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REINZ reports 12% slump in sales volumes in June, but median price up 1.4%
The Real Estate Institute of New Zealand has reported there were 4,575 houses sold in June, down 12% from May and down 24% from June 2009.
(Update adds comments from ASB economist Chris Tennent-Brown).
The median price in June of NZ$352,500 was up 1.4% in June from May and was up 3.6% from June a year ago.
The median number of days to sell rose to 45 in June from 43 in May and was up from 41 in June a year earlier.
However the volumes and the median days to sell were above the 4,305 and 53 days seen respectively in June 2008 at the pit of the housing and economic recession.
"The predicted post-Budget blues have not come to fruition and we are not seeing the forecast fall in prices," said REINZ President Peter McDonald.
"What we have is a genuine rather than a speculative market, with people seeking and buying homes to meet their own needs," McDonald said.
McDonald said the statistics should not be taken as an indicator individual house values are still rising. "They are purely the median of all sales during the month and can be impacted by the number of properties sold at either end of the price bracket," he said.
Related Topics
"The average gap between listing and selling prices last month was relatively small at only four to five per cent, which indicates successful vendors are being realistic in assessing the market value of their home."
The weak sales figures came as the Reserve Bank released figures showing mortgage approvals in the last week hit a record low and retail sales were surprisingly soft again.
See the full REINZ report and commentary here.
See the full REINZ tables of data here.
See the full House Price Index spreadsheet here, which show the stratified house price figures for New Zealand and various regions. They show prices falling in Auckland.
ASB economist Chris Tennent-Brown said he expected housing activity to remain weak for the rest of the year.
"Demand has weakened since last spring’s burst of activity for a variety of reasons. Tax changes have reduced the attractiveness of holding investment property, net migration is slowing, and interest rates have been rising," Tennent-Brown said.
"The tax changes announced in May do not seem to be triggering a wave of sellers, or additional. Other housing data show listings remain very low. Tight supply of houses for sale, combined with a low level of housing construction means that the market is not oversupplied with property. This is helpful for preventing a large drop in prices," he said.
"On balance, we expect prices to decline slightly over the year and for sales activity to remain muted."
131 Comments
I beat wally
I beat wally
Sorry Ben, I was away on
Sorry Ben, I was away on another fred.
LOL, well done
LOL, well done
So did I
So did I
Geez, another property thread
Geez, another property thread !! Plzzz make it stop, my head hurts ... ahhhhhhh
It generates internet
It generates internet traffic my friend. I can sell advertising then.
Haw Haw
This is true can we have a
This is true can we have a peice on a good performing equity or an perhaps undervalued opportunities
And I commented on the wrong
And I commented on the wrong thread. Bernard , Peter Macdonald appears to be running out of ways to manufacture the data positively .
Hey Bernard, month to month
Hey Bernard, month to month sales are irrelevant and misleading. e.g. May to June
It's well documented that median-averages often rise when property prices are falling, due (put at it's simplest form) to first time buyers and people 'lower' down the property ladder struggling to accept financial loses more so than those higher up the ladder (who've typically got more equity, or earn more, are older and have more chance of having savings). Thus higher end property sell more than lower priced properties, thus median-average prices rise.
Comparing similar months e.g. June 2001 to 2010 would be more useful than comparing May 2010 to June 2010. Though even then one has to be careful.
Average days to sell are so fiddled it surprises me that you give the propagandist oxygen and repeat their rubbish. You'd be better off quoting the 'Olly house buying confidence index'. It'd be as meaningless but properly more fun.
p.s. I do enjoy and follow your opinions on housing and agree with most of what you write. I just struggle with some of the 'facts-indexes' you feel are relevant to quote.
Less sales, higher price
Less sales, higher price properties are selling so a higher average sale price. Note the warning from Peter MacDonald about relying on theses figures.If more sales and more low price houses selling the average price would be down from todays figures. You therefore cannot put too much store on the figures out today. There can be no doubt the market is in trouble and is trending down and accelerating down.
But as we all know spring
But as we all know spring time switches a biological trigger in potential home buyers and they buy because it's warmer and sunny.
Yes, it's a law or
Yes, it's a law or something.
There has never been a better time to buy property!
Ya gotta get in now, before it's too late!
Property prices always go up!
MAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAATE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1
Provided the potential
Provided the potential buyers can borrow - yes, warm dry weather is the RE industry's best friend.
