There was a slight drop in auction activity for the second week in a row at the latest auctions, potentially signalling the market has passed its summer peak.
Interest.co.nz monitored 249 residential property auctions around the country over the week from 11-17 March, down from 268 the previous week and 293 the week before.
That has taken auction activity back to where it was in the first couple of weeks in February, suggesting the market is now on the downside of the summer peak.
However the sales rate has remained remarkably steady, with 81 properties selling under the hammer at the latest auctions, giving an overall sales rate of 33%.
The auction sales rate has remained at around a third or just over for most of the summer.
Price trends were also little changed at the latest auctions, with 36% of the properties that sold fetching prices above or equal to their rating valuations, barely changed from 38% the previous week.
The chart below shows the district-by-district results from the latest auctions monitored by interest.co.nz.
Details of the individual properties offered at all of the auctions monitored by interest.co.nz, including the prices achieved for the properties that sold, are available on our Residential Auction Results page.
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61 Comments
It will be interesting to see if you are right on this. The failure of SVB and accompanying rhetoric of 'interest rates have peaked/soon-to-peak therefore rate cuts must be inbound' might cause some to feel that the bottom of this housing market is nearing. FOOP converting to FOMB (Missing the bottom) at some point this year?
While interest rates correlate to housing prices, there's a wider amount of growing negative economic sentiment that'll have people weary of making large financial commitments for this year at the very least.
But yeah part of the reason there's been so many sharp rate hikes is buffer to drop them again for economic stimulation.
Careful Pa1nter, you could be held accountable for inducing a medical event. Historically focused Spruiker's will find the thought of cheaper debt very stimulating........😆
The housing market is shaking out a few of those who got themselves donkey deep in debt during the last market upswing.
There’s nothing new about that - it’s a standard market process for dealing with those who are given to (unsustainable) excesses.
But corrections also create strategic buying opportunities for those who adopt a counter-cyclical approach. When the masses climb in, we’ll see the launch of the next market upswing……
TTP
Do you honestly think buying a house where the interest payments are so much more than possible rent (even before tax and expenses) is a great buying opportunity? I guess it might be if interest rates go down again, but a bit of a gamble. This is a very uncharted territory really, I can’t think of a time when yield has been so out of whack with interest rates, ignore that at your peril.
Just a tinsy winsy gully then ?
If they lower rates in any way inflation will go up to levels not see before. The USD will capitulated along with NZD, hyper inflation will be here people will be more like just trying the feed family the system will be over. House price’s will not be issue when people are just trying to survive cows or pigs will be more value than property. If you think lowing rates will start a new bull run you are very naive.
Hyperbole much?
All the best investors think the sky's falling tomorrow.
Meanwhile the fonterra result was forecast a month ago, right under their noses but market pricing did not pick up on it until the actual result. Improving from strength to strength.
Its not a sexy company by the likes of A2, xero etc.
Mary Holm advice
"Perhaps we should add another investment rule: whenever you buy any asset whose price is volatile - such as shares or property or collectibles - picture the price falling in the next few years. Will that be difficult for you either financially or psychologically? If yes, dont buy"
From her investment advice column
Imagine what a run on housing would do to our unstable dollar.
not as much as you might think if same is happening in usa
Hello spruiker, with the bank turmoil, the funding costs will remain high..
Maybe you can rescue some of those distressed sellers
Definitely the time to buy. Nobody can pick the actual bottom because it is retrospective, but we are close. Having said that, prices are now likely to steady rather than increase.
The bottom is way off how much would you need to earning to by a million dollar tiny house in Auckland from scratch maybe around 300k per year top 5% of earners are the only people how can afford this and I can’t see them in a tiny 3 bedroom place with stamp for garden. This housing market will continue to fall for a year or so and then just stay flat for years
Auckland isn’t the only market. Cities world wide always attract premium prices. There are plenty of options in the provinces.
The regions prices are set in relation to Auckland. If Auckland is a small city at the end of the world, a house in the regional whops whops is even more remote (and overpriced).
How many properties have you got listed at the moment?
Thats why I clearly state a metric rather than a date.... When the monthly reported moving average price turns positive over a 6 month period, the bottom is in or close..... you don't need to pick the day, you will not miss out.... we are not close and you present no data to prove its stopped falling..... where as every month for the last 6 months its negitive.... some facts vs opinions please
It’s a feeling in my water after years of being around the biz. Plus interest rate pauses, steady sales and prices, the realisation of pent up demand, election year…
Your waters? well my waters tell me there is a lot of pent up desperation, and that the pols show Labour ahead....... more importantly my technique is built on real data based on every house sale printed each month.... so its repeatable and usable by anyone in NZ who does not have access to "the waters" the last 6 month moving average of house price sales in NZ is still NEGITIVE = the bottom is not in.
We shall see…my intuition v your stats. And you know what they say about stats. Numbers are like people; torture them enough and they'll tell you anything.
Sounds like you should be the last person anyone should listen to then.
Waters and years in the biz 😂😂😂
I like to think gut instincts are often processing of lots of data points almost subconsciously. Yes vulnerable to being misguided but not completely discounted as having no value without some reflection.
Statistical methods are (should be) much more reliable but have their own vulnerabilities. Icecream sales and shark attacks are closely correlated. Which is causing the other? What? neither? but statistically.....
Unless we can eliminate all other possible variables (even pure sciences find that hard) we have embedded assumptions too.... where we've got assumptions ... well. I assume you know what I mean.
In this case the gut instinct is probably based on a history of house prices always increasing. But I’m not sure the author has realised that house prices have increased because interest rates have decreased. Now that interest rates have gone the other way, house prices should drop substantially to maintain some level of affordability.
