe you can say why? or what you see?

My perspective is different, insofar as what are the dynamics driving the underlying reduction in consumption and the drivers behind the import reduction.

Firstly the cost function can be a driver in reducing consumption,it will induce behavioural response etc.But there is an underlying dynamic in energy intensity overall. Rosenfelds Law

Here we see in the US data energy consumption per( 2005) real gdp was 15.41$ per 1000btu in 1973 and in 2011 7.32$ per 1000btu or around half the cost.( eia 2011annual report)

If we look at the transport sector we see the efficiencies in CAFE will increase the rate of decline and to some extent the increase in Hybrids ie 1 hybrid saves 28 bbl of oilpa

The gas sector has now introduced a bifurcation in the production potential of US manufacturers as they now have a significant advantage over China (and Europe) in gas at say 3$ vs 13$.Something that is overlooked more often then not.

 

Up
0

Ah thanks for laying out your view.

Cost plays a part, yes I certainly think so.  There is an elastic part ot petrol demand and in-elastic.  The elastic is going out for a Sunday drive, that I think went bye bye in the US summer of 2008.  in-eleastic is commuting to work....you can change taht but its not easy and if lots of pple want to move closer thats a problem, hence if you are going to do it, do it early.

Rosenfields law probably only applies on the upside of the oil production curve and of course you get scaling effects....not sure how useful it is as a measure of anything, Ive never studied it. I suspect we will find its going to reverse from now on however.  This is becasue I think there is enough data to suggest that when oil's input to the US's economy reaches 6% of GDP a recession results....the present price is likely to see that stay high...

Hybrids are too few and too late IMHO to cause much change, it takes many years to significantly effect the average fuel consumption number.  Hybrids are also 2 to 3 times the cost and last at most 2/3rds as long....economiclally they are a disaster IMHO.

Gas doesnt make a good transport fuel, so Im not sure why thats that important....also the shale plays can be short lived, ie 6months against 6+ years, again I reallythink the economics are not there.

regards

 

 

Up
0

The commodities increase post GFC was a result of the traders exiting financials per se,and piling into a much smaller market.The underlying information whoever is the reduction in primary energy consumption GDP/ratio.

 

 

Up
0

Gas doesnt make a good transport fuel

I lived in China where is some cities (imagine a city of 10m+) entire Taxi and bus fleets are run on gas.

I spend a lot of time in europe and most petrol station seems to have a gas refueling option, so there must be the demand.

I remember the days in the early 80's when many NZ cars were petrol/gas hybrids before the Labour government pulled the plug on the subsidy (beause the gas was costing the equivilant of $30 a barrel & oil was only $20.

From what I have seen & experienced around the world Gas is an option, whether or not it is "a Good transport fuel" depends on your defination.

I also have faith that technology will keep changing the game. The higher fuel costs go the more these other options come into play.

here is an example of free solar power refueling stations being built in the States. It will cost nothing to recharge. Another article I read on the same subject. suggested that they will be built as part of road side cafes, which is where the money will be made. (i'm not saying this will work, but changes will keep coming)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/electric-car-maker-tesla-unveils-solar-powered-charging-stations-to-promote-longer-trips/2012/09/24/93ffd800-06c2-11e2-9eea-333857f6a7bd_story.html

 

 

 

 

Up
0

Plenty of taxidrivers here run their vehicles on LPG Steven. Have you considered that they might actually know (in the sense of actually experiencing) something that you don't? They pay about $1 a liter (billed the following month), modern conversions deliver improved fuel efficiency, and engine wear is vastly reduced compared to both petrol and diesel. Also emissions kinder to the planet as a bonus. If you do a high mileage, the investment pays back quickly. These drivers aren't rocket scientists but neither are they stupid.

Up
0

The problem is heavy transport. No good for diesel engines. So not economical for the vast majority of petro-chemical infernal combustion powered vehicles on land or sea.

although it's the lesser of two evils, it's a stop-gap solution at best.