Not necessarily Kate. As you
Not necessarily Kate. As you say, buyers need money to buy, and it's not easy to get now, and properties are still very overpriced. Their incomes are likely to be unchanged from last year and may even lower in real terms with increasing prices. There are many properties for sale and likely to be a lot more in the spring when sellers hope you are right and people will be looking to buy, but with little available money and high prices we're more likely to see a LOT of unsold property, and only the houses sold by people willing to lower their prices (or forced to) which will continue to drag the market back down to where it ought to be.
If you have a look at this
If you have a look at this table;
http://www.reinz.co.nz/shadomx/apps/fms/fmsdownload.cfm?file_uuid=09D4F182-18FE-7E88-425D-F8D2CAFEA040&siteName=reinz
You will see that some markets (Manawatu/Wanganui, Otago and Northland) are close to approaching 2006 sales prices. I always thought prices needed to drop back to 2005 levels before affordability returned, but I thought that back in 2008 - and I suspect there have been some reasonable wage increases since then. So, I now think if you are a first home buyer, and you have the requisite deposit, a stable employment situation and an ability to lock in a good 5-year mortgage rate - AND if you can get a property at or lower than that 2006 price in the region concerned, then you should go for it.
On the second+ home buyers market - many of the BBs in the higher priced homes can afford to lower their sites signficantly - and will - because taking the lower capital gain now on a property purchased anytime before 2004 is going to become accepted common sense. Many of those BBs lost money in the finance industry fiasco and will now be thinking about replenishing their saving nest egg with the equity in their homes. They drop prices in many cases to pre-2004 levels in order to quit the asset.... and they'll buy down, also stimulating the lower end sales volumes.
Presently we have a mexican standoff because many of those presently on the market are distressed sales - highly leveraged (5% deposit) purchasers who bought from 2007 forward. They cannot afford to drop prices. When the weather gets better the non-distrsssed purchasers will come out from under their blankets, get into the garden for the tidy up, and put those empty nest homes on the market - at realistic prices.
Hey where are all you idiot
Hey where are all you idiot doom merchants? Oh i guess you have nothing to write when the news is positive for property! Losers.
If you have a shop that used
If you have a shop that used to sell 10,000 items a month and now you sell only 5000 similar items a month, is that good news? Turnover has halved and that's positive for property?
Depends - if I can only sell
Depends - if I can only sell 5000 per month because there is a limited supply, and because of the limited supply I could put my prices up by 1.4%, I might be happy depending on what my margins were ;)
But that isn't the case.
But that isn't the case. There is a glut and prices are falling. You can't spin this as a huge success story for real estate. Property prices are heading back down to where they should be and it's probably going to take a while.
If there was a glut prices
If there was a glut prices would have already fallen. There is bugger all demand and bugger all supply, so prices are staying relatively constant - for now at least. They could fall a lot, they could fall a bit, they could stay flat, they could go up - I don't think anyone could say for sure. If the worst recession in decades didn't cause a big drop, I can't really see them going down too much though.
You are spot on Jimbo. Its
You are spot on Jimbo. Its great to read some posts that actually make sense. Keep it up.
Come spring this year and the
Come spring this year and the market will be flooded with properties . With the increased inventory and stagnant demand the prices will tumble by the year end.
Well thats your prediction
Well thats your prediction Lee, but you have provided no basis for this comment. Do you have evidence to back up your comment that there is "increased inventory"?
It is not rocket science. In
It is not rocket science. In winter there is a slowdown in new property listings and during spring there is an increase in the inventory . If that is not met with equal demand that is when the prices will start to tumble.
Aren't most sellers also
Aren't most sellers also buyers? Therefore a surge is sellers is also a surge in buyers???? I don't know the % but imagine most people live in the home they own???? These people have to live somewhere.
Anonymous - "Property prices
Anonymous - "Property prices are heading back down to where they should be and it's probably going to take a while"
From $352,000 in November 2007 to $352,500 in May 2010 - it's going to take a vvvvvvery lllllong while.....!
Real prices are falling relative to inflation but the nominal price will probably just keep going sideways for a while longer.
2008 saw 10 months straight of sales volumes in the low 4,000s at the same time as interest rates over 10%, and that pulled the median price back to $325k by Jan 2009. I think it would take 10 months of the same volumes to achieve the same again...
To get sales volumes up the
To get sales volumes up the shops offer discounts as you can see clearly when you take a drive through town. Doubt that margins are increasing in that scenario. It's called deflation.
During deflation prices go
During deflation prices go down - not up 1.4%
Well, duh. With the exact
Well, duh. With the exact same item that is true. We are getting a median over a fairly wide spectrum of various types of houses in low volumes. Talk about grasping at a 1.4% straw!
With the low volumes 1.4% in
With the low volumes 1.4% in either direction is well within expected ranges of chance statistical weirdness.
They are in their caravans
They are in their caravans munching on dog biscuits!
Hold up, so if you don't own
Hold up, so if you don't own any property you're a loser?
Yes that's correct.
Yes that's correct.
Yes, the median, while a much
Yes, the median, while a much better measure than the average, can be influenced by higher end properties selling. But I doubt that the median has been influenced by more than say 1.4% - so at worst property prices are flat just as they have been for months now. But according to BH and all his mates the property market has dropped significantly in the last few months and there is a downward trend in prices - where is that information coming from? I just looked at the REINZ median graph for NZ for 12 months and it is almost flat. I am not saying that I don't think that property prices will go down, but what makes people think that they currently are?
Here comes the typical 'the REINZ manipulate the stats, its a ponzi scheme', blah blah blah...
The stratified mean is
The stratified mean is supposed to (and seems to do a reasonable job) control for the change in mix (more vs less expensive) of houses affecting the median.
Its impossible to draw much of a conclusion from the past few months data. Anyone seeing clear medium term directional positives or negatives is just reading a preconceived viewpoint into the stats.
I should add that I agree
I should add that I agree with certain posters who've said that the balance of risks is to the downside. It takes pretty heroic assumptions on our fundamentals to take a view that prices are going to re-commence rocketing up.
To idiot number 1) Lower
To idiot number 1) Lower volumes is bad for real estate agents, its not bad for landlords. Landlords only care about property prices, which have risen by 1.4%.
To idiot number 2) There is not a glut, there is a shortage, and prices are not falling they are increasing. Which article were you even reading?, you seem to be very confused.....or in denial that you have missed the boat.
Your abject desperation is
Your abject desperation is pathetic to behold.
"There is not a glut, there is a shortage, and prices are not falling they are increasing."
It's time for you to start reading things which were published after 2007, because right now you're just plain embarrassing.
I'm referring to things that
I'm referring to things that were published today you lunatic. Maybe you should start referring to things that evenutate outside of your depressed little mind.
Property prices are falling;
Property prices are falling; Fewer properties are selling; Those that do are taking longer to sell.
The bubble burst.
Get over it.
Yet another moron proclaiming
Yet another moron proclaiming that house prices are falling after just reading the REINZ stats saying that they rose 1.4% in the last month and 7.9% over the last year. They are NOT falling they are rising! What does it take to get it through your moronic head????????????????
Enjoy your bankruptcy.
Enjoy your bankruptcy.
Clearly you have run out of
Clearly you have run out of arguments. By the way, I'm rich.
I've got another name for you
I've got another name for you
How does the Auckland median
How does the Auckland median house price going from 470k in April to 455k in May to 445k in June mean that the prices are going up ?
Doesnt a lower price mean somethings going down ??
REINZ
"Auckland
After falling in April to $470,000 and $455,000 in May the Auckland district median house price has eased further in June to $445,000
Most landlords own in the
Most landlords own in the lower quartile. What if landlords are trying to sell but can't find buyers that meet their price dreams? Lower volumes can well be bad for landlords - shows they can't sell, and are too stubborn to meet market prices. but of course we know landlords aren't wanting to sell as they would rather run at a loss. Think harder there fella.
Values are not increasing,
Values are not increasing, "Average" price has gone up,
For the few comments I
For the few comments I receive on the links I give, you can give that as the ultimate doom indicator, and NZ property really is stuffed by just how little awareness there is of the size of the problem. I put links, but I think few people look at them and make rational comments. I may get a couple of attacks at me personally, but this is ad hominem, and further evidence for the argument that property really is stuffed. The fact that Meidan prices can say a lot of different things, for example. In stocks you look at VOLUME. If prices rise but the number of buyers evaporate, there is only one direction things are about to go. Duh.
About Median values, if 2 "average" houses sell for $350K (reduced from $400K), and another house sells for $1 Million (marked down from $2 Million), then the "median price" will go up... on lower volumes from forced sales of high-end property. Duh. Is anybody else getting this but me? Come on people!
High end property is the first to crash as rich listers strategically walk away or are forced to down-size their lifstyles. Since a lot of rich listers are not doing well, who will buy their property? On a percentage basis, these properties are the first to crash. But when calculating garbage statistics like median values, will push prices up. Hey! We sold 2 foreclosures for $900K each, marked down from $1.5 Million! AND we sold a house to a family for $350K! What a great month! Look at that median price going up!!! Be happy!
"Lies, damned lies, and Statistics" B. Disraeli
Any attacks against me or my posts just further justify the argument. A rational analysis of history proves out that it is not the time to be in this asset class. Forget what news sources tell you. I suggest doing your own homework. I'm doing for many of you, but I think you are afraid of clicking on the links for what you might find.
The only place to be as a property investor is at the lowest of the low-end, that is where the market is going- as people ditch the nice place, let it go back to the bank, and go rent in the bad part of town with another family in the same house. History repeating in economic slow-down.
"About Median values, if 2
"About Median values, if 2 "average" houses sell for $350K (reduced from $400K), and another house sells for $1 Million (marked down from $2 Million), then the "median price" will go up... on lower volumes from forced sales of high-end property. Duh. Is anybody else getting this but me?"
Duh - the median will NOT go up - it will be 350K. The median is calculated by ordering all the values and taking the middle one. The average will go up but the median is not affected by the extemes. But I guess since I argued against your increadibly stupid example then I am the idiot?
So what would you advocate
So what would you advocate for someone looking to buy a home (not for any other reason such as investing in property for an income).
You are talking to the wrong
You are talking to the wrong people - you will probably get told from one side of the argument that your house will be worth nothing the day after you buy it, and the other side will tell you that your house price will double in 10 years.
Some will tell you that you are much better off renting because the rent will be much less than the mortgage repayments which is true. I personally think you are better off buying because rents will probably continue to go up during your life time, where as your mortgage payments will be pretty fixed (unless interest rates go mentle). So in 20 years time I doubt you will regret buying even if it is a struggle at first.
"...you will probably get
"...you will probably get told from one side of the argument that your house will be worth nothing the day after you buy it, and the other side will tell you that your house price will double in 10 years."
A cunningly disguised bit of bias there. You could equally have said:
"...you will probably get told from one side of the argument that your house will be worth less than you paid for it the day after you buy it, and the other side will tell you that your house price will double in a year."
That is something you're just as likely to be told.
Most property bears don't believe property will be "worth nothing the day after" it's bought, and they seldom (if ever) say that either. The majority of bears base their conclusions upon facts and fundamentals, not hype and hope. But property bulls call that "negativity".
I was trying to illustrate a
I was trying to illustrate a point by using extremes, something the bears normally do themselves.
The problem is that the bears only consider something a 'fundamental' if it indicates that their gut feeling is correct. Somehow they fail to accept other fundamentals like the fact that we are not building enough houses to house the growing population may mean that prices go up, or that if prices don't go down much in a major recession then surely they can't be over valued.
Both sides of the argument are supported by fundamentals of some sort, but which ones are correct only time will tell. I personally see a short term fall but a long term (20+ years) gain - but if I had any money to spend on an investment property I probably wouldn't do so right now.
To me the biggest problem is
To me the biggest problem is that people seem to think that demand = "number of people who want a house"
Demand = Number of people who can afford to buy a house.
As interest rates rise and the effects of the core funding ratio start to really take hold the number of people who can afford to buy a house, and the total money available to spend on housing falls, house prices will fall.
Good point - but if prices
Good point - but if prices fall Bollard can probably drop the OCR again which should lower interest rates. But like I say I wouldn't be surprised if prices fell, especially in the short term.
Good grief, what a load of
Good grief, what a load of utter rubbish:
"The problem is that the bears only consider something a 'fundamental' if it indicates that their gut feeling is correct."
It has nothing to do with gut feelings and everything to do with the facts.
The house price ratio to average income is such that only those on high incomes can afford to buy property now, since banks are no longer lending the absolutely crazy 'no-deposit 100% mortgages'.
That's about as fundamental as you can get!
Don't forget that all those people who bought into the property bubble around 2006/2007 paid top dollar and borrowed heavily to do so, and they did that on the assumption that property prices only ever go up and never down. They will already be regretting the decision, but it's going to get much worse as values drop steadily for a long time while their mortgage just never seems to go away. It's going to be a hell of a long time before they can recover their money via selling up, and maybe even never depending upon how long it takes for the market to recover and their age, especially when you consider the colossal amount of interest they will pay on top of the purchase price.
These fundamental things are rather important.
How fundamental is it that
How fundamental is it that the average person should be able to afford to own a house? I can think of a lot of cities, and there are probably a lot of countries, where the average person rents - only the rich own. Unfortunately as the gap between rich and poor widens (and it really has in NZ in the last 10 years) then the rich start buying up all the assets and renting them to the poor. I'm not saying that is necessarily happening here, but saying that 'house prices must be 3x annual income because it has always been like that' is pretty similar to saying 'house prices must always go up because it has always been like that'.
