Barfoot & Thompson auctioned fewer properties over the past week but there was an increase in the number that sold.
Auckland's biggest real estate agency marketed 102 residential properties for sale by auction in the week from 30 April to 6 May, down from 121 the previous week.
Of those 102 properties, 25 were sold, giving an overall sales rate of 25%.
That compares with sales rates of 15% the previous week and 18% the week before that, both of which were short weeks due to the Anzac and Easter long weekends.
Sales were few and far between in most districts and only the North Shore auctions were able to achieve sales numbers in double digits.
The sales rate was particularly low in Auckland's leafy central suburbs, where just one of the 16 properties on offer was sold under the hammer.
The table below shows the district-by-district results.
Details of the individual properties offered at all of the auctions monitored by interest.co.nz, and the results achieved, are available on our Residential Auction Results page.
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| Barfoot & Thompson Residential Auction Results | |||
| 30 April - 6 May 2022 | |||
| District | Sold | Total | % Sold |
| Northland | 0 | 7 | 0 |
| Rodney | 2 | 10 | 20% |
| North Shore | 12 | 29 | 41% |
| Waitakere | 3 | 14 | 21% |
| Central suburbs | 1 | 16 | 6% |
| Manukau | 6 | 18 | 33% |
| Papakura | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Franklin | 1 | 7 | 14% |
| Total All Districts | 25 | 102 | 25% |
101 Comments
Ouchy Ouch
There's more houses on the market than 6 months ago. The number of houses being auctioned is down about 70% compared to 6 months ago.
Ouchy ouch if you're in the business of auctioning houses, that's for sure.
Yep auction success rate doesn’t tell the full story. Should you include the now much larger percentage of houses that people didn’t even take to auction because they knew they wouldn’t sell?
In the good times auctions are the best way to get the best price, in the bad times they are the quickest way to sell at any price, and if the market is going down then selling quick is vital.
Over 12500 for sale in Auckland, 100 for auction 25 sale, interest rate still close to emergency level once RBNZ understand inflation is not going away mortgage rate will hit 7% 8% this will be end of housing market until it drops to a place where average wage couple can afford to buy so around 450k.
"afford" involves a lot more than purchase price.
At 8% interest, servicing 450 grand isn't overly affordable
P8 450 k is a lot better than 1 million at 8%. Once price’s start to unwind form a hugely overpriced market the bottom will be hit around 50% too 60% from top last year, could go even lower it Rates or inflation goes higher than expected.
Who really knows but over the past few decades there's been an intersection of dropping rates and increasing prices, so the servicing hasn't really moved so much.
Put it this way, the housing crisis won't be getting resolved in a high interest rate environment.
We might just change our perceptions about what the term 'housing crisis' actually means. What it means depends upon what you have to gain or lose from the continuation of that term and associated narrative that has been used by the media as click bait for its articles and resulting in emotional/irrational human behaviours (be quick...buy now before you miss out...FOMO....).
Its put the fear of god into politicians to do anything so they won't touch it, and its caused investors and FHB's to take on far more risk than is reasonable. And its allowed the greedy to manipulate the fearful into making poor decisions (think investors encouraging FHB's into the market to push prices up...).
Removal of the term from common discussion throughout society will be part of the unwinding of the mess we find ourselves in and an improvement in our social division/reduction in financial risk.
A lot of our housing crisis has been caused by people who buy more than one house, and then insist on only "perfect" tenants moving in.
Nobody with credit problems, nobody who can't read or write on an application form, nobody who can't present "nice" at viewings, nobody with pets or in "undesirable" family arrangements. All those people struggle to find somewhere to live and drop through the cracks. Cracks that were created and widened by the rentier culture.
Pretty sure no landlord, whether private or public, wants those sorts of tenants. They're expensive people to do business with.
Some landlords who are over leveraged could end up on the bad credit list probably some might even go bankrupt along with some developers.
It was ever thus.
Yes exactly...the influence of the additional demand caused by investors competing with what would have in the past been homes purchased by FHB might have had a huge impact on price pressures (impacts of the marginal buyer).
If those investors now leave because the numbers no longer stack up (think no interest deduction, no capital gains, and rising interest costs)...then the loss of that marginal buyer could have the opposite effect as prices decline.
