There was a jump in activity at the latest auctions, even though it was the first week of the school holidays.
Interest.co.nz monitored 225 auctions throughout the country over the week from 15-21 April, up from 144 the previous week.
Of the 225 properties on offer, 75 were sold under the hammer, giving an overall sales rate of 33%, up from 29% the previous week.
There also appeared to be an improvement in the prices achieved, with 40% of the properties that sold achieving prices greater than or equal to their most recent rating valuations, almost double the 22% of sales that reached or exceeded their rating valuations the previous week.
Details of the individual properties offered at all of the auctions monitored by interest.co.nz, including the prices achieved for the properties that sold and their rating valuations, are available on our Residential Auction Results page.
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67 Comments
Hmmm, let’s see what happens next week, and a few more after that. Markets don’t rise or fall in straight lines…I’d say this week is an aberration
Yes it could be an aberration in the ratio of those selling at or above CV.
Working through these results I figure there were 21 homes out of a total 75 sales. Which is 28 pct not 40 percent. Its still a steadily improving stat from the week before
Northland 1, Auckland 12, Waikato 2, Canterbury 5, Gisborne 1
FFS guys this is data from a small portion of the auction market and even smaller proportion natonal sales data
I thinks this is just Barfoots data ...and if they are losing market share to Ray White, Harcourts, Bayleys, etc.. then it is only an indication of a small portion one small part of the total market.
Every month 67+ % go unsold thru this data set. Is that the same across all national auctions across all RE organisations?.
The REINZ are such sly dogs. They have all the data and only share the portion that suits thier spin amd protection of thier own greedy interests.
Yet they are the go to for info. Info they spin!
This isn't exclusively Barfoot data since they only operate in the top part of the North Island. Interest effectively scraps the data from those agencies that have t available online.
Don't worry, it's only one swallow not a skyfull
There is nothing really exciting to see in the auctions in Auckland this week. No distressed sales getting super low prices. A surprising number got very close to their QV estimations. Nice properties, without issues, tend to still sell and for surprising amounts.
Sellers who bought a number of years ago are generally realistic in their price expectations and those looking for a bargain should take note of this. If they bought the house 20 years ago for 145k your chances of a bargain could be good.
I keep note of houses that appear to get good offers but are passed in. I am watching about 25 of these and I note that 8 have since sold.
Demographics will play a part in ensuring there is considerable ongoing supply on offer from the equity rich. That, combined with the oncoming distressed sales, will further expand the overhang. Fixed rates are rolling over to higher %, unemployment is on the rise. Baring a deep recession/depression, inflation and interest rates will likely remain stubbornly elevated. For a growing number, equity has vanished, the housing "ATM" is now broken so saved cash is once again becoming King.
People who bought full sections in average suburbs for premium prices are likely to get burnt if forced to sell now. I see one took a hit of almost half a million dollars in the week just gone.
In the inner quality suburbs 800 sq m is only getting about $2200 per sq m bid, vs 4k plus at peak. Sections that are on flood planes or indeed anything to do with possible flooding are getting no bids at all, these buyers are screwed.
House hunting is not like buying a new appliance and there's a bunch that are all the same at briscoes just waiting for you
by HW2 | 22nd Apr 23, 6:52am 1682103171
House hunting is not like buying a new appliance and there's a bunch that are all the same at Briscoes just waiting for you
Are you saying houses are in short supply? In the real world there are "bunches" of overpriced homes everywhere and just like Briscoes, the vendor would like you to think you're getting a bargain, yet in reality - you're not. House prices are falling as they're unaffordable and for the average investor, declining mortgage stats reveal they're not as invest worthy as yesteryear.
What HW2 is saying is there isn't a glut of houses you want to buy.
lol! Now HW2 needs a spokesperson - priceless.
Yeah I'm back on HW2's side. Things wont be as bad as people hope.
Cheers Zachary
How did the pat on your back feel?
I just hope my comments are worthy of support, no pressure. But its all good, the facts whether good or bad will tell their own story
Would be very interesting to know how many houses have been pulled from the market after not selling over the past 6 months. I suspect this number is large and vendors are waiting till end of the year/summer 2024 to list again. This factor along with more forced sales as people roll off lower rates will expedite the growing inventory for sale.
