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A review of things you need to know before you go home on Friday; Kiwibank raises TD rate; the Brits vote to Leave, cattle prices at risk, share markets drop, swap rates dive, NZD holds

A review of things you need to know before you go home on Friday; Kiwibank raises TD rate; the Brits vote to Leave, cattle prices at risk, share markets drop, swap rates dive, NZD holds

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

TODAY'S MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
AMP Home Loans have advised that their one year mortgage rate is to be cut by -10 bps to 4.19%. Their 2 year rate is rising by +14 bps to 4.29%. As this product is supplied by Kiwibank, it is possible they will be making similar changes.

TODAY'S DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
Kiwibank raised its 6 month TD by +40 bps to 3.50%.

LEAVE WINNING
UK voters are messing with market traders heads. The count in their Brexit vote is now about 80% done (26 mln votes counted) and while it is very close, the Leave side is ahead and their advantage growing. Both leaders of the Leave campaign had actually conceded defeat earlier in the day! It is getting clearer that Leave is going to win.

MARKETS WRONG
The "best and brightest" in the financial world got it wrong. Markets did not signal a Brexit vote to Leave. This has thrown up a cred problem for the financial markets.

SUPPLY OVERHANG
New Zealand cattle supplies are now tightening as the season moves into winter and farmgate prices are expected to strengthen, according to RaboBank. However, the extent of this increase will depend on how the US market reacts. The US is awash with all types of meat.

EQUITIES FALL
Australian shares are down -3% today, Singapore is down -2.3%, Hong Kong is down -3.8%, Shanghai is -1.2% lower, and Tokyo is down -6%. This follows Wall Street where the S&P500 was actually up +1.3% earlier today. Locally the NZX is down a much more restrained -1.5%

SWAP RATES DIVE
On the basis that markets are unnerved by the UK vote, wholesale swap yields were down about -5 bps across the curve mid afternoon. But in the last 30 minutes that fall has become a collapse and are now down -14 bps for the 10yr term. Update: That drop is now -21 bps. NZ swap rates are here. The 90-day bank bill rate is up +1 bp, now at 2.35%.

NZ DOLLAR LITTLE CHANGED
Our currency wobbled a bit, firstly within a narrow range. But now, as this is written currency markets have indigestion on a Brexit re-rating. In behind this, the GBP much weaker with the NZD now worth more 52c and the last time we saw that level was October 2013. The NZD is now at 70.3 USc, at 95.5 AUc, and 63.9 euro cents. The TWI-5 is now just over 74.1 which is actually not a much of a change despite the British own-goal. Check our real-time charts here.

You can now see an animation of this chart. Click on it, or click here.

Daily exchange rates

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Daily benchmark rate
Source: RBNZ
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End of day UTC
Source: CoinDesk

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48 Comments

What happened today ?? Well today the world changed !

Get ready for 'the vote was symbolic, non-binding - because you don't know anything

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The serfs and kulaks have started to wake up from the "global dream". The sleeping giants rubs his/her eyes to see that their formerly idyllic Kingdom, is now in ruins.........

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Let it be a lesson. If was not compromised by what I do, I'd be looking at promoting a citizens based referendum on immigration and or foreign ownership. Where are the social media savvy young people? Can they not organise themselves to ....

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Everything has changed. This is going to set off a nightmare.

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A nightmare? or a long awaited beginning of a correction that should of happen a decade ago?

It's far too early to tell. Give it a month to settle.....maybe?

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A month to settle would be a great idea. unfortunately the markets have shown today they can't contain themselves for a minute. Outright gambling.

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Central Banks trying to reassure markets.

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Someone is always on the other side of a trade Solarb........

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I live in the UK. Nightmare.

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Brace yourself Brexit is coming along with the usual over reaction and knee jerk reactions across the market. Great buy opportunities are coming

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Fed wont like this

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A guy interviewed on Aljazerra today said that he voted to leave as Turkey may be admitted and he didn't want the British border to end at the Syrian border with Turkey.

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Let's have a vote on NZ immigration now

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Yeap, we better, as Google searches for "moving too....NZ, AUS and Canada are going ballistic!

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FX market going nuts on the brexit.

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500% increase in Google searches for buying Gold.

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Pound down 17 percent against JPY. Biggest trading day of my private life. All nonsense to David C .

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NZ Mortgage rates of 3.9% on their way.

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3.9% !!!!!! stone the crows after all these years I might be able to buy a rental.Yippee Kai Yay other buckets.

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Leave is now ahead by 1.1 million votes at 51.8% to Remain's 48.2%.

362 of 388 authorities have now declared.

Leave it is.

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Nikkei futures trading halted.
Nowhere is safe.
Except the USD.
In times of turmoil the USD is where you turn.
Was a close vote though.

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In times of turmoil you go long Yen.

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Yen or USD. Yes
Established economies.

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Yes Cowpat. Nobody gets it, even interest.co.nz

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FTSE down 8.8% currently

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USD Cash. Never fails when Europe votes on anything. Best to know when to reverse course. NZDUSD flattened out at 0.70

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Is David Cameron ignorant enough to ignore this result? And hold a snap election on it?

Many claiming Scotland will seek independence again now.