But yeah its pretty rich form to hijack a housing market then decide what type of people should be allowed accommodation! (while possibly receiving government subsidies in the form of accommodation allowances)
Let's add another variable then. Assuming a 20% deposit in both cases for simplicity, a 30 year mortgage at 8% on any property up to 6x household income is cheaper than a mortgage at 4.5% on a property that is 9x household income.
Probably, there's quite a few variables.
How much cheaper?
Indeed. Many people lured into enormous mortgages are going to learn this the hard way.
Seem to remember that the last trough in Auckland market had 16000 for sale, ..then add in 15 years population growth and massively higher construction..might be 20k listings for sale ,when the market really bottoms. Looks far more like a slow slow grind down ,due to stronger economy. 3 years to really bottom out,winter of 2025 might be last low buying before an upswing. Auction clearance rates lead price increases upwards also ,by 2 months,( settled sales ,2 months later in stats,but immediately setting price expectations ,). Macrobusiness chart showed very high correlation. So ,traders / collectors can just take a couple of years to get their ducks in a row,almost leisurely from here,for a while. That's my pick.
Highest in the last 5 years was about 14,400 (end of March 19). Currently about 12,700, having risen from a low of 6800 (yes 6800) last Sept.
Savvy people will exploit the opportunities that a quieter housing market offers - taking their time to pick out good, well-located properties, so as to prosper in the next market upswing.
But the Doom Goblins (above and below) will sit on their hands, do nothing, and cry "foul" when the market takes off again.
So take your pick - you can be a winner or a loser in the property stakes.
TTP
💩🤡
Amokk .....I have never known an industry in New Zealand to financially "drain the lifeblood out of a productive economy" ....instead of talking about interest rates for house mortgages .....the discussions on the table should be business loans for new ventures ??? .....can't have that though, as the prime profit takers in this clusterf*ck are the banks, as they would say "it's just too risky" ...... ridiculous.
Oddly people farming/debt speculation winners have ended up with loser like personality characteristics so net sum = zero.
Know of guys who have made it rich in property but have turned into complete dicks whose partners have left them and the kids don’t want anything to do with them even though they are wealthy ‘winners’.
Id rather be a ‘property loser’ but a decent human being who cares about the well being of society over short term personal financial gain.
If you mow your neighbours front lawn, you might not get any money out of it but the street you live in will be a whole lot nicer for it. They might even thank you with a beer.
Absolutely....love thy neighbour as yourself, is the aim, not turn they neighbour into thy rent slave (which as been the common narrative for the 'get ahead' crowd).
Kind of like in the 80s when brierleys shares crashed and the astute investors picked up the good brierleys shares cheap.
I've got some Enron stock that should make for a nice wee nest egg, come retirement time :)
"taking their time" when would that be? Circa 2025?
The whole world is having problems from wars too high inflation some countries are almost bankrupt food shortages, our little housing market is on the brink of a major downturn around 90% could not afford a half decent property in auckland .
Financial Times : The Fed owes the American people some plain-speaking.
https://www.ft.com/content/8e007f54-d723-4f1c-a06b-ad09e2052584
Does it also not applies to rbnz.
Not great news for Auckland vendors. It is getting harder to get finance. Even commercial landlords with extensive portfolios are being turned down for finance for prospective new investments. We are in a totally new world. Bank finance if you can get it is more expensive to service and it’s going to get worse. Watch those house prices drop except for the trophy ones.
And the trophy ones too I imagine. Everyone seems to think the $4 mil villa in Epsom is safe, these auction results seem to suggest otherwise with the central suburbs not selling either. Not that many people have a spare $4 mil lying around, so expensive finance affects them too, maybe even more so. Probably cheaper to send to private school than pay a double grammar zone mortgage at current prices and interest rates.
Long term Epsom is fairly safe. The capital flight out of China this decade will be off the hook.
Sounds inflationary!
A 4mill home in Epsom is not a trophy home. It’s just a very expensive home that will be competing with many others in similar leafy locations. They will have to drop their prices to move them as people have choice.
I recently walked through an 8m purchase in remuera and was distinctly underwhelmed. Nice, sure, but I would have hoped for a lot more for that kind of dosh.
I guess it all depends on your expectations and what you have lived in before. When I first walked around my $850K property it was nothing but WOW and that's after walking round others that were up to $1.3 that I didn't even like. Took me a year to find it however, most people just don't have the patience to find their forever home. Depends on your priorities and what you place value on, I can almost guarantee my view is better than the $8million dollar place.