Quite. Except for the fact
Quite. Except for the fact that rents are below the cost of owning here. In the stuations that you cite, they are generally, more. ie: the premium of ownership that 'the poor' cannot afford. Rents ,here, have to either rise markedly ( how's that going to happen in a stagnant wages environment?) or the cost of owning a rental will become progressively uneconomic, and the landlord will redeploy their assets elsewhere. ie: more rentals on the market; prices lower until the price/rent ratio becomes truely economic to investors.
More than dozen property
More than dozen property related threads in less than a week, Bernard seems to be very desperate to generate more internet traffic.
Looks like people are
Looks like people are confused by mean: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arithmetic_mean
commonly called average
and median: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Median
Those are different statistical measures. They may have that same value but in only certain circumstances.
Yes - if someone were to pay
Yes - if someone were to pay 1 trillion dollars for a house next month, then the mean (or average) would go up significantly, while the median (which is what the REINZ quote) would not be affected at all. If you have a spare trillion lying around Ill gererously sell you my house so you can try it out.
What if there were just 3
What if there were just 3 sales; 1 trillion each. median is 1 trillion. So do all the other vendors that didn't sell that month assume that their property value has sky-rocketed! Volumes speak volumes, but hang on to your flimsy 1.4% "rise" if it makes you feel good.
If there were just 3 sales in
If there were just 3 sales in a month all at a trillion dollars I would conceede that sellers may have set their asking price a little too high (except for 3 lucky people). There were however 4575 sales.
I take it we're talking
I take it we're talking Zimbabwean dollars here.
Lets say these 3 sellers had previously purchased these properties for 2 trillion each. Not very lucky selling at half price ... but still the median is high and exciting for those owning shacks worth only 1 billion $. Low volume median figures are pretty much meaningless. The story of the day is the low volumes.
Funny how some people
Funny how some people constantly talk about investing in more productive areas, and yet they spend hours every day reading and commenting property related news.
Because it's fun to watch
Because it's fun to watch desperate and fearful PIs squirm.
I think there is desperation
I think there is desperation on both sides of the agrument :)
It's not that funny.
It's not that funny. Property is quite a serious topic because bubbles can really screw a country.
Hi there the Man and RPT and
Hi there the Man and RPT and your mates, you might have been wondering where I have been. Just watching this site and enjoying the PI"S squirm and the inceasing number of bears wind you up. The news of late is very bad for the PI's. The market in the last month has really gone exceptionally quiet throughout NZ. We are now in for a long and generally slow drop in prices, up to ten years long. I rest my case.
News flash - property market
News flash - property market goes quiet in winter!! Who would have thought!!
But 'this' quiet? "down 24%
But 'this' quiet? "down 24% from June 2009". June last year was winter as well!
Winter 2009 had far more
Winter 2009 had far more sunshine hours and was a lot warmer ... so naturally all the buyers came out because of this. (I think David Attenborough did a documentary on National Geographic channel about this). So long term the housing market will be strong due to global warming.
HaHaHaHaHaHa
HaHaHaHaHaHa
Gordon. Great to have you on
Gordon. Great to have you on board again. An asset to the country.
Thanks The Man. It is nice to
Thanks The Man. It is nice to be appreciated. I see you bought recently. You must be one hell of a brave man to go against trends. I really admire you. Your spending is going to save this country from a double dip.
Gordon. Feeling a bit guilty
Gordon. Feeling a bit guilty as I think I am helping to keep the prices down by buying very well. Actually have bought 2 in the last month.
Definitely helping people out!!
June last year was booming,
June last year was booming, the market was bouncing off the lows of the recession. Its not suprising this June is lower. All you bears can do is predict, us bulls are just stating fact, that currently the market is rising not falling, regardless of volumes. Its the price that counts. If the market was crashing there would be high volumes as people were forced to sell. Low volumes is not necessarily a bad thing.
You are The Man.
You are The Man.
The not very clever man
The not very clever man
Time for bed grumpy.
Time for bed grumpy.
The web-site Landlord.co.nz
The web-site Landlord.co.nz quoted the REINZ results which included the following:
The median sale price in Christchurch increased to $340,000 from $277,500 in May,...
WOW. That is a 22.5% increase in CHCH property prices in one month. WOW. The drought is over. Property prices have recovered extraordinarily. Time to go buying again.
Or is it that a few higher priced properties sold. That CHCH median statistic just proves once and for all that the REINZ medians are not worth publishing. They are false and misleading lies and are a clear breach of the Commerce Act which prohibits misleading conduct in trade. Most of the time, the figures are not so distorted but this one from CHCH shows REINZ medians for what they are - just junk information.
So when the stats dont go
So when the stats dont go your way they are "false and misleading", but when they paint a negative picture for property they are gospel, right?
Hi I really do not have an
Hi
I really do not have an axe to grind either way except that I want the truth and the median does not give it.
See my post below.
The thing with statistics is
The thing with statistics is the more samples you have the more accurate the statistic is - so the stats for NZ will be a lot more reliable than the stats for Christchurch.
I don't think anyone is really saying that a 1.4% gain in one month means that prices are going up - but there really is no evidence that prices are going down either as the bears seem to think there is.
NZ median price up comparing
NZ median price up comparing June 2010 with June 2009 and Auckland median price $10,000 up on June 2009 which was same as June 2008. I thought BH said house prices would drop 15% or was that 30% by now?
Hi Crystal Ball See my
Hi Crystal Ball
See my previous post.
The median is meaningless. If an extra number of higher priced properties sell on the market, that increases the median even though those properties may have crashed in their pricing and sold at a significant loss to their stressed out owners. Who knows what is happening but REINZ medians cast no light on prices whatsoever.
The problem is that REINZ knows that fact. But they persist in putting out their spin in the hope that buyers will believe that all is ok. So the buying public is unsophisticated enough to realise the con trick. That is caveat emptor. Unfortunately the government goes along with it int he form of state owned Quotable Value. At least overseas there are competing house price indices which give different stories. To find out more, search dept of Statistics for house price reports in OZ and NZ. That shows up the NZ deficiency.
So in a years time if the
So in a years time if the median is 20% lower than it is now will you be saying 'perhaps there are a lot of lower priced properties selling so the median is lower' or will you be saying 'ha ha I told you so'. I think you will change your tune if the stats start going your way!
All stats have a margin of error, but you would need an awful lot of high end properties to sell to greatly influence the median of 4575 properties (see comments above about the difference between medians and averages). They might be influenced by 1% or 2% but I doubt by any more. And who is supposedly buying these high end properties? I thought no one has the money to buy them? Shouldn't it only be the really cheap properties selling, which would pull down the median?
The CHCH statistic median was
The CHCH statistic median was on 473 sales. It would only take a dozen or so to affect that median. I suspect from reliable South AK land agents that lower priced investment housing dropped in South Auckland about 30% some 18 months ago. I suspect that the wealthier folk with higher priced properties and boats etc. are now becoming really stressed. They could hold out longer. Now I think that they are stress selling. In CHCH, I think that explains the median going up by 22.5% in one month. The trouble is that medians do not tell the story. They hide it. I would just like to know the real story. Would REINZ please disclose the truth all the time instead of hiding the facts. Overseas jurisdictions do not have to put up with the truth about prices being hidden.
Exactly, BH is out of his
Exactly, BH is out of his depth. Great website but he shouldnt have committed himself to such a negative view, because he is going to be proven spectacularly wrong which will damage his credibility and alienate alot of his readers. Very informative, but just keep it balanced and real would ya Bernard?
Anonymous, I said at the
Anonymous,
I said at the beginning of 2008 that house prices would fall 30% nationally within a couple of years. I predicted mortgagee sales, massive finance company collapses and a disaster for property developers. Some of that happened.
The REINZ stratified median fell 9.1% between November 2007 and January 2009. The REINZ stratified median section price fell 21%. Some finance companies fell over in mid 2008.
Various development property and apartment prices have dropped more than 40% in many cases. Mark Hotchin told me in July 2008 that he didn't believe my forecast that values would drop 30%. He saw no appreciable drop in his values. He proceeded to try to keep Hanover Finance going on the strength of that forecast.
Guess I was wrong. His values have dropped much more than 30%.
In early 2009 after the worst of the financial crisis had passed it was clear the banking system was not going to collapse here, I revised my forecast for to a drop of 15% in national house prices from the peak over the next couple of years.
I'm sticking with that forecast.
We'll get there.
cheers
Bernard
Is the 15% drop inflation
Is the 15% drop inflation adjusted or a real dollar amount drop?
Bernard is a nominal drop
Bernard is a nominal drop man, from memory.
