Jason Wong
Weaker risk appetite as unresolved debt ceiling negotiations hog the headlines. Equities lower, modest changes in Treasuries, USD broadly stronger; NZD and AUD underperform
24th May 23, 7:48am
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Weaker risk appetite as unresolved debt ceiling negotiations hog the headlines. Equities lower, modest changes in Treasuries, USD broadly stronger; NZD and AUD underperform
The two sides still far apart as the US debt X-date approaches. Modest market movements in a quiet start to the week; US Treasury yields push higher; US equities push higher. NZD tracks sideways
23rd May 23, 8:11am
The two sides still far apart as the US debt X-date approaches. Modest market movements in a quiet start to the week; US Treasury yields push higher; US equities push higher. NZD tracks sideways
US Treasury yields higher after more positive vibes on US debt ceiling negotiations, a drop in initial jobless claims. NZ Budget conveys picture of loose fiscal policy, with large cash deficit, rising debt levels. S&P fires warning shot on credit rating
19th May 23, 8:03am
US Treasury yields higher after more positive vibes on US debt ceiling negotiations, a drop in initial jobless claims. NZ Budget conveys picture of loose fiscal policy, with large cash deficit, rising debt levels. S&P fires warning shot on credit rating
Risk sentiment higher on less fear of an imminent US debt default and less concern on US banking sector. US equities up over 1%, US Treasury rates higher for a fourth consecutive day. NZ rates higher on revised OCR calls
18th May 23, 7:42am
Risk sentiment higher on less fear of an imminent US debt default and less concern on US banking sector. US equities up over 1%, US Treasury rates higher for a fourth consecutive day. NZ rates higher on revised OCR calls
US Treasury yields push higher, market weighed by corporate supply. NZ rates higher after Westpac's 6% OCR call. Soft China data weigh on yuan and AUD; modest lift in USD
17th May 23, 8:08am
US Treasury yields push higher, market weighed by corporate supply. NZ rates higher after Westpac's 6% OCR call. Soft China data weigh on yuan and AUD; modest lift in USD
US Treasury yields push higher; plunge in US Empire manufacturing survey soon forgotten; mixed messages from FOMC members. Locally, Westpac changes NZ rate call to a 6% OCR peak
16th May 23, 7:56am
US Treasury yields push higher; plunge in US Empire manufacturing survey soon forgotten; mixed messages from FOMC members. Locally, Westpac changes NZ rate call to a 6% OCR peak
Weak China data drive commodity prices lower. US jobless claims trending much higher now, PPI data support weaker inflation backdrop. Risk off tone supports global bond markets and broadly based gains in USD
12th May 23, 7:47am
Weak China data drive commodity prices lower. US jobless claims trending much higher now, PPI data support weaker inflation backdrop. Risk off tone supports global bond markets and broadly based gains in USD
Markets trade cautiously ahead of Biden/McCarthy debt ceiling meeting and US CPI. Treasuries extend recent sell-off. China trade data weak. US small business survey weak. Big improvement in Australian fiscal metrics contrasts with big deterioration in NZ
10th May 23, 7:46am
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Markets trade cautiously ahead of Biden/McCarthy debt ceiling meeting and US CPI. Treasuries extend recent sell-off. China trade data weak. US small business survey weak. Big improvement in Australian fiscal metrics contrasts with big deterioration in NZ
US Treasury yields show further upside, lifting 8-9bps. Most major currencies show little net movement against the USD; NZD and AUD outperform. Fed Senior Loan Officer Survey shows further tightening in lending standards and softer business credit demand
9th May 23, 7:46am
US Treasury yields show further upside, lifting 8-9bps. Most major currencies show little net movement against the USD; NZD and AUD outperform. Fed Senior Loan Officer Survey shows further tightening in lending standards and softer business credit demand
Risk appetite recovered on Friday, seeing US banking stocks bounce higher and strong gains in US equities. US employment report mixed although still consistent with a tight labour market
8th May 23, 7:52am
Risk appetite recovered on Friday, seeing US banking stocks bounce higher and strong gains in US equities. US employment report mixed although still consistent with a tight labour market
More US bank casualties in the spotlight driving Banks down and weaker US equities overall, adds to the case of Fed being done with the hiking cycle. Market has increased conviction that the Fed will be forced into easing in second half. Curve steepens
5th May 23, 8:11am
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More US bank casualties in the spotlight driving Banks down and weaker US equities overall, adds to the case of Fed being done with the hiking cycle. Market has increased conviction that the Fed will be forced into easing in second half. Curve steepens
Fed hikes 25bps as expected; softens forward guidance on future tightening. Modest market reaction; market sees Fed done after 500bps of hikes. USD broadly weaker and US Treasury yields slightly lower
4th May 23, 7:46am
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Fed hikes 25bps as expected; softens forward guidance on future tightening. Modest market reaction; market sees Fed done after 500bps of hikes. USD broadly weaker and US Treasury yields slightly lower
