Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Bank of China raised fixed rates.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Squirrel Money's peer-to-peer rates have broadened to offer a wider range of real estate loan-backed opportunities for savers. And some backed by personal loans.
TOUGHER I
The construction industry looks headed for a major slowdown as the number of new residential building consents dives, down -29% from a year ago. It is the lowest February since 2018 and is down -9.5% from pre-pandemic levels. Rising interest rates and falling house prices make residential property development a tough zsector tro be in.
TOUGHER II
The RBNZ is proposing rules that would encourage banks to limit their exposure to lending where climate risks are elevated.
TOUGHER III
Business confidence is unchanged in February from January. It remains slightly positive for managers when they assess their own prospects, but remains very negative when they assess the prospects for the broader economy. The vast majority of businesses (86%) expect further cost increases over the year ahead. And although they report slightly lower inflation, it is still very high and the shift lower is small. Pressures are expected to be intense in a high-cost, low-growth environment.
TOOL FAILURE
Please note that our deposit calculator has stopped working. :( We hope to have the problem resolved sorted within a day. Sorry.
BIG FUNDING SUCCESS I
Christchurch City Holding's bond offer was a success, raising the full $150 mln in a 5 year, unsecured, unsubordinated, fixed rate bond placement. They will be paying 5.043% pa. (or $40.7 mln in interest over the life of the bond). Meanwhile Contact Energy's $300 mln 6 year 'green' bond will pay 5.62% it was announced today (or $101.2 mln in interest over the term).
BIG FUNDING SUCCESS II
Today's Government bond tender was very well supported. 110 bids worth $1.056 bln were made for the three tranches totalling $400 mln. The May 2028 went for 4.25% yield, down from 4.35% two weeks ago. The April 2033 tranche went for 4.20% and down from 4.35% two weeks ago. The May 2051 $50 mln tranche got 27 bids but only three won anything. It went for a yield of 4.42% and lower than the 4.60% two weeks ago.
JOB VACANCIES SLIP
Job vacancies in Australia are slipping although are still at a relatively high level. However, this is the first quarterly decline since August 2021, so perhaps this data is telling us something.
SWAP RATES RISE
Wholesale swap rates have probably risen again today and maybe by about +10 bps. However, the real action in swap rates comes near the close. Our chart will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is up another +3 bps at 5.22% and +47 bps above the current OCR. However markets are pricing in less than a +25 bps rise at the next RBNZ review on Wednesday, April 5, 2023. But both ANZ and Westpac are expecting another +25 bps hike taking the OCR to 5% and its highest since December 2008. The Australian 10 year bond yield is now at 3.35% and up +3 bps from yesterday. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 2.87%. And the NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.23%, up another +9 bps and back to being above the earlier RBNZ fix at 4.17% and up +6 bps from yesterday. The UST 10 year yield is now at 3.58% and unchanged from this time yesterday.
EQUITIES MOSTLY RISE
The NZX50 has had a recovering day, currently up +0.9% near the end of trade. In Australia where the ASX200 is now up +1.0% in afternoon trade after a down start. Tokyo has opened its Thursday trade down -0.6%. Hong Kong is very little-changed in very early trade. Shanghai has opened up +0.3%. Earlier, Wall Street closed its Wednesday session with the S&P500 up +1.4% after holding high all day.
GOLD LOWER
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$9 from this time yesterday, now at US$1959/oz.
NZD SOFTER
The Kiwi dollar has fallen -½c today, now at 62.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are soft too at 93.1 AUc. And against the euro we are down at 57.3 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is now at 70.1 and down -40 bps.
BITCOIN HIGHER AGAIN
The bitcoin price has risen from this time yesterday, now at US$28,325 and up +3.3% in a day. Volatility has been moderate today at +/-2.4%.
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Daily swap rates
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This soil moisture chart is animated here.
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