Latent supply
Are you HW2? You'll sound the same more often than not
Quality builds in decent locations are in very short supply. I guess if you cannot tell one house from another you have plenty of choice but those who are "Engineers" and can tell the difference, it becomes a short list very fast.
"Quality builds in decent locations are in very short supply"
Quality builds in decent locations at a reasonable price are in very short supply.
Fixed it for you.
Or you could just say "builds at a reasonable price are in very short supply"
Not really. You become prepared to pay MORE if you recognise a quality build, its a simple as that. Everything is only worth what someone else is prepared to pay for it. If you cannot see it from the top down from the roofing to the copper gutters on down then to you a house is just a house.
Thats about 1% of the market..... the rest is sh&^house, and they tend to build then keep not spec build so its a tiny % of the market. Its not for sale right now!
Not disputing that people are willing to pay MORE than a shit build.
I'm saying that people are still expecting too much, even for quality builds. Unless you think that the houses not selling are all low quality builds...
Bullshit!? They are everwhere,
0 of 5 sold on the coromandel. That's surprising. I wonder if the condition of the roads since the storm has anything to do with it. I drove to napier on Thursday for work along the Napier/Taupo road. The damage is shocking. .. particularly that eskview area before napier, very sad to see.
Big jump.. 29% to 33%.
So 67% are still not sold because?
Amazing in Sydney / Melbourne the clearance rate is mid 70% ish
Mortgagee sales must have started.
Watch this space over the next 12 months.
Another negative for house prices, I think it is plausible Australian Government changes to citizenship rules will attract even more of our brightest and finest talent.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/new-zealanders-in-australia-to-g…
Of the 700k nz citizens in Aus, one quarter (170k) were not born here, they came from somewhere else before ending up in aus. Back door entry
At the expense of NZ house prices, green shoots in Australia then? Good point however not a guaranteed savior for the Australian market either.
I note you edited to remove "house prices bottoming out in OZ"
Its better not to reinforce that
"Its better not to reinforce that"
Why not? Because you say so? Who knows, they might well "bottom out" early at the expense of ours freefalling. Stagnating prices for 20-years might well be their destiny.
NZ's appeal as a backdoor entry to Australia must surely be in decline
Australia are desperate for immigrants - you can go straight there and bypass NZ
Cost of living in NZ has risen massively and is now incredibly high. It used to be much cheaper. The higher costs means NZ is less likely to appeal to immigrants to come and spend over 5-7 sucking up high costs trying to get NZ citizenship.
Tertiary education route is not as appealing for same reason and NZ Uni standards appear to be slipping, may as well go directly to OZ.
I thinks this is big.
A lot of home grown kiwis have headed to Aussie for the better deal higher wages and lower house prices offer. Many imported kiwis tried to get to Aussie first but failed and came to NZ. I suspect there could be a real push by imported kiwis to finally get to Aussie, making nurses, Dr's, IT people, tradesmen etc more scarce than they already are.
The only better deal Chippy can offer without blasting inflation into orbit in this equation is lower house prices. Let's face it doubling wages would see inflation at 50% plus.
My partner is slowly warming up to the idea of making the move to Oz. One less of each a registered nurse and an engineer, also one less couple with good incomes who have the ability to purchase a quality house. I can imagine many others in similar positions are thinking the same. The loss of a nurse for NZ is not a good thing.
Yes, for many of our best, after the announcement, Australia just become even more attractive. If outflows ramp up, it is possible rents could come under even greater pressure. By in large, Landlords have already lost the the power to pass on the true cost of hasty financial decisions to tenants. This is why rents are lagging inflation.
The best already had a pathway to residency and citizenship, as there was a minimum income threshold.
Its the other essential workers that keep us ticking along who we could lose even faster. Not enough local truck and bus drivers here so we import them. In two years they can head to Oz as nz citizens.
Btw I don't find that rents are lagging. The major suburb I focus on has much fewer than usual rentals at the mo. Usually 20 two bed, now 6 and only 5 three bedroom. Perhaps because its central and affordable but still reasonable quality.
"When you compare pay, conditions and lifestyle, the rational question isn’t why a young person would consider moving to Oz. It’s why wouldn’t they?"
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/jack-tame-the-hidden-pitfall-in-…
Chippie is quoted as saying "he is not seeing a mass exodus of kiwis leaving". With comments like that Chippie is starting to squirm I reckon
I wonder what elbow (albanese) might be seeing and thinking. Check mate!
