If a general election were to be held today on the eve of the Budget it would be too close to call, according to the latest opinion poll.
A slight drop in support for the ruling National Party means that potential coalition partners Labour and the Greens are now running neck and neck with a combined 44% support according to the latest Roy Morgan poll.
The poll, done via telephone interviews with 894 voters between April 29 and May 12 shows that National's support is down to 44% from 46.5% in the last poll, while Labour is up 0.5% to 32% and the Greens have risen 1% to 12%.
As of right now Winston Peters' NZ First Party would likely be the key power broker, with 5% support, up 0.5%.
Elsewhere among current National partners the Maori Party support, at 2%, is up 0.5%, ACT NZ at 1.5% is up 1% and and United Future at 0.5% (unchanged).
Among other parties Mana Party at 1% is unchanged and the Conservative Party of NZ on 1.5% is down 0.5%.
This poll fully incorporates the period after Labour and the Greens unveiled their heavily debated policy for a single electricity buyer during the build-up to the float of SOE Mighty River Power.
Roy Morgan chairman Gary Morgan said the election would be too close to call, "although an Opposition Labour/ Greens/ NZ First alliance would be slightly favoured".
"Good news for the Government is that the latest NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is up 5.5pts to 126 with 56.5% (up 2%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 30.5% (down 3.5%) that say NZ is ‘heading in the wrong direction’."
Morgan said the improved result for the Opposition comes after the listing of Mighty River Power on the New Zealand Stock Exchange last Friday – which netted the Government $1.7 billion after selling 49% of the electricity generator. The Government has pledged to sell up to three more SOE (State Owned Enterprises) with Meridian Energy likely to be the next SOE to be privatised later in 2013.
“The fall in support for National comes after the scandal involving former National List MP Aaron Gilmore was resolved with Gilmore’s resignation from Parliament..."
26 Comments
People might recall the drama around the poll of two weeks ago
http://www.interest.co.nz/news/64288/roy-morgan-poll-shows-support-nati…
I suggested that one looked like an outlier poll (having had the biggest rise seen in years). This poll is exactly in line with long term trends, which makes it much less likely to be an outlier as it is following the general pattern.
Winston Peters seems to have been getting especially stroppy with the Nats in Parliament recently. Unless this is some strange parliamentary mating game, you have to assume Peters likes John Key about as much as Sergio Garcia likes Tiger Woods. (For non golf followers, that is to say; not very much).
So assuming NZ First's clear default alignment is now with Labour and the Greens, then the numbers don't look neck and neck to me.
Early days, though, I accept.
It could be a strange political mating game. National having certainly been wooing NZ First hard, and Winston has been having a great time punching someone who won't punch back. At one point I think Key suggested there might be a joint thing in the Budget (Winston then got angry at Key talking about it while carefully not denying there might be something).
dh,
Interesting. A potential positive then from my point of view could be around asset sales. Winston has been steadfastly opposed to power company sell offs (and I strongly share his views on the subject); such that you would think that if the Nats were serious about cosying up to NZF, and Winston remotely stuck to his guns, then Genesis and Meridien would be saved from the pawn shop. Won't hold my breath, though.
Since you've mentioned Japan (other than the surprisingly high Q1 growth) I thought I should mention that the amount inflation (-0.28% per year) is outstripping growth (-0.7% per year is probably better for the population than the New Zealand figures of 4.43% inflation against 0.975% GDP growth. Japan unemployment is 4.5% compared to the New Zealand 6.5%.
The really baffling figure to me though, is the Econmic Value added by Sector- I can understand them being orders of magnitude ahead in industry manufacturing and service. But agriculture should have a vague relation to land area, and NZ farming practices are supposed to be state of the art, yet in US$ Japan's agricultural sector is $63.3 billion per year while New Zealand's is 5.691 billion.
dazz,
dh has kindly pointed out that Japan by many scores is not the basket case you would think it was by reading some media.
They have had massive current account surpluses (and so building of national wealth) for decades; while still having pretty good economic income per capita. All of their goverment debt is to other Japanese. Nevertheless they have really only started printing recently; and can print away this debt if they choose. As it happens I think their printing is more about competitive devaluation than other things, but that is an aside.
My own views, I have come to learn (as I've stumbled there on my own), are very similar to those advocating Modern Monetary Theory.
A couple of following links give some more background if you are genuinely interested.
http://neweconomicperspectives.org/p/modern-monetary-theory-primer.html
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2013/03/what-is-modern-monetary-theory-or-mmt.html
I believe Steve Keen is in the same space.
For a sovereign government with its own currency to sell offshore its own real assets built over centuries; for a few of its own dollars in return(especially when that currency is already overvalued), is the most absurd lose lose lose policy imagineable; apart from the foreigners to whom the free gift has been made.
For a sovereign government with its own currency to sell offshore its own real assets built over centuries; for a few of its own dollars in return(especially when that currency is already overvalued), is the most absurd lose lose lose policy imagineable; apart from the foreigners to whom the free gift has been made.
I guess the dependence upon foreign capital beyond that we which earn from our own endeavours is just beyond absurb and indefensible - hence excess unpayable foreign borrowings are a preceding condition of asset sales to those lenders.
Moody's downgraded the credit ratings of New Zealand's big four banks by one notch to Aa3 from Aa2 in 2011. Yu noted that a key factor in the downgrades was dependence on wholesale funding. Moody's estimates the big four, on average, source 37% of their funding from wholesale - both short-term and long-term - sources, with this including money sourced from their Australian parents.
"In all our research we continue to highlight that the New Zealand banks' level of wholesale funding is a key constraint on the rating," said Yu. "They (the banks) have improved their position (since 2011), but even with this improvement, the banks' levels of wholesale funding is still a key concern."
In January Moody's highlighted that, at more than 140%, the New Zealand banking sector has the highest loan-to-deposit ratio out of 13 Asia-Pacific countries. Of the big four banks, S&P figures as of December 31, put ANZ's at 135.9%, ASB's at 136.6%, BNZ's at 162%, and Westpac's at 147.4%. Kiwibank's was 109.9%
At 68 years of age, time is running out for Winston Peters. It is reasonable to assume that he has one more bite of the cherry left in his knapsack. Based on that, he needs to give a great deal of thought to what note he wants to go out on. Does he want to exercise some real clout, or does he simply collect his parliamentary superannuation and quietly fade away?
God help NZ if LAB/Gre/NZF are the govt. In reality the Nats have done a fine job in the past 4.5 years. Look what 1 green mamber has done to Australia!
Love MMP, the 5% get to decide who governs.
2 of the 3 parties have no electroate so they are not answerable to anyone (Gre & NZF).
If National has done a good job over the last five years I would hate to see a bad job. Unemployment has gone the opposite what they reckoned, they blow billions on irresponsible and uneconomic so called roads of national significance, run austerity budgets in a slump, cancel democracy for Canterbury and impede it in Auckland, operate just for the benefit of their crony mates, ... Also I don't think you have a good (i.e. any) grasp of how mmp works. It requires cooperation, not the old FPP elected dictatorship thinking. And it is simply untrue to say that parties with no electorate are unanswerable to anyone. have you never heard of being accountable to voters?
Totally agree TBS. I've said it dozens of times that these comments sections are littered with paid Green party supporters; they copy and paste Green party dogma on a daily basis.
A govn of LAB/Gre/NZF and lets not forget maybe Mana and Maori parties would be catastrophic for NZ. The only saving grace is that nothing would get done and most National policies would remain in place.
National has done a great job these last few years, it's a shame that their politicking/PR is not as good as their management of the country. Unemployment down, back to surplus, all done in the worst recession in 70 years. I do wish they would improve their environmental policies though. Labour, etc will promise the earth just to win the next election then borrow to pay for their promises. Only when we're in deep cr#p again will people turn back to the responsible guys; same sh!t different decade.
AndR - the NZ economy is doing a lot better than nearly everyone else in the world. If you think a Lab/Gre govt would offer NZ stability then you are totally deluded, would you invest in NZ, just ask yourself with the nationalisation of power etc. Lab left NZ with Structural deficits, should be into surplus by 2015, that is a real plus. Tax take is up despite whining about tax cuts to rich, manufacturing is not in crisis despite the lefts hand waving etc. NZD falling, no comment from the left here. Sure things have not been done perfect but I reckon it could have easily been a lot worse. RONS - people like driving and roads are required, indusrtry in the North will flourish with better roads. The city rail loop is the waste of money.
Yes some of the howlers are missing on this poll, obviously they did not like the news.....and the MRP shares are about 1cent above sell, so Mom n Pop not felling quite so left out anymore eh John Boy...? I mean they can go get em any ol time they feel like it can't they now...!
Now Winston, is the most precarious position, although he's enjoying renewed popularity with the Nats (who by the way swore they would never work with him), he has really fewer options than most think , unless he wants to go out a complete bastard and return for the Baubles of Power he so hotly denied he wanted. ...So it leaves him little choice credibility wise ,but to throw his lot in with Labour/Green hatching out a big input before the numbers are called.,
I understand the Nats are plotting a small coup in the land of I don't recalls.....now that would be one smug bastard I like to see get what he gave....unbelieveable isn't it to think those Epsom wannabe's would vote anything other than what they percieve is far right elitist politics when they wouln't know a Nazi is they were smacked about the head by one....., as history has indicated.....but unless John Boy's got a brilliant coup planned...that is what they will do...ha ha ha....tea Minister...?
I'm thinking Norman should take a bow in having done most of theLabour oppositions work for them, having conducted himself in an intelligent and stately manner, argued cases with reasoned thinking, and brough a certain level of wider acceptability to a party that was often just seen as a place for people who dyed their hair funny , or wore towling hats n stubbies.......well done Mr Norman irrespective of your political leanings you have done your job well and served your party with merit.
Really, yet christov is actually one of the un-blinkered and thinking writers in here, unlike yourself.
He's right on Norman...he's been very credible, easily the best party leader in there.
Now before you decide im a paid up green party supporter or astro-turfer as well I actually quit them earlier in the year as I consider them too lefty and not green enough for my taste.
regards
I agree on Ol' Norman. I often didnt/dont like the ever increasing left lean and lack of green but he's proven himself as a good leader and maybe might be a great one.
I thought Winston had sworn he wouldnt work with the Green's? Given how the NZF MPs vote I would think working with the Green's would be like swallowing doggy doo doo for them.....Nov 14 could be a fasinating month.
regards
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