Immigrants continue to play a growing role in the housing market, according to the latest figures from Statistics New Zealand.
These show that people in NZ on residence visas (migrants) purchased 14,538 dwellings in the 12 months to June this year..
That was down from 15,141 for the year to June 2022 and 15,888 in the year to June 2021. But because total housing sales declined at an even greater rate over the last three years, migrants' share of the market actually increased.
In the year to June 2018, people on residence visas accounted for 7.9% of dwelling sales. That has increased every year since to 12.4% in the 12 months to June 2023 (see table below).
However the figures also show migrants are less likely to be sellers of residential properties. People on residence visas accounted for between 4.2% and 4.8% of residential vendors over the five years from 2018 to 2023 (June years).
That suggests the biggest impact migrants are having on the housing market is on the demand side for residential properties.
However total housing market activity involving migrants is likely to be even higher than the above figures suggest, because they only capture migrants who have residence visas.
On top of that, many thousands of migrants will have become NZ citizens, and although the Statistics NZ data captures sales and purchases by NZ citizens, it does not differentiate between citizens who were born here and those who migrated here from another country.
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70 Comments
14000 plus families have decided to stay long term
Thats quite a lot.... wait a second
Call me glass half-full but I see this as our economy diversifying its exports away from agriculture and towards housing exports.
Jokes aside: this article cherry picks data that suit the "housing is in hot demand" narrative. Nearly a 100k primary applicants were granted residency on a rolling basis in the last 18 months under Labour's 2021 programme plus another 25k via other categories.
Yes, and likely to be distorted by the fact the market is so sluggish.
ie. While many of the immigrants are low-medium income, and unable to buy, a small proportion will be higher income and able to buy. That’s a small proportion of quite a large number, though. With the market so sluggish, this pushes up the %.
Jokes aside: this article cherry picks data that suit the "housing is in hot demand" narrative. Nearly a 100k primary applicants were granted residency on a rolling basis in the last 18 months under Labour's 2021 programme plus another 25k via other categories.
Why not measure their rate (not volume) of purchases compared to the citizenry then.
Cherry picking of stats is quite common in the housing market. I commented on Monday about this Post article
https://www.thepost.co.nz/a/nz-news/350037772/buyers-flocking-back-lowe…
In the article it refers to 10 offers been made on a Petone house (indicating the market was hot, hot, hot). The house in question is a 3 and 1 property whose RV is $680 000 and its current market valuation is $580 000 - prime time real estate in a "popular Wellington suburb" for both investors looking for a bargain, migrants looking for a central location and first home buyers. I'd be highly surprised if it didn't have multiple offers - meanwhile a few streets away - a 3 and 1 which is asking $850000 - has been on the market for 2 months.
I'm starting to think NZ media drives the housing market purely for headlines - one week the headline is "hot market, get in quick, sacrifice your souls, high demand, immigrants " then the next week they can have a headline "people cant afford mortgage repayments - isn't it tragic" - rinse and repeat.
next week they can have a headline "people cant afford mortgage repayments - isn't it tragic"
Yeah.. they want an early conclusion that "inflation is not our enemy. We need to protect our people financial stability and wellbeing - let's reduce interest rate again "
The purpose of the NZ media is to sell advertising. They will push whatever narrative is the most lucrative and delivers the most clicks. This will alternate between greed and fear porn.
Don't forget celebrity and outrage.
Over the next century NZ will get increasing numbers of migrants because of climate change according to an interview on RNZ last weekend.
The introduction started like this;
"My next guest calls the effects of climate change the “four horsemen of the Anthropocene”: fire, heat, drought and floods. In her book ”Nomad Century” science writer Gaia Vince says — the solution is mass migration but it needs to be planned for.” Kim Hill interviewing Gaia Vince — RNZ
It is already happening on a global scale as we speak. The UN estimates about an average of 21.5 million people are displaced each year from their homes due to natural calamities, albeit some of this are non-climate related such as earthquakes and volcano eruptions.
Then there are other large-scale migration spells that are not considered being directly climate-induced. For example, there is consensus among scientists that a severe drought was the root cause of the Syrian Civil War, displacing millions of Syrians and leading to the 2015 European migrant crisis.
Name me a single person that has moved to NZ for the climate, because I can name people who have left.
Look at the Nelson City Council, of which i’d speculate half are migrants and came directly to Nelson for the climate. Sunshine, beaches, mountains, national parks all at the doorstep.
They left Australia/South Africa/Europe/Indian Sub-Continent for Nelson?
I think many New Zealanders don't realise how good New Zealand actually is!
Noosa, Gold Coast, Southern NSW beaches, Mornington Coast.. vs Nelson? Just no comparison!
You obviously don't work physically outside or else you would understand. Most Australians live in air con drive in air con work in air con then say don't you love this heat. Try working in 30 degree heat for 9 hours with all the health and safety BS on and you will soon realise. Brother in law (aussie) carpenter starts work at 5 am finishes at 1.30 and he is in Beewah cause of the heat. Then try inland were it gets to 50 degree at 1 meter off a concrete floor with no shade (Roma) then say NZ has bad weather easy to warm up bloody hard to cool down. Well not if you only flip a air con on
Having spent many a summer holiday in Brisbane (in-laws...obligatory) I can't agree more. Even leisure time is oppressive in that God-awful climate.