Up
0

I am surprised that some are criticising Bernard for reporting negative news. If he wants anyone to pay attention to this site he will need to have plenty of bad news. See

http://au.pfinance.yahoo.com/our-experts/michael-pascoe/article/-/13457…

It is not only Bernard, but also anyone selling a newspaper or a news magazine needs a constant stream of disasters to feed upon to generate the bad stories that most people want to read. If Bernard were to dare to run just good news stories for a week, you can be sure that the comments would completely dry up.

As for myself, I tend to be an optimist, so Bernard helps me to achieve a more balanced perspective.

 

Up
0

Hey Austrian, the comments wouldn't be completely dried up. Steven would still be very there and very wet.

Up
0

Bitchy as usual...

regards

Up
0

rotflmao

regards

Up
0

rotfapmp !

( I'm wearing pants today , so you can open your eyes whilst you read this )

regards

Up
0

You made me laugh out loud there Gummy!

Just what I needed ;)

cheers

Bernard

Up
0

Barry Obama would regard the cartoon as very positive!

Up
0

Re #9 Bernard.....

Yet around the world, our political and financial systems have aligned to build these dangers rather than suppress them.

Suppress them...? interesting choice of words by the good prof and cohort....so the situation was unavoidable , needing then to be suppressed, rather than circumvented...? 

We rely on our political systems to check these dangers, but instead the politicians naturally develop symbiotic relationships that encourage irresponsible growth.

naturally develop symbiotic relationships...?.....what ,  did he mean Governments..??, good Lordy, who does the prof thinks installs the political systems in the democratic free world.

The relationship exists more often prior to the Administrations installment, so develop .?..no , facillitate an existing agenda ..yes.

Don't misunderstand me, I think the points made are good commonsense thinking, in an idealistic kind of way, but to bring about lasting change would require the concept of Democracy  to be held in contempt by the very people hell bent on promoting it as a flawless model.

The growth for growths sake fixation is part of the democratic model, as entrentched as free speech , so long as you buy something first.

Where we now find ourselves Globaly speaking , would require a cataclysmic event to bring about real reform, real change, reality itself.

 The Politics of Democracy and Financial Adventure are intertwined ,irrespective of what the Constitution may infer as to the common man's right of protection by those duly elected to care.

The modernspeak Democratic  Goverment has all focus on wealth of an economy being a reflection of wellbeing of it's citizens....that does not bear scrutiny ...or more correctly the wellbeing of it's citizenry is secondry to economic health.....particularly for those who underwrote Political campaigns  for  economic reasons.

While I've no doubt the Prof's a clever man,I think maybe gets caught up in the details rather than seeing clearly the systemic root cause.

Will there be a departure from democracy anytime soon..? not while Coke, McDonalds,. Levi, Nike, Movie Stars...etc etc are around......so correcting a behaviour  that is as innate as Apple Pie would require an admission that "The Model" was wrong ........................all along.

Up
0

Mr Chaston's Top 10s are the sort of inane pap typical of any other mainstream financial new providers ie CNBC, Forbes. Its the sort of background ersatz economic mood music more typical of the pre-2007 world. In contrast Mr Hickey seems to have realised several years ago that the world is in fact confronted by what is in effect 'the long emergency', the confluence of resource depletion, exploded debt and environmental degradation.

If you want to live in la la pre-2007 land follow Chaston and the mainstream media (and continue to be 'surprised' by events). If you want to deal in reality you could do worse than to follow Hickey.

Up
0

Geez andyh bit harsh on David C there, he's just getting back into the swing of it, you know picking up the reigns so to speak......maybe a short course of Xanax or Valium will suitabley tone down his exuberance.

 I did love this though...the world is in fact confronted by what is in effect 'the long emergency', the confluence of resource depletion, exploded debt and environmental degradation.....top shot..!

I'm going to tell the wife that one tonight, she'll think I'm real clever like ,and I'll get to lord it over her till she catches me misspelling my name again.

