A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Wednesday; OCR unchanged by hawkish RBNZ; smaller bank profits under pressure; FHBs reticent; swaps jump; NZD jumps, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
None today here either.

IMMIGRANT INFLOWS KEEP THE PRESSURE ON
As universally expected, the RBNZ's November Monetary Policy Review did not change the Official Cash rate. But it did deliver a hawkish surprise. That caused the NZD to rise (after an earlier fall), and for the benchmark bond rates to rise. See updated changes below. ("Immigration" and "population" got 68 mentions in the main MPS document.)

FHBs RETICENT
Fewer first home buyers are taking out low equity loans. First home buyers remain active but are staying cautious on price.

TSB PROFIT UNDER PRESSURE
The half-year profit fell for TSB as revenue dropped and loan impairments rose. Their interim profit is down -35% on those factors.

ANOTHER BANK BOND
ICBC is raising $50 mln via a NZD bond issue, adding to an existing June 2026 Floating Rate Note. It has been priced at %, being 1.15% above the 3 month FRA settlement rate.

CO-OPERATIVE BANK INTERIM PROFIT FALLS
The Co-operative Bank's unaudited net profit after tax for the six months to September fell $4.3 million, or 43%, to $5.6 million as income fell and expenses rose. Net operating income dropped $840,000, or 2%, to $51 million, and operating expenses rose $4 million, or 11%, to $41.4 million. Between March and September deposits grew $119 million, or 4%, to $2.95 billion, and gross lending rose $138 million, or 5%, to $3.04 billion. Co-op Bank's impaired assets increased $987,000, or 28%, to $4.5 million.

AUSSIE INFLATION FALLS FASTER< BUT STILL HIGH
Australia releases a monthly inflation indicator, and the release today was for October with a 4.9% rate. That is down from 5.6% in September and well below the expected 5.2% rate.

SWAPS JUMP
Wholesale swap rates have probably fallen today. Immediately after the MPS, the 2 year swap was up +12 bps. The 10 year swap was up +9 bps. However, the key reaction will come at the close. Our chart will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged at 5.62% and now just +12 bps above the OCR. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down another -12 bps from this time yesterday to 4.37%. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 2.71%. And the NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -2 bps at 5.04%, while the earlier RBNZ fixing was at 4.97% which was down -1 bp today (but before the MPS). The UST 10 year yield is now at 4.28% and down -12 bps from yesterday. The UST 2yr is now at 4.70% so that key curve inversion is lower at -42 bps.

EQUITIES RISE
The NZX50 is up another +0.5% in late trade today. The ASX200 is up +0.4% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened unchanged. Hong Kong is down a sharp -1.2% at their open. Shanghai is down -0.2%. Singapore has opened up +0.4%. Earlier today on Wall Street, the S&P500 closed up a minor +0.1%.

GOLD HIGHER
In early Asian trade, gold is now at US$2047/oz and up +US$32 from yesterday. Earlier it closed at US$2041/oz in New York and earlier still also at US$2026/oz in London.

NZD JUMPS
The Kiwi dollar is sharply higher, up +1¼c to just under 62 USc. It hasn't been this high since July 21. Against the Aussie we jumped as well, up +¾c to 93.1 AUc. Against the euro we are also up +¾c to 56.3 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is at 70.3 and up +60 bps.

BITCOIN FIRMS IN USD
The bitcoin price has moved back up today, now at US$38,016 and +2.2% higher than this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.1%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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