Indeed they did
Bruce Leanne of Trispec Construction. Shifted from Brisbane got rid of his construction business over there cause no money in it and corruption and shit weather shifted to Rangiora couldn't believe the weather and ease of doing business here in NZ.
lol yeah, cause of climate change. Is that also why hordes of young kiwis are exiting the country?
More migrants came in on residence in the last 12 months than the 12 months prior to that. However, lower numbers have purchased a property - why is that? That would have made a more interesting article.
I assume it's because new migrants, rich or poor, are better with their finances than the average Kiwi, especially on big-ticket items such as houses.
Doesn't take a genius to call BS on common ideas floating around in NZ's real estate market such as purchase price of a house is irrelevant if you're not planning to sell in the short run.
Assuming your desire is to live in a house long term, that's fairly sound advice.
If someone wants to live in a house for a shorter duration but for potentially less outlay, they can wait and buy in a distressed market, once every 7-10 years or so.
Or wait till our population, economic, and housing situation is in a state of permanent decline.
It seems only 10-20% buy a house shortly after gaining residency. It appears these permanent migrants have a different, more worldly definition of sound financial advice and aspirations beyond owning bricks and mortars.
Good for NZ in the long run I suppose!
However, lower numbers have purchased a property - why is that? That would have made a more interesting article.
Id have thought that'd be self explanatory, in a trepidacious market with rising barriers to purchase (rates and terms)
Just have a look at what's happening in Oz.. with close to 30% of sales going to Chinese investors, at a rate of $6million dollars a day! - many of whom are buying, rather than renting, for their uni students to reside in. Coupled with their own migration intake, and other countries 'investing', it could be pushing well over 50%
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12313043/How-Chinese-buyers-sn…
Because even though they have a residence visa, they also have to have resided in NZ for 12 months before being eligible to buy a house (they must be "ordinarily resident"). This means that this years influx of migrants can buy houses next year.
https://www.linz.govt.nz/guidance/overseas-investment/buying-residentia…
To be ordinarily resident in New Zealand for residential property purchases, you must meet all four criteria:
- have a residence class visa
- have lived in New Zealand for at least the last 12 months
- have been physically present in New Zealand for at least 183 days of the last 12 months, and
- be a tax resident of New Zealand.
So much for all the immigrants arriving in NZ being as broke AF
If they are not buying then they are renting, this only pushes house prices one way.
Dear Greg,
A question for you. The reporting of housing statistics is all over the place. There are macro articles discussing averages and medians. Selective articles focus on a particular statistic predicting the market has turned (Tony Alexander).
The reality is probably more nuanced. Would it be possible for someone (perhaps yourself) to tell a story form the combined data?
Something like
- x% first home buyers
- y% migrants
- z% luxury
- zz% Investors
- zzz% existing homes owner movements (downsizing, estate sales, etc)
Some of these categories overlap or perhaps don't have data captured for them
But there is a story to be told of baseline activity (migrants, existing, luxury) and variable (first home, migrants, investors)
That way readers would gain a better understanding of market trends
Your thoughts appreciated
TIm
What's the point ? Nobody cares. The only thing that people are interested in, comes out the bottom of the funnel as house prices.
It's complex. You wouldn't understand...
Its called "Paralysis by Analysis" and I have seen people waste hours on it and then still do nothing. You want the bottom line and can cut to the chase most of the time and still make the right decision. Reminds me of people on here still chasing data and still have not bought a house 20 years later. Don't waste other peoples time mate, just waste your own.
Hey zwifty some of us are very happy renters. When the time comes and the right house comes along I might just decide I want to join the homeowners ranks. For now I'm making more money and saving big bucks by not owning. End of story (short story)
Buy this year🙂
Just 5 months left. The market won't recover there's too much against it
Now's the time to buy, when interest rates are up. House prices have come back a lot, the notion that house prices will be in the doldrums for years is codswallop.
Hasn't ever happened and never will.
Agreed, could potentially be a big shake up politically after the election when National get in. Expect houses to start rising again next year.
Historically a lot from Aussie, UK, and parts of Asia. Any data break down on where the money is originating from?
Yep.. Kiwis getting bought out of their own country. 😁😁😁.
Who would have thought that to happen. The greedy generation of the bloomers, the politicians they elected and the policies they made.
Just a messenger. Don't shoot me.
it's similar in most western countries I would imagine, it's not just Kiwis. Have you looked at the Sydney or Melbourne housing markets for example? In Australia, on top of the insane house prices one will also have to fork out many tens of thousands in stamp duty on an average priced house. Even if you are a first home buyer you could still end up paying over 50k in tax (stamp duty) when you buy a million dollar property (this is probably average for places like Sydney/melbourne). One could argue that it's harder for young people to buy in Aus than in NZ, or if not harder than at least it's not much easier than it is for young Kiwis in NZ.
Every country has implemented open border policies. Unfettered immigration. Increased humanitarian intakes. Its not a bug, its the main feature.