At least we know where you
At least we know where you stand Bernard....although the regular bloggers have known this for a while. Call me young and impatient but the big real estate stories are getting a little boring, anti-climatic although was fun to watch pi troll, the man giving ex agent and co a few upper cuts (and taking some).
How about a few stories on some of the rorts going out there. How about I start you off......the House Corp rort where grown adult working kids are still living at home with mum and dad housing corp tenants getting a great taxpayer ride or the insulation rort.....the subsidy where companies are measuring up 120 square metres of insulation at twice the wholesale price, only installing 100 square metres so every third house is free...I could go on...
regards
An article on housing corp
An article on housing corp would be good - where are the selling? where are they building? how much do people pay to live in one? what do you need to earn to live in one?
Yo Jimbo Was an article in
Yo Jimbo
Was an article in Herald last week,
I heard housing corp after 4 beddys with ground floor bathroom for older people and bigger families and thinking off selling Orakei propertys (Auckland).
Thx for that 28 y.o. A good
Thx for that 28 y.o. A good bit of info.
15% and more which is great
15% and more which is great for those looking at their first homes in a year or sos times.
Bernard Maybe I'm wrong here
Bernard
Maybe I'm wrong here but I don't remember you specifically qualifying your prediction of a 30% drop with a 'provided the banking system falls over'. My recollection is you believed it was more about an unsustainable affordability bubble that needed to deflate and would have happened GFC or not. You now seem to be saying your cut to 15% was because your 'bank collapse' caveat didn't eventuate. Some BH revisionism or am I mistaken ?
"I’m sticking to that
"I’m sticking to that 30% price fall forecast because the global economic catastrophe of the last 6 months is only now starting to lap at our shores and banks will be forced by New Zealand’s foreign lenders to curb most new lending" ( BH March 12 2009) . IT.
It's great to know you always stick to your forecast...till next one comes along
Thanks the Man.
Thanks the Man.
Just help disabled son move
Just help disabled son move out of Housing Corp flat complex inner city Wellington. $55 per week.
Cheap, nice view, was great 5 years ago. Now? full of crack head crazies, immigrant domestic violence...pee and cabbage flavoured lifts. Sometimes cheap is still not worth it,
28 y o
I agree, I like a good rort revelation myself. Its like everything has been said about house prices falling
(or rising). You want it ( or you don't.) You can see it happening before your eyes (or you can't).
Lets look again in 6 months. The back and forth is getting a bit tiresome especially when 3 property
threads are running at the same time.
Price up 1.4%? You kidding
Price up 1.4%? You kidding me, cant be....its winter time.
Because NZ credit worthiness
Because NZ credit worthiness is quite good compared to many western countries. The banks here will be able to get funding quite easily. I think banks should be able to hold off any drop in the house prices for another year or so.
Some great charts and data
Some great charts and data here show how bad things really are:
http://unconditional.co.nz/blog/june-property-sales-signal-continued-wea...
Bernard seems to have certain
Bernard seems to have certain memory issues:
"We forecast a 30% fall in the nominal median house price between November 2007 and November 2009" (BH Dec 04 2008)
"I’m sticking to that 30% price fall forecast because the global economic catastrophe of the last 6 months is only now starting to lap at our shores and banks will be forced by New Zealand’s foreign lenders to curb most new lending" ( BH March 12 2009)
His achievements have also been recognized by other media, this from Herald: " plunge in house prices of up to 30 per cent was tipped for 2009 by one excitable commentator; instead they headed up towards 2007 highs" (after winning last year's "The dicky crystal ball award")
He is on the track for another one this year...getting there
Half Price Sale. Is this the
Half Price Sale. Is this the beginning of a slowdown in the higher end segment?
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/personal-finance/3919810/Home-sells-for-...
"A central Wellington
"A central Wellington property has sold for less than half its original $10 million asking price, but agents say there is no sign that the top end of the market is collapsing."
NAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!
LOL!
So it's got to be a
So it's got to be a commercial sale right....but if it gets placed in the residential sales by pure chance...well gosh the stats would look soooo much better.
Well no it was a residence on
Well no it was a residence on the Parade...now we will see some action with the statistics.....
And remember the apartment at
And remember the apartment at the top of the Sentinel building in Takapuna recently sold for about half the asking price of 2 years ago.
Haw Haw
From back of my head that was
From back of my head that was a single apartment (asking significantly below gv), foreign owners, kiwi $ appreciated about 44% in a year. Besides Sentinel is a niche market.
Niche or not, selling price
Niche or not, selling price wise it represents the state of the entire property market right now.
