Good earnings boost stocks; gold and oil lower; US house sales fall; El Niño imminent say Aussies; NZ$1 = US$0.860, TWI = 79.9

Here's my summary of the key news overnight in 90 seconds at 9 am, including news of a changing weather pattern.

But first, stock prices and bond yields have risen today in New York markets on more good earnings reports. The UST 10 yr benchmark bond yield is now up to 2.73% a gain of 5 bps.

However the oil price is down quite sharply in both the US and Brent bechmarks, and gold is off almost $6 and is down to US$1,282/oz.

US house re-sale volumes in March were down 8% from the same month a year ago with price rises moderating. The run up in the US residential property market seems to have lost its momentum.

Closer to home, in a statement released yesterday afternoon, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology has said that the likelihood of an El Niño climate condition this year is high, with all climate models surveyed by the Bureau now indicating El Niño is likely to occur in 2014. Six of their seven climate models suggest El Niño thresholds may be exceeded as early as July.

This has major implications for agriculture. For New Zealand, NIWA says we are not usually affected as strongly as are parts of Australia, but there is still a noticeable influence with a drier east, a wetter west, and a cooler, windier winter. It is a cycle that has been happening for centuries.

But the main implication is that Australia will be a lot drier, limiting their rural output. Soft commodity output in many other countries is also affected. Food prices tend to rise during El Niño conditions.

We start today with the NZ dollar marginally higher at just under 86.0 USc, 91.8 AUc and the TWI is now at 79.9.

If you want to catch up with all the changes at the end of last week, we have an update here.

The easiest place to stay up with today's event risk is by following our Economic Calendar here »