Families that are already here, that were occupying rental properties. As long as they're replaced by incoming migrants/natural population growth then all's well.
Observation - lot of delusion on housing around the water cooler today in the office.
https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/43995
Good grief, the man is shameless.
Well is it fact or not ? Maybe its just traffic jams in Wellington ? Not really any different to my prediction of a small window between now and the election.
Lol
It’s good farcical comedy, at least.
That is great news isn't it!?
In a country where there is an enormous shortfall in housing availability and the consequent inevitable high level of homelessness, every immigrant coming into the country turfs yet another Kiwi out of their bed onto the street. There is now way of looking the other way or spinning this. It is cast iron logic.
What sort of government does this to it's citizens.
Young Kiwis, I know the outside looks scary, but your only hope for any sort of future is to get out of New Zealand. There is nothing for you here beyond a beautiful countryside, that you will probably more easily enjoy as a visiting tourist.
Both National and Labour want high immigration, along with increased traffic, ques at hospitals, pressure on schools, increased house prices, reduction in salary, increased inflation the list goes on. Especially the type of immigration we are bringing in.
- laments migration to NZ
- encourages migration from NZ as solution
There’s beautiful countryside in most countries. Australia,UK, Japan, Canada all have amazing countrysides / landscapes.
Cameron Bagrie warns job losses on the way, thousands more could end up on benefit
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2023/07/cameron-bagrie-warns-job-l…
We are a benefit nation anyway.. A few more is not a big deal. Someone will pay 😉😁😁😁
Remember Robertson back in 2022 proudly stated that 80% of Kiwis were on some sort of government welfare during the first set of lockdowns.
There is no real Opposition to this ideology in NZ - just other politicians who want to line the pockets of a different set of beneficiaries with taxpayer money for no value in return.
He’s one of the better ones
Cameron Bagrie warns job losses on the way, thousands more could end up on benefit
So why do we need wholesale immigration? Clearly it has nothing to do with a shortage of available people, despite all the BS we are pedaled about the people with right skills. As we see repeated in the news, the people coming in are all told that skills do not matter.
The subject of this article indicates the real reason. Keeping houses unaffordable.
As I've been saying on here for years (and if you read Treasury reports), the government are terrified that boomer superannuation is going to cripple the nation's finances. So the aim is to bring in more and more working age people to increase the tax take and to reduce wage inflation pressures as boomers retire.
This isn't a NZ only issue, it is true across the world - at least other nations who experienced a post WW2 demographic boom.
You would think therefore that they would make some effort to hang on to all the good young productive Kiwis. I doubt very much that the low grade immigrants will do anything other than add a large further burden on to the tax payers still silly enough to remain here.
Old people are the most expensive to have in society.
Imported 30 year Olds, the cheapest, as it's hundreds of thousands of dollars to grow a New Zealanders to adulthood.
A good young Kiwi should be able to out compete a migrant. Language competency, local knowledge and networks, etc.
Yes but the good ones who are leaving have already incurred the investment to raise and educate them. A sunk cost that we are giving away to other countries. And as you say the young Kiwis are far better. I repeat that the ones that we are replacing them with are far more likely to be a liability and further drain on the economy and not net contributors. One of their main attractions is that they are low wage workers, so again will they contribute more in taxes than they consume? A big loss on the people that we are loosing and a big loss on their replacements.
But then the Govt allows all the working age migrants to import their elderly parents*, and gives them all a pension after 10 years along with free medical care.
*up to 6 people per applicant, I have no idea how someone can have 6 "parents".
Of the 143,000 here on a work visa, only 12,000 of them are on an Essential Skills visa.
it would be nice to know the % of residence visa holders in NZ to see how many are moving into and owning house against renting.
i would be guessing off only 12.3% that a high proportion are renting
so would suggest that many are weighing up to stay long term or move across the ditch
see my comment above. There is a 12 month lag from time of arrival to time of being able to purchase a house. These numbers only reflect purchases from those who arrived during Covid border closures, or who were already here and have obtained PR.
The housing market is still tumbling kind of crazy that average wage couples in New Zealand still have no way of purchasing a property from scratch in most of the country, this is a fundamental problem for society expect more crime as people become desperate to support family.
I’m not convinced.
I need to see some data with a full list of their last names included.
For all those who think that investors selling up will not impact the supply of properties in the rental market because of [insert excuse here]. Truth is, the rental market for young or low income New Zealanders is disappearing as properties end up in the hands of migrants in possession of overseas earned $$$, of which there is a never ending incoming supply of.
In the year to June 2018, people on residence visas accounted for 7.9% of dwelling sales. That has increased every year since to 12.4% in the 12 months to June 2023 (see table below).
Shout out to all the people who are worried about National repealing the Foreign Buyer ban, or opening the gates to immigration. Looks like Labour has already found a new way to sell houses to foreigners - allow all of them to simply move here.
I agree with what many others are saying on here - if you are a young FHB get out of NZ and go live somewhere else, there is no opportunity here. Two of Maslows requirements i.e. shelter and food are unaffordable in this country and both could be fixed easily with a few simple policy changes. Unfortunately their is a group in NZ that will never vote for that and we all know who they are.
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