Sure. I just meant that even at 8m in that part of town the trophy home aspect is a bit marginal, much less at 4m.
You are paying millions for the postcode so its either in or its out. Just out of interest what was the address ? To be honest I never even look at houses I cannot afford and I'm not on any form of social media either, I suspect its a combination that makes you a happier person.
True. If your enjoyment of your house depends in significant part on others seeing you in it or possessing it that's a big price to pay for a somewhat sad basis of value.
Try walking through the USD equivalent amount property, in a city in the USA ....you would be overwhelmed ! .....Some people here (in AKL) are so full of their own "self importance" coupled with "delusions of granduer", they fail to realise in a world view, they are just a tiny fish in a huge ocean.
Yes with the banks now assessing loan applications on a 7.2% interest rate, people wont be able to borrow as much now eg 700k mortgage you will have to have the income to pay 50k interest a year. House prices must correct (fall) from here, the party is over.
That 700k on a 30 year mortgage term is nearly $1200 pw when stress tested at 7.2%!!!
remember, new two bedroom townhouses are typically advertised for 850-900k, so a 700k mortgage is quite plausible for such a property.
Not hard to see, from doing the math, that the residential construction sector is looking down the barrel…
The great wall of RE is starting to crack and they are getting wider by the week...
Maybe the next storm will topple it...
The supply of greater fools has dried up at a pace faster than even I expected.
The wealthy have better places to be than some mouldy wooden shack in the central suburbs of Auckland.
The greatest fools are the ones that get in just before the bubble pops. They hear other peoples success stories and assume they will get the same outcome if they do the same.
The difference between becoming very rich or very poor is just a matter of timing. It will be the same for crypto I imagine.
Assumes this time it's different.
The best time for a FHB to buy was in around June 2020.
I wouldn't be feeling great if I was a FHB who bought between the middle and end of 2021, especially if I went in with a low deposit ( say 5-15%).
I take the point that people make about property being for the long haul, however that skirts around a few important things in terms of FHBs:
- In this day and age (compared to say 20-30 years ago), the first home will often be a very small townhouse, at least in Auckland. For FHB couples, who want to have at least 2 kids, a pokey 2 bed townhouse as a first home will be often be a 4-5 year type of proposition
- It's still an awful start to your home ownership experience to be in negative equity within a year or so of buying
- By buying at or near the peak, all things being equal your mortgage is larger than it could have been. When you re-finance, you are going to be whacked a lot harder, at higher rates, than you would have otherwise been with a smaller mortgage.
It would have been pure insanity to buy around that time. Record low interest rates, credit flowing like the Niagara falls, gifted deposits and guarantees pushing prices further, and now likely gone. Thousands of dollars burnt on reports, inspections and fees. It's hardly surprising though, given what we see happens to toilet paper before a lockdown occurred.
The worst thing to do would have been buying off the plans last year, as:
- you've bought at the peak
- You don't even have the benefit of a low interest mortgage for 1 or 2 years, given the completion of the townhouse or apartment might be in say mid to late 2022. When you settle you will be paying an interest rate of at least 5-6%, not 2.5-3.0%
The best thing that could happen is for the development to fall through, and to get your deposit back.
So if the market bounces back in 3-5 years will these FHBs be regretting their purchase? I remember my first home people thought we paid a ridiculous price - at 'the peak' then, a couple years later it looked reasonable, 5 years later it looked like a bargain...
No not necessarily. But as I say in another comment, many FHB's buy for 4-5 years (or even quite a few I know of for 3 years, to see out the Kiwibuild condition). I think it's questionable at this stage whether the property value will be higher in 3-5 years than the purchase price.
And as I say, the other killer is the cost of finance that they will be hit with on settlement.
So not necessarily end of the world stuff, but potentially quite uncomfortable.
Also what type of property was your first property? I would suggest all these pokey townhouses have less potential to appreciate significantly in value.
Yep know of a FHB couple buying a small townhouse off the plans, looking to move in shortly. Paid their deposit at the peak and their first payment will be on 2022 interest rates. Stress tested and should be able to cover it and ride it out, but these are young professionals with very good incomes being pushed to the limit of their cashflow for the foreseeable future.
There you go.
They will get through, but with a significantly reduced standard of living.
Also they shouldn't expect the value will be higher than the purchase price for at least 4-5 years.
Do you know whether they view the property as a long term prospect, or more as I outline above ie, 4-5 years then move to a bigger place.