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Yippee - give the English a vote and watch Scotland descend into a civil war with Fuerher Sturgeon leading the charge into the valley of death as English industry in Scotland migrates south. It is quite likely that other countries citizens will now demand a Euro referendum - France/Germany/Holland/Italy which could produce the best result in a return of Sovereignty to nation states and an end to the Germanic desire to dominate and the demise of Eurocrats whose micro management and unwanted interference in areas they have no mandate in, in fact being unelected have no mandate of any kind.There will be pain in the short term so the Political & Corporate Elites should recognize that change is coming and resistance may have terminal results for them.

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I wouldn't be rushing into join the EU at this point. Best to wait and see if it disintegrates. Who knows the UK may end up stronger and by delaying they would have the opportunity to pick the best choice.

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Where to for TPPA? Parallel to TPPA is the US/EU equivalent, TIP. With EU in chaos will TIP proceed? And if TIP stalls will TPPA still proceed?

Interesting times.

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No change, Still up to US election results .

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1 There was a lot of public and political resistance to trade agreements in the USA before this result.
2 The presidential election has unleashed powerful anti political/ ruling establishment forces in the public. IE Sanders and Trump's populist appeal
3 The USA is more naturally inclined to be inward looking and inclined to be self reliant and go it alone. (I hesitate to say arrogant)
4 Politicians will be acutely aware of these facts and after this result I very much doubt that the TIP or TPPA will get through

My view is that a TPPA without the USA, Japan and any other myopic bullies may be a much better proposition.

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Agree. Although, ironically, the only practical outcome of these "trade" agreements on the world stage was to make big-Hollywood and big-pharma more powerful internationally. Ratifying TIP/TPPA is absolutely in the US's best interests. But not ours of course.

It will take a while but when the commentariat start joining the dots on Brexit , the failure of the TPPA, Donald Trump etc it will be interesting to see what conclusions they finally draw.

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Could TRUMP take any positives from this vote?

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This is the age of Trump.

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The "Age of Doofus" they will say.

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Did you hear Crooked Hillary's zinger on Trump
Along the lines of "All his books on his successful businesses end at Chapter 11"

Hilarious

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Ohh, those poor ......poor traders. Let's have a minute of snikkering

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So people DONT actually like restrictive trade deals and oppressive immigration... who would have thought... watching are we Mr Key?

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He doesn't care, nor would EVER give us a vote on it.

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Blame this on Merkel....or was this Merkel's plan all along?

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UK likely to lose its triple A credit rating. So....a credible rating instead then?

oooooh, the 'c' word just got used on Bloomberg . CRISIS!

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CRIKEY!!

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Euro markets going crazy now at 8am.

ECB going to make announcement soon. Planned for this scenario a year in advance they claimed. Tui ad?

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I believe they are going to take what is known in the trade as the "JK Position"
"At the end of the day there is no crisis....."

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So Boris now in charge. Who would have thunk it?
Wall to wall coverage via CNBC.
UK has had enough.

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50/50 problems are caused by the elite thinking they are the only ones who know what is right, but get it so wrong. (Off balance, and out of kilter).

Maybe there is some common ideas taking place at long last and people finally waking up.

There is a fine balance between right and wrong and left and right and evenly split down the middle. Boris is not right either, David has been left out in the cold, gone by UK winter.

Split right down the Middle. Brexit......who makes up these stupid words...why the politicians pet monKeys do...it is all a distraction...from reality...no simple English involved.

Plus how many people did not vote...as they all add up to a negative commonly called indifference, as they have know idea what the hell the consequences will be and neither do most of the others., not so well informed. but now apparent in a graphic form.

That may affect all our "futures"

http://finviz.com/futures.ashx

When a single country, with a single currency, now wants to protect its Borders, from stupidly allowing the Common herd to invade and introduce more problems, is it not bizarre that it has such a reaction and has a World Wide effect on Stock Markets, Money Markets and those betting on things staying the same.

People want change, also people want certainty, people want to protect their Borders at any cost, but not at all by importing further issues.

(And also pricing themselves off the Market, by the way, "Buy the Powers that Be.")

(Also not have others bet on it World Wide. But that seems to be what has happened.).

I still say and all ways will, it was the UK Governments acting under an illusion of "she'll be right" and not fixing major problems, but dicking about "flag waving' that may come back to bite them.

(As it should have been apparent here, on the other side of the coin in NZ..but what the hell..a waste of time , effort...and of course, par for the course...money)

The Common Wealth was a UK entity. Even NZ was part of it...as our flag still attests.

(John Key and others ..please note).

Some people like the USA thought a Common Market was a bigger and better scenario, for Europe etc..forget the Commonwealth, institute something bigger a Common Market.

Apparently it was supposed to protect them and their ilk in case of war, to provide a United Front after the 2nd World War. ..Which apparently the USA is still in conflict with.

(United Nations, United Front, United Conflicts...no sweat...no problem...Yeah right)

(The USA is behind the times too, with its Leadership race...what the hell...no choice but more stupidity)

But when Laws and Rules are not consistent, not logical, not even VOTEABLE on, in many cases but dictated by those in Power, but have no Common Sense...

(As do most leaders worldwide, with vested interests, I hasten to add),. then it is not surprising that people might wake up and finally act...in their own common good. in....what may be now known as a Refer-end-em....to end all referendums..

"Wrong Leadership" is the problem, Common Sense dictates me to think, we ain't seen nothing yet...And I ain't betting my shirt on it.

The Friday Funny, just got serious....And I am in Europe today...just not part of it....all, nor taking much of an Interest of late. But like you..I am affected...as we all may learn the hard way...

GFC...buy...buy.

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Trump and Boris. Sounds all good.

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