Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.
TODAY'S MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
There were no rate changes today.
TODAY'S DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
There are no changes to TD rates either.
FEELING GOOD
Business confidence ticked up two points in March: the economic expansion continues at a healthy pace. Firms’ own activity expectations, employment and investment intentions are all high. ANZ is picking +3% growth over the year ahead. Agriculture lifted the most this month, though it remains the least confident sector. Next month could be telling, given dairy prices have resumed falling. Firms pricing all rose, but to be fair off low levels.
MONEY SUPPLY EXPANDING FASTER
Our M3 money supply grew +6.6% year-on-year to the end of February, the highest rate since March 2013. This is RBNZ data. Interestingly, notes and coin supply is growing even faster, +8.8% year-on-year.
HOUSE BUILDING WEAKENS
The number of residential building consents fell by -6.3% in February, on top of a -4.6% decline in January. The trend in building activity has noticeably softened in recent months.
HOME LOANS REACH $198.5 BLN
Housing credit is growing faster again, now up +4.8% year-on-year. This is consistent with home loan approval data. There is now 72.7% of these loans on fixed terms, up from 72.5% in January. Due for rate reset within the next year is $111.8 bln (56%), almost $1 bln less than in January.
NON-HOUSING APPROVALS VERY STRONG
Non-residential building followed up its strong January result with activity at an almost identical level in February. The total value of consents was up +25% from February 2014, driven by +57% growth in Auckland and +65% growth in Canterbury. Auckland’s growth was underpinned by substantial increases in office and storage building consents. Canterbury’s growth was more broad-based and featured sizable rises in hospital, office, industrial, and miscellaneous consents.
FULLY COMMITTED?
The recent spurt in the growth of consumer credit seems to be leveling off, even pulling back. This covers credit cards and other personal loans like car loans. It was up +6% year-on-year to February, down from more than 7% growth in October 2014.
SIMPLER TAX?
The Government today started the first two in a series of public consultations designed to modernise and simplify the tax system. You have until mid-May to make your views known.
Wholesale swap rates fell today, down another -2 bp. The 90 day bank bill rate is also lower at 3.63%.
NZ DOLLAR PARITY
Check our real-time charts here. The NZD is weaker against the USD but stronger against the AUD. It is now at 75 USc, at 98.1 AUc, and the TWI is at 79.9. In fact, at these levels we have reached parity with the AUD if you want to buy NZDs.
You can now see an animation of this chart. Click on it, or click here.
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11 Comments
Are we back in the 1970s again? or is it 1973?
High NZD
surging house prices
JK = Muldoon
low unemployment
EC dominant in world news
passport free travel to Australia (soon)
interest rates low but set to rise
Oil shock (in reverse this time)
commodity boom set to bust
Surging inwards migration
Kiwisaver = 70s Super scheme
back to the future.
What have we learned?
Thanks MB.
The excuse that it is locals competing against each other is flimsy to say the least.
Remembering that price is set at the margin, lower number of buyers would mean lower price escalation, if any ( as with much of the rest of NZ where Asians are not in the market)
Also immigrant money is softer because many have little idea of what real market value is and they just want a property that they are prepared to pay too much for.
One expects much more intellectual rigour from Shamubeel Eaqub
This is an opinion piece based on someone elses work
drowning in mis-information
(a) The Asia New Zealand Foundation's latest survey
It's a survey - not absolute factual data
who is the Asia New Zealand Foundation?
(b) The "Asian invasion" stereotype is enduring
interesting deduction Provocative
(c) NZIER principal economist Shamubeel Eaqub said there needed to be more transparency around the housing market so people would stop pointing the finger of blame at Asian buyers.
So true
(d) We don't know how much money is coming into New Zealand from other places because there is no restriction in New Zealand
So true
(e) From some of the partial data we have, it's far less than 10 per cent
Meaningless
Only a few over-the-top, price no-object transactions can set the dominoes off.
Is that 10% quoted an Auckland figure or a National figure?
(f) Most of the transactions in the housing market tend to be New Zealanders bidding up house prices against each other
Hang about - partial data? - survey? - unsubstantiated
(g) When the Americans were investing in the 1960s and 70s, then the Japanese in the 80s and early 90s, there was a lot of angst about all these new people coming in to buy all our stuff
Americans in the 1960's - really - how many - what were they buying - where? - were you even around then or is that just hearsay? - I never heard of it - that's a recent myth
Japanese in the 1980's - really - how many - what were they buying - where - were they buying residential property in Auckland and then seeking permanent residency followed by citizenship? - or were they buying in resort areas such as Russel and Bay of Islands and Taupo and Queenstown
How many people of Japanese descent are currently living in Auckland and owning residential Auckland houses? Is that fact or hearsay
I heard that the Marlborough grape harvest is down about 50% this season, dairy farmers income down nearly 50% and a drought on the east coast of Marlborough that is forcing farmers to sell most if not all of their capital (breeding) stock. Very bad news for Blenhiem.
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