"he is not seeing a mass exodus of kiwis leaving" That carries as much weight as "there is no rust in this car that I can see" lol!
Time will surely tell....
We thankfully have a RBNZ Governor with the hide of a rhinoceros.
That is what will determine the future of our economic settings, and so property prices.
And what was the first thing I thought of when I saw this article? "I wonder what Anastasia Clearwater is doing this morning?" and until we all think that way (who cares what the property prices are doing) the adjustment is not over.
Unfortunately all I can see is 75 people who will see property purchased lose value at a alarming rate.just the same as people who purchased this time last year are around 20% down.
91 Pah Road, Epsom - Sold $1,790,000 - April 2023
Capital value $2,775,000
QV's estimated market value $2,490,000
First time on the market in 61 years, an original three-bedroom bungalow on an expansive site.
Mixed URBAN Housing Zoning 868 m2 site in this very sought-after location
Long before all the Covid disruption and fiscal mismanagement, these central city sections were priced around $2000 per SQM. I guess we are back to reality now (868sqm x $2000 = $1,736,000)
This had better be an anomaly otherwise Auckland property is in for a very rough winter. Then an even tougher summer when it pours on the market.
Looks like a narrow site 14ish mtrs wide. Maybe that negatively affected the value
We are at early 2017 prices for these sites, I think the 2017 CV will play a big part in defining the bid.... its 40% + off the peak.
Great buy...someone was bold enough to move forward and pick up a deal.
Looking at the bidding for that place shows there was more than one bidder too as it went up 70k once it hit the market. The vendor was willing to let it go for $1,720,000.
It is worth saying that it is likely we return to the 2017 price as the median trend. We likely will got lower for a short period, ~2014-2015 prices for a year at the very bottom in a few years time. Circa 2025-2026.
The more of these sales at this price the more pressure on those who overpaid for them. Banks and websites follow the algorithm of recent sales and sqm rates which is down. Housing overall still dropping so the sale of completed developments will continue to be under pressure to achieve profit, or fold mid project as many are.
Untill OCR stops rising this pressure will keep building. If you get wrecked, it was your own doing.
Almost the only buyer of 1.7million dollar land plus 100k improvement type houses are developers. or someone who buys right at the bottom and waits 10 years, but you have to have a partner that can tolerate shower curtains over old iron baths etc and know anything you spend on the house is wasted money....
There's a sentiment out there that the market's hit the bottom... I've seen a few that I know that have been sitting on the sidelines pull the trigger and recenty buy. It'll be interesting to see if it continues...
The weak hands fold and drag out the falls, they're just bumps on the road going down the hill. The few who make it to the bottom will have little competition and so much choice.
dp
"There's a sentiment out there that the market's hit the bottom... "
There was also a sentiment out there right at the peak in Nov 2021 that the market had hit it's new bottom and it was a good time to buy.
There's also a sentiment out there that a bunch of recent buyers are getting wiped out and may have to walk away from their mortgages if recession hits and employment/wages are impacted (had this conversation earlier today from a person who previously told me - for 10 years - that you can't lose with property and that prices never fall in NZ)
It'll be interesting to see if it continues....
Buying 91 Pah Road, Epsom in April 2023 for $1,790,000 looks like a real deal compared to the one below. At the time this sold, I couldn't believe someone could pay so much.
36B Buckley Road, Epsom Sold November 2021 for $3,475,000
Capital value $2,825,000, QV's estimated market value $2,570,000
HW2 has a point about the Pah Road site being narrow. I went past it the other day and it doesn't seem like an ideal site for a developer.
You do not know if the purchaser owns one next to it.
The one next door has three dwellings on it already.
Only two titles and they are cross leased
I measured it using earth, thats such a cool tool I've used a lot.
Btw I am not a developer, maybe oneday, so I dont know what the mixed urban zone allows in Auckland. Its probably quite lenient
We have a property which a different council recently rezoned as intensive and allows min 6 storey, 1 metre from the boundary. Its got lovely lake views, but even if I wanted I can't sell because of 5 year brightline. When DGM were getting angsty about falling values there are situations where prices are increasing, so its not a one size fits all falling market.
No one looks their best during the winter. It's going to be an interesting 6 months.
And watching the clowns in Wellington (under?) perform will be equally so.
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