Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
We have had rate rises for fixed term home loans from SBS Bank, the Co-operative Bank, and Westpac.
DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today, but we are expecting at least one bank to announce higher rates for longer terms, