Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.
TODAY'S RATE CHANGE
HSBC today raised its one year mortgage rate to 5.95%, a rise of +10 bps from the hot 5.85% previously. SBS Bank also raised its Cash PIE rate +25 bps to 3.25% which yields the equivalent of 3.52% for someone on the 33% tax rate.
PRE-ELECTION SPENDUP IS ON
Election years have been known for their faster economic growth and this year spending through the Paymark network hints that the election cycle is in swing again. Overall, this years increased spending is double the growth rate of the past two. But it is mixed across regions and sectors, with Canterbury, Auckland and the Manawatu leading and the three W's (Wellington, Wanganui, and West Coast) struggling.
INCREMENTALLY DOVISH
Analysts are noting that every time the RBA speaks they seem to be setting up for an easing bias. Today's release of their July minutes didn't shake the feeling. And whatever they are saying or doing, it's not realigning what they see as an unsustainably high AUD. Steven may be trying to talk it down, but Wheeler knows that he would be wasting his breath/ammo.
THE MTF CAR LOAN SECURITISATION OVERSUBSCRIBED
Dunedin-based MTF got away $200 mln in this issue, a third more than their offer of $150 mln. The punters love car loans.
A DIFFERENT DECIMAL
Speaking of cars, the Aussies sell as many in a month (new only, used imports are minor) as we sell in six months (new and used imports). The difference is, their sales are slowly declining, down -2.2% while ours are up +22%. That will keep MTF supplied.
NZ THE ONLY ONE PLAYING FAIR
Westpac has reviewed our NZGB yields comparing them to "long run fitted values" (ie, where they should be). This analysis explains the NZGB yields well. But everyone else is grossly distorted by QE.
WHOLESALE RATES
Wholesale swap rates rose +3 bps right across the board today but the 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp at 3.67%.
OUR CURRENCY
The NZ dollar is 'consolidating' its giddy height. It is still at 88.1 USc, at 93.8 AUc. The TWI is still at 81.9
You can now see an animation of this chart. Click on it, or click here.
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