Friend of a friend, so don’t know them too well. Classic story telling, but when I heard about it my gut turned a little.
Dinky couple, early 30s. Not sure if there’s a family or lifestyle plan. But as you say, lifestyle compromises will basically pause any progression for 4 or 5 years while they scratch the surface of the principal
Your last point is spot on. The suburb I’m in has been an ‘early adopter’ of intensification and 2 years in, the first generation of townhouses are not ageing well. The ones that have sold definitely have not kept pace with overall market gains - there are so many identical developments coming on stream that there’s not much they can compete on, apart from price. They really aren’t suitable for families (tiny, no green space, no parking - trying to wrestle a newborn plus toddler down a shared drive to the road just isn’t feasible). The gap to trade up has taken off - not sure they will work out well for those who have bought as a stepping stone.
The problem is that you could have said it was 'pure insanity' to buy at just about any time in the last 15 years. It's only with hindsight that you know whether it is true or not. In an environment in which political parties of both stripes continued to effect massive wealth transfers to property owners seemingly no matter the cost, it is not reasonable to expect people to predict the one time they wouldn't. If property owners appear to be a protected class, no matter what happens, it makes sense to try and become one.
If you base your decision on buying a house by what the Government has done in the past, then you are a fool and deserve to get burnt.
That is really the point though - it is madness ti base decisions on what governments have done in the past. It is also madness to base decisions on what should or is likely to happen given fundamentals when government intervention has largely meant these are meaningless. In that kind of environment, there really is no way to use the information available to you to make a decision. So it is a bit unfair to castigate people if they make, what in hindsight, turned out to be a bad decision.
25 % is not bad as have not slide more and has been near around this level.
Best result of 33% in Manukau from 5%. Is it because vendors are more flexiable and ready to meet the market which is definite 10% to 15% below their original expectation, if not more and now panic has shifted from buyers to sellers.
FHB who overcame FOMO will now be experiencing JOMO (Joy Of Missing Out).
Looking at the last full week of auctions (before three Easter/Anzac short weeks), 25% clearance in auction. The difference though is halved. That week 49 out of ~200 properties sold. This week, 25 out of ~100.
Can’t be certain that if 200 properties went to auction this week, 49 of them would sell.
Based on that we could start looking at the clearance rate as:
12.5% anticipated properties sold due to realistic reserves, 37.5% did not sell and 50% of sellers thought better of it.
Im being very short sighted here heading into winter and other headwind but you get the idea.
Its just a problem of inadequate understanding, inadequate preparation and inadequate work [and] we need to resolutely overcome the ideas of contempt, indifference and self-righteousness
Price discovery in real estate may take some time, unlike the fx market which has minute by minute discovery eg NZD 7% lower against the AUD on the cross since last September. I’m all for a life changing reset if it influences the ‘23 election result.
"The party is over, surely!" Seems to sum up the comments section these days.
You mean for the last 13 years! This time it’s probably correct though.
You got that right Jimbo
The party has been on for over two decade with slight hiccups here and their but this is the first time when house prices are falling and interest rates going up. It has never happened as whenever house price softens RBNZ intervene to promote and support by lowering interest rate and LVR.
So will this time too will be just a hiccup or end of the bigger bull run.
Some party *rolling my eyes*. Those invited included mostly banks, RE agents, mortgage brokers, investors and flippers. There was little to celebrate for those who 'only owned' one house. And the banks downed most of the punch.
Punch? I think you meant Kool Aid ...
The previous years were more like hoping and praying and that the government would do something about the lunacy. Just like shorting a stock, "it cant go any higher can it?" under reducing interest rates and quantitative easing over the past decade.
Now liquidity is drying up and interest rates are trending up....Smart traders know whats coming....
The bottom isnt in.
The housing market correction is under way. It needs correcting.
The housing market needs correcting or the housing market correction needs correcting?
What makes the RBA’s history of housing misses so odd is that its own staff have actually developed an outstanding model of the market, which we have refined and used ourselves. While Martin Place has been historically insouciant to the insights rendered by this analysis, which explain the 2012-17 and 2020-22 booms, it did unfurl the “Saunders-Tulip” model for the first time in its latest Financial Stability Review.
Our updated version of the model points to a 33 per cent correction in house prices after a permanent 100 basis point increase in mortgage rates. Our official forecast involves a more modest, 15-25 per cent correction, which would still be the largest loss in housing market history.