It was never worth that much
It was never worth that much as explained in the article so do not get too entheusiastic Firsthomebuyer. Pretty good money still for a home in such a nice part to Wellington.
Agreed. There are some clever
Agreed. There are some clever people snapping up bargains right now during the usual slow winter period before property prices take off again in spring.
The buyer of this house was smarter than all of the negative losers on this site put together.
No such thing as a bargain in
No such thing as a bargain in this market. You are setting the market price for that house on that day however in a dropping market the market price will slip further so why buy now.
The purchaser paid more than
The purchaser paid more than the CV .... no bargain there! Less than half a finger-in-the-wind price does not make for good buying. The headline is sensationalist and did exactly the job the editor intended!
The Man at 10.32a.m Not
The Man at 10.32a.m Not written by the true "The Man" someone using my name.
Stop already! Sheeze -
Stop already! Sheeze - yesterday has gone, and I'm still seeing last years comments.
At least this site recycles.
The difference from last year
The difference from last year is the market is dropping and the momentum down is getting stronger by the month. There is no end to where it could go to.
Quite surprisingly, for me at
Quite surprisingly, for me at least, Alastair Hern has created a very insightful article about housing at
http://unconditional.co.nz/blog/june-property-sales-signal-continued-wea...
In it he shows that june 2010 isn't the best on record as has been claimed.
He creates four graphs that are helpful and intelligently use statistics, to show the mess the housing market is in today.
Bernard as per my comment yesterday, you'd do well to use similar sorts of graphs, rather then repeat the real estates 'biased data sets', of 'time to sell, properties sold this month versus last month', median prices etc etc.
He is just another negative
He is just another negative loser desperate to talk the market down so he can afford a house on his part time KFC income.
Why would you pay attention to his so called data sets when you can see the facts from the REINZ data? They are professionals who know what they are doing not some envious blogger who can't afford to buy a dog kennel.
No need to talk it down,it is
No need to talk it down,it is going down by itself as evidenced by the reducing median prices for Auckland sales over the last three months and thats with the cheaper houses not selling.If they were and there was more volume the median would be even lower. As Olly says go back to school.
How would you know? Have you
How would you know? Have you ever invested in property? Obviously not or you wouldn't have said something so stupid.
Everyone knows there is a shortage of property and interest rate changes mean that prices are going to continue going up.
The people who can't see that are going to be stuck renting from me forever. I should say thank you for paying my mortgages for me!
Get back to school Troll.
Get back to school Troll.
I presume you are addressing
I presume you are addressing this comment to me. Let me provide transparency in aswering your comment.
I am the CEO of Realestate.co.nz and the author of the Unconditional web site / blog. The website of Realestate.co.nz is owned 50% by REINZ.
The article I have written and charts I have produced are based solely from public REINZ data - anyone could produce such charts.
I have no vested interest to talk the market up or down. My purpose of presenting such data is to provide better information to assist buyers and sellers. All I want to do is build the brand awareness and credibility of Realestate.co.nz
The man at 10.40 a.m. Once
The man at 10.40 a.m. Once again not written by the true "The man". Flattery is great but please use another name.
Thank you for the link
Thank you for the link Factboy. Very interesting to see.
After all is said and done ,
After all is said and done , the 20% cash deposit requirement (which is about $80,000.00 on the median Auckland house)has halved the number of potential property buyers in the market.
Simply put , there are very few Auckland families with that kind of cash savings or liquidity to enter the market. Supply now exceeds demand , and with interest rates going up there will be less demand as even fewer buyers enter the market.
I don't know if this has been
I don't know if this has been posted yet, I am loathe to read any comments on a house-prices thread.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/personal-finance/3919810/Home-sells-for-...
The article touches on several 'topics' that Bernard has commented on. Hprices, the brain drain, and also baby boomers watching their children and grandchildren grow up in Australia. All in one article .....
"A central Wellington property has sold for less than half its original $10 million asking price, but agents say there is no sign that the top end of the market is collapsing.
The red-brick mansion at 298 Oriental Pde, which was put on the market in 2007 with an eight-figure asking price, was bought recently by Kyung Duk Chang for $4.55m.
Its capital value is $3.1m. The asking price had been dropped to $4.95m at the start of the year."
"Susan Bilbie, who has lived in the house for 30 years, said in January that she was selling to move to Sydney, to be closer to her three Australia-based children."
my mum will doing the same.
my mum will doing the same.
wish my mum and dad got a
wish my mum and dad got a house like that (4.5m) - I can rely on them for sure!