Up
0

Kunstler..........

you missed demographics....

;]

The average time to recover from a major depression is 13 to 17 years.....

maybe I should ask GBH or SK for 1/2 their prozac...

regards

Up
0

.... you stick to yer prozac , steven ..... Gummy gets a natural high from life , the universe , and the number 72 .......

Up
0

you bin readin James Kunstler?

Up
0

Andyh

I too think that's harsh. I enjoy David's Top 10s immensely. They have a slightly different flavour, but I'm always surprised and enlightened when I read them.

It takes all sorts.

I'm the slice of lemon in Gummy Bear's gin and tonic.

But variety is the spice of life.

cheers

Bernard

Up
0

Chaston is a baby boomer, Hickey isn't...vive la difference!You see this a lot, content (smug?) baby boomers who have done very nicely out of the property booms etc are often a lot more complacent

I used to work under a number of directors who were all baby boomers, they had done very nicely out of the boom years, they didn't see the slump coming, and when it did come they thought NZ would be out of the mess within 1-2 years. Luckily for them they had experienced the slump in the late 80s, so they were not dangerously complacent, and they had funds stacked away for the rainy days, which saved their asses. Although that was in 2010, whether they have continued to ride out the slump, I don't know   

Up
0

Chaston is a baby boomer, Hickey isn't...vive la difference!You see this a lot, content (smug?) baby boomers who have done very nicely out of the property booms etc are often a lot more complacent

Matt .I A. If I thought andyh was a little harsh, I think you just went right over the top my good man......do ya think the concept just got up and ran off the smell of smug contentedness...? do ya huh...? probably pretty bloody insulting really.

Smart men / women, get smarter or more specifically adept people to work.....for...them........Boomer don't enter into it.

 Now ,as Big B will be spending less time here, David C will have to get in the flow untill a suitable candidate can be hauled out of the pit of despair. 

As I said , give it a chance , and appreciate he has his own style, just like Alex , Amanda,Gareth......

Up
0

Christov - Chaston lauds Lomberg.

 

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/9533

 

note the comments.

 

To me, that means Chaston essentially believes a lie. A horseshit. Not that he's alone in that - there are a lot of scared folk who would prefer to fool themselves.

 

It can be done - the fooling of oneself - even with supposed intellect. Did you hear Sir Peter Gluckman's recent Lecture?  Acknowedged resource constraints, then turned the page and started advocating economic growth. Is he a nutter? Cognitively dissonant?. Sure, we've had a couple of generations of history of being able to buy whatever we wanted by having 'money'. Just happened the planet could underwrite at that stage. Wasn't going to continue, and hasn't.

 

 

 

 

Up
0

The countries guzzling the most oil are taking the biggest hits to potential economic growth.

 

That's an overly simplistic statement if I ever saw one! Sure high oil prices are going to be a dampener on economic growth, but......

I think Aus is the biggest per capita oil guzzler, yet its growth in the past few years has well exceeded the OECD average....and the States, a fellow guzzler, whilst weakish, is looking in better shape than most of those far less guzzling Euro nations  

Up
0

Yep - lots more action today. Some quality bedtime reading at last!

Up
0

 

Re Point 2: China seems to ramping up again,

 

Chinese shipping companies have placed a $4.5 billion order for 50 supertankers, throwing a financial lifeline to China's struggling shipbuilders, a newspaper reported Friday.

The order adds to a multibillion-dollar flurry of investments by state companies in recent weeks – a key element in Beijing's carefully controlled effort to reverse a painful economic slump.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/huff-wires/20120928/as-china-economy/

 

Up
0

Sheesh, SoreL ..! that was a dark one.....it's got me in a State just reading it.

Up
0

Regarding #4 and ageing demographics, maybe they will just "Bring in the scoops":

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QhfSPvp252M

The scooping starts at about 2 minutes 30 in...

... Tuesday is soylent green day after all and this is Tuesday's Top Ten :-)

 

Up
0