The risk is that the RBA once again gets wrapped up in its flawed projections of the future, and hikes too hard and fast. Lowe himself seemed to endorse financial market expectations for 150-175 basis points of hikes this year alone, which has now become a consensus view. Goldman Sachs has taken this to an absurd extreme, alleging the RBA will hike 260 basis points by the end of 2022. Can you imagine what our world will be like when the discounted variable mortgage rate jumps from 2.25 per cent right now to 5 per cent (allowing for bank top-ups)? It would be Armageddon.
I think the NZ housing market would be a good contender for an Ozzie Man Review, welcome to Destination .............!
i love the AFR , great reporters.
Love reading the comments here but its turned into a bit of an echo chamber. Not sure if there will be anyone left here if there is not a crash this time, I mean it simply HAS to crash this time right ?
There is still plenty of room for downward valuation.
What if it doesn’t crash this time…?
A dip of 20% and goes back up again?
We will follow the Global equities and RE crash...... we are more over valued than offshore.... There is no logical reason when housing is so expensive here and wages so low compared with aussie.... we need to be cheaper then aussie...
Going back up again is a sure thing.do something while others having popcorn
More people having popcorn the better, less competition 👍
You a buy the dip kinda guy small Kev?
Maybe a dip of 20% and wages increasing by 30% = 38% correction. If inflation carries on with wage inflation, then house prices could remain static and revert to planet earth ratios. Those who bought at the "peak" won't get burnt, except for a little short term interest rate pain.
No different when you spruikers had a rising market on your side. You don’t have so many fellow disciples now. Of course many of them like yourself don’t actually hold any property at all but you loved to puff out your chests when the market went up. Look at us. We are so clever.
No need to prove anything to anyone this is only the internet.
Relax and do what you want to do and believe what you want to believe, people are different that’s how the market functions.
Just saying the spruikers were an echo chamber when the market went their way. The worm has turned and now the buyers have the upper hand. Where it all ends I do not know but one thing I do know some of those who bought last year will be kicking themselves. High debt levels on one’s home, rising daily personal costs and rising interest rates will be a challenge for some. So many thought it would keep going. They were wrong plain and simple.
There's plenty of room for Treasury analysts, reserve bankers and government individuals possessing of investment property to search for more ways to pump and protect the market. Surely?
House prices are soft but have not fallen in a meaningful way.
House that was $900000 pre pandemic is listed for 1.375 million as the new CV is 1.35 million, up from $875000.
Even if it sells for 1.3 million is high for old 3 bedroom 1 bath house on 575 sqmt
One house out of 10s of thousands of houses for sale (many not selling) “Is listed for” hahahaha great argument.
The flaccidity is just getting started.
Even if it sell. That the problem is it going to if it doesn’t that 1.3 million will soon be 750 k
Will it sell for$1.3m? Hold onto your tickets.
It certainly will never sell for $750k as DTRH suggests- dreaming right there.
nobody is going to pay that much right?
Someone might… Somewhere a FHB (or any buyer entering the market really) enters the market and triggers a chain of OO sales. 1.3m might not be too far off if you sold for 1.1m which might not be too far off if you sold for 900k, which might not be too far off if you sold to a FHB for 700k. Can’t remember who, but a comment on here a couple of days ago suggested the sales chains are hitting up to 7 homes like dominoes.
What percentage of market activity does this account for?
Not suggesting this is the only activity going on but it’s definitely more evident at the moment than I’ve noticed before.
The problem now though is the extra borrowing cost and the decreased income to pay for it, due to inflation. Only one has to fall over & the rest collapse and they're selling again at a lesser price.
It will become increasingly difficult to trade up without good equity and really decent cash flow.
That was me regarding the dominoes. Here in Wairarapa it's fairly common as the market is quite small but very active. Our selling agent mentioned last year they were participating in a 7 chain sale, with each buyer subject to sale of their existing property (except for the FHB who was subject to finance).
Looked at the ads this morning, yes there are more listings, and unlike last year, some of them show asking prices.
And asking prices appear to have increased. Like sellers expect a tidy profit.
On the other hand, some of the less desirable properties "price reduced", older ads.
Turangi is all Deadline sales.... ie Dead no sales
Turangi was hot around 2018, and a boom in Tokoroa then.
Pretty fly for a fly guy
prices have doubled in Turangi in about 4-5 years, about to see an almighty reversal
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