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As many people are happy about rising house prices as are concerned, according to a BNZ survey

Property
As many people are happy about rising house prices as are concerned, according to a BNZ survey
<a href="http://www.shutterstock.com/">Image sourced from Shutterstock.com</a>

As many people are actually happy about rising house prices as are concerned, while large numbers are simply unconcerned, according to a BNZ survey.

The BNZ's latest monthly business confidence survey included a question about whether rising house prices bothered people.

Among those responding, 29% were actually happy about rising prices, 29% were concerned and the remaining 42% were indifferent.

"General commentary in the media, from politicians and from the central bank would have us believe that people are overwhelmingly unhappy about the way house prices are rising. But that is not the case," BNZ's chief economist Tony Alexander said.

The survey results come at a time when the Reserve Bank is widely tipped to be about to introduce limits on high loan-to-valuation lending as part of a new set of "macro-prudential tools".

Additionally, the Government has recently agreed to a housing accord with the Auckland Council, targeting 39,000 new houses in the next three years in an attempt to tackle the housing shortage in New Zealand's largest city and bring house prices under control.

Alexander said he didn't think the response to the survey question meant that Government or RBNZ attempts to rein in prices would produce a backlash.

"But it does mean that a generally silent majority of 71% of people are not concerned that house prices are escalating."

In terms of the actual outcome of the latest BNZ survey, it shows business confidence at an all-time high. It shows that a net 57% of respondents are optimistic about where the economy is heading in the next 12 months, up from 45.3% in the April survey.

"This is the highest result on record and gels with other confidence gauges showing business sentiment at strong levels," Alexander said.

"The survey would have captured any positive impact of Fonterra’s announcement of a $1.20 lift in its milk payout as well as the Government’s mid-May Budget.

"The result bodes well for employment and investment growth in the near future and as such has positive implications also for retail spending, the housing market, and Government tax receipts."

This month the BNZ also threw a new question into the survey regarding whether people are relaxed or concerned about New Zealand's rising economic relationship with China.

"Twenty-two percent of respondents said they are concerned, 66% unconcerned, and the remaining 12% indifferent. We can provide little insight into whether the 22% degree of concern is high or low but will over time be able to provide a measure of how concerns may change," Alexander said.

Another new question asked was on whether businesses are you thinking about borrowing more money for the business in the next three months.

"There is no measure in New Zealand of credit demand, only credit growth. So with this question we are going to build up a time series which may help inform the Reserve Bank’s monetary policy deliberations," Alexander said.

"What sounds like a relatively high 28% of respondents are considering borrowing more money for their business in the near future. Seventy-two percent are not planning on raising their debt levels. Next month we shall add a ‘Not Applicable” choice."

Latest sector credit figures issued by the RBNZ showed a strong surge in business lending.

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10 Comments

Wow...the BNZ allowing Kiwi peasants to know which direction govt policy is to go...

"Among those responding, 29% were actually happy about rising prices, 29% were concerned and the remaining 42% were indifferent."

29% making fat capital gains...29% hacked off they haven't...42% 'hung up'.

Guess which group includes the pollies!

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Guess it's time to withhold the accommodation supplement from the 29% that were happy about rising prices and hand it back to those of us who are the net payers of it.

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Any survey from Tony Alexander has to to be taken with caution.

His recent survey results that Asians were not influencing real estate was laughable and very questionable. I have been to many auctions on the North Shore and AKL and the Asian effect is the only game in town. Whether its Asian agents or Asian buyers they are  taking charge and for dear Tony to play this down suggests he has been compromised. His survey results from real estate agents seems to suggest he has forgotten the old joke - how do you know agents are not really telling the truth - their mouths are open.

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It's all driven by political correctness. An unrelated but comparable situation has just played out in the UK in the guise of a police operation known as "operation chalice" (you can google it) .. it first surfaced in 2001 .. the politicians were aware of it .. the authorities were aware of it .. the police were aware of it .. the 3 arms of officialdom were terrified of being labelled racist .. and said nothing .. and did nothing .. for 12 years .. if you enter into private correspondence with tony alexander you get a different picture .. he knows .. officially he doesn't .. wearing his bank hat he doesn't

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if you enter into private correspondence with tony alexander you get a different picture .. he knows .. officially he doesn't .. wearing his bank hat he doesn't

 

Do you not think you have an obligation of public duty to post such private views contrasting those made in public for monetary gain?  

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Who? Me?

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Some months ago Tony Alexander published the first of a series of monthly BNZ property surveys they were conducting wherein they were asking real-estate agents, among other things, to reveal the nationality of the purchasers of properties. Have you noticed there haven't been any published since?

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Strange! I was back in Auckland couple of weeks back and went to a wednesday auction at Shortland Street with a mate (he's pakeha).  There wasn't that many asians in the room.. nevermind I must have been to the wrong auction venue..

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It is probably worth highlighting there were 93 respondents to this monthly confidence survey. Which means 29% is 27 people. Of the 56 published comments attached to the survey, 12 are from people involved in the realestate area (Property Management + Real Estate). If the proportion of people responding to the survery is in proportion to the people making comments, and people in real estate are broadly happy with a situation that sees them getting higher fees, this would account for about 20 of the 27 people who are happy.

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93 - thats not a survey. Thats a whip around the water cooler, thats a whadya think after rugby training, a howd'd u think it will go in a bus queue. Results from such a shallow pool don't need to be posted with the grandiose title of "monthly Confidence Survey" as they pose as facts when in fact they are meer random thoughts.

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