Little fallout by another US major bank failure. US Treasury rates up 12-15bps; reverses Friday's move; ISM report slightly stronger than expected. Indigestion from significant corporate debt issuance ahead of Fed this week
2nd May 23, 7:57am
Little fallout by another US major bank failure. US Treasury rates up 12-15bps; reverses Friday's move; ISM report slightly stronger than expected. Indigestion from significant corporate debt issuance ahead of Fed this week
Softer than expected German CPI, GDP and Euro area GDP data drive German Bunds down 14-15bps. This supported US Treasuries, with US 10-year rate down 10bps to 3.42%. JGBs rally
1st May 23, 7:25am
Softer than expected German CPI, GDP and Euro area GDP data drive German Bunds down 14-15bps. This supported US Treasuries, with US 10-year rate down 10bps to 3.42%. JGBs rally
Global rates lower after their recent rise; Treasury yields down 5-7bps, German 10-year rate falls for first time in over two weeks. Second-tier US economic data paint softer economic picture and lower oil prices support the move
21st Apr 23, 7:47am
Global rates lower after their recent rise; Treasury yields down 5-7bps, German 10-year rate falls for first time in over two weeks. Second-tier US economic data paint softer economic picture and lower oil prices support the move
Currency markets well-contained; NZD continues to hover around 62 USc, ahead of important Q1 CPI data today. US equities flat again; VIX down to fresh lows. UK CPI inflation remains in double-digits
20th Apr 23, 7:52am
Currency markets well-contained; NZD continues to hover around 62 USc, ahead of important Q1 CPI data today. US equities flat again; VIX down to fresh lows. UK CPI inflation remains in double-digits
US equities flat and little change in US Treasuries, despite plethora of data and earnings. USD broadly weaker, reversing some of prior day's strength; NZD back just over 62 USc and little change on the crosses
19th Apr 23, 7:51am
US equities flat and little change in US Treasuries, despite plethora of data and earnings. USD broadly weaker, reversing some of prior day's strength; NZD back just over 62 USc and little change on the crosses
US Treasury yields continue to push higher on less concern about banking sector and stronger data - Empire manufacturing survey much stronger than expected. NZGBs outperform
18th Apr 23, 7:52am
US Treasury yields continue to push higher on less concern about banking sector and stronger data - Empire manufacturing survey much stronger than expected. NZGBs outperform
US core retail sales not as weak as expected; 1 yr-ahead inflation expectations surge to 4.6%; Fed's Waller urges more tightening. USD rebounds on all that; US Treasury yields higher led by the front end
17th Apr 23, 7:40am
US core retail sales not as weak as expected; 1 yr-ahead inflation expectations surge to 4.6%; Fed's Waller urges more tightening. USD rebounds on all that; US Treasury yields higher led by the front end
Weaker US PPI inflation, higher jobless claims play to theme of weaker US economy and moderating inflation pressures, adding in expectations of just one more Fed rate hike, USD remains under pressure; US Treasury yields slightly higher
14th Apr 23, 7:47am
Weaker US PPI inflation, higher jobless claims play to theme of weaker US economy and moderating inflation pressures, adding in expectations of just one more Fed rate hike, USD remains under pressure; US Treasury yields slightly higher
US CPI rises just 0.1% m/m; core up 0.4% - strong enough to maintain expectations for another likely Fed hike next month. US Treasury yields fall post CPI but then reverses much of that price action
13th Apr 23, 7:50am
US CPI rises just 0.1% m/m; core up 0.4% - strong enough to maintain expectations for another likely Fed hike next month. US Treasury yields fall post CPI but then reverses much of that price action
Mortgage rates were unmoved by the RBNZ’s big hike as traders bet any increase now will be matched with a cut later
12th Apr 23, 9:54am
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Mortgage rates were unmoved by the RBNZ’s big hike as traders bet any increase now will be matched with a cut later
US Treasury yields push higher, ahead of key CPI data tonight. IMF downgrades forecasts. China credit growth strong
12th Apr 23, 7:49am
US Treasury yields push higher, ahead of key CPI data tonight. IMF downgrades forecasts. China credit growth strong
US Treasury yields higher after solid non-farm payrolls report; other labour market data show clearer weaker trends. USD broadly stronger. NZD re-tests sub-0.62 level
11th Apr 23, 7:56am
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US Treasury yields higher after solid non-farm payrolls report; other labour market data show clearer weaker trends. USD broadly stronger. NZD re-tests sub-0.62 level
Weaker US ADP employment and services ISM data push US Treasury yields lower. RBNZ shocks with a 50bps hike. NZ curve flattens; market sees a good chance of easier policy in the second half, when the economy is likely to be deeper in recession
6th Apr 23, 7:58am
Weaker US ADP employment and services ISM data push US Treasury yields lower. RBNZ shocks with a 50bps hike. NZ curve flattens; market sees a good chance of easier policy in the second half, when the economy is likely to be deeper in recession