True
And they did in Ireland when Interest rates increased from 3.49% in 2005 to 5.51% in 2008. Their market fell over 60%.
Our interest rates have increased considerably quicker, and higher. And our first year house price falls are considerably faster. Yet people still think a similar scenario here is off the table?????
WTF?…
Of course you can predict the bottom... But not on the downslide , but on the upclimb.
When you see the market start climbing buy buy buy !
Buying on the way down is dumb as you don't know where the bottom is
let me spell it yo you
when you see the market start climbing . is same as just before bottom
You are assuming an awful lot, you have no knowledge of my wider wealth - currently in term deposits (previously in shares) and KiwiSaver. Nor of my inheritance.
You have told us all about that you were skint and waiting for your inheritance selling up the family home in Wellington. In 2019
Rubbish. The only thing you got right in that sentence was that I bought in 2019.
My father sold his Wellington home in early 2021 and moved to a retirement village. That has nothing to do with inheritance or my house purchase.
Good bye.
You put yourself out there and it is a clear example of someone who could have made better choices.
I wondered why someone who spent 2018 and 19 bagging housing would launch in and buy a house. Having an agenda springs to mind
HW2
”Goodbye”
That’s just HM when in an indefensible position he acts like an immature kid, spitting the dummy and going home.
True to form, next he will be saying he won’t be playing with you anymore.
All due to an over inflated ego easily triggered. 😩
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Thanks
Greg.
For a 250k house deposit you might end up owning a house worth millions. You can NEVER do that by investing 250k in the sharemarket. If you're lucky you will get your capital back. Applying 7 percent implied return on the deposit, the same also applies to the total home value. Please calculate the compound value of the home at 7 percent, hint it doubles every 10 years.
For instance people who bought a home on 20 percent deposit in 1973 paid $1800 for a 9k purchase. The same home in 1987 was worth at least 135k. That is 1500 percent capital growth in 15 years.
I know of some units that cost 5k each to build in 1973. In 2023, the rent totals 5k every 10 or 11 weeks. In other words the rent pays for the construction cost 5 times every year
You can't get better investment than bricks and mortar IT GUY, I mean aucklandproperty guy
If sales have peaked then agents and agencies are in for a long winter.
less cars in ski field car parks, all good
Smaller cars or cars with bits missing?
(Relocated)
Got this from one agent this week
”
Banks are swamped with pre-approval applications and are prioritising live deals.
There are so many positive indicators about the market right now that even uneducated buyers are actively looking. The most experienced investors certainly are...ask Tony Alexander.
Take a look at these new listings, make an offer and then take your bank a live deal.
You'll thank me later.”
God bless
You can smell the desperation
God Bless in the end says it all.
The agent blurb that I often see is, "Our vendors are very motivated to sell" or similar, they get a good bid at auction and then pass it in.
"The REA's are the worst industry in NZ"
I'm going to go out on a very long limb here and disagree. We love to bash REAs but I think it's largely unwarranted. Of course they're going to say things like "buy now!" - it's called advertising. They're not giving you financial advice for heaven's sake, and if you mistake it to be that, then I'm so sorry. Any Harvey Norman catalogue says the same bland things. It's hardly deceitful to use photos that show things from the best angle, and if your due diligence was so poor that you didn't notice the gang pad next door, you can't pin that on the agent.
As far as selling, REAs are upfront about what it's going to cost you to use their service. If they don't get the result you wanted, you don't pay them a cent for their time.
And if you don't think they're worth the commission, don't hire them. No one's making you. Sell privately.
In my experience the most dishonest people are the tradespeople who will pull any BS figure out of the air that in no way reflects the labour or material used but rather the highest possible figure they can get away with without totally revealing the fact they're taking the p!ss. I'm sure there are good ones, but they must be a minority. Somehow this rort flies under the radar while we sit around whinging about REAs and car salesmen, who I personally have never had a problem with.
Lying scumbag.
This is why people hate estate agents.
Who hurt you
Housing is consumption (thus speculation), not 'investing'. I am not sure who is the uneducated one here.
- Small and medium-sized banks play an important role in the US economy. Banks with less than $250bn in assets account for roughly 50% of US commercial and industrial lending, 60% of residential real estate lending, 80% of commercial real estate lending, and 45% of consumer lending.
I live close to Glen Innes. A row of 5 houses had been demolished to make way for a govt sponsored development. Has been idle for a while. This week they came and put a fairly permanent looking fence around the land. Assume they are mothballing it for a fair while.
Another section was building 6 townhouses but never got past the wooden frames. Has been idle over summer. I wonder how long framing will last uncovered.
Maybe but its pretty normal down there to secure the site.
Yeah I know, but this thing is pretty permanent looking. We'll see.
OMG - Ashley Church is delusional, he really thinks that the wokeness at RBNZ is the problem...... no its not its the fact that property needs low interest rates to survive, and as they say... Kansas is going bye bye....... what he does not get is that in an emergency yes interest rates get cut low but credit gets REAL HARD TO GET........ Spruikers are like Zombies
I think he’s totally losing the plot. He’s not writing for One Woof anymore?
His ‘property portfolio’ is probably getting decimated.
He's posting about the 'end of times' on LinkedIn. Apparently he's a Christian.
There you go.
Property is crashing so it *must* be the end of times.
It’s a sign.
😂
Same Church as Luxon?
Hipkins has interests in 3 houses.
If its good for the goose its good for the other goose
Confessing to listening to Ashley on the newstalk zb takes balls. Its almost like confessing to being a christian
🤭
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