Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.
TODAY'S MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
There were no rate changes today. Banks are awaiting tomorrow's RBNZ signals.
TODAY'S DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
Mutual Credit Finance dropped all rates for terms 18 mths to 5 years by between -25 and -50 bps.
GOOD LGFA ISSUE
Today's LGFA saw a good, but lower coverage ratio which lipped under 3x. The 2027 offer of $100 mln was well supported and achieved 4.18%, about 66 bps above a similar term for NZGS. The LGFA will be pleased as the spread to NZGBs is narrowing.
A SURPRISE SURPLUS
Today's Crown accounts brought a surprise - for the seven months to January, the Government ran a tiny surplus. It may not hold but it wasn't forecast. However it may also signal that the promised surplus is in fact entirely possible, and more so than many had thought.
10 MONTHS OF RISES
National guest nights for January 2015 were 3.8% higher than in January 2014, Statistics New Zealand said today. This is the 10th consecutive month of rises. "Ten of the 12 regional areas had higher guest nights in January," acting business indicators manager Clara Eatherley said. "Hotels and holiday parks accounted for most of the increase."
PAST ITS PEAK?
It looks like housing loan approval levels have now past their seasonal peak. The data for last week was lower than the week before, and it is down from here to August, usually.
REGIONAL GDP
It's somewhat dated data, but Statistics NZ today released regional GDP numbers for the year to March 2014. New Zealand’s total GDP was $229.7 billion for that year. The North Island contributed 76.6% to total GDP, compared with 23.4% from the South Island. Auckland’s contribution was 35.3%. Wellington contributed 13.2% with Canterbury narrowly behind at 13.1%. The smallest contribution was from Gisborne (0.7%).
CAN"T SEE ANY YET
ANZ surveys inflation levels monthly. They report that ... "Our Gauge depicts split inflation dynamics. We’re seeing inflation from housing (and government charges) but a very benign picture beyond that. Amidst a solid growth picture this continues to flag the possibility of a structural shift in the evolution of inflation on some levels. If sustained, this would mean even lower interest rates for longer."
WHOLESALE RATES SETTLE
Today, local wholesale interest rates fell again today with a steepening bias across the curve. In fact at 10 yrs the fall was a marked -7 bps, at two years it was -3 bps. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp to 3.63%.
NZ DOLLAR HOLDS, BUT ...
Check our real-time charts here. The kiwi dollar has fallen further and is now below 73 USc. It is at 72.8 USc, at 95.4 AUc, and the TWI is at 78. You do wonder if the recent falls will satisfy Graeme Wheeler in tomorrow's MPS. If it goes below 70 USc it would be rational to think we would start to import inflation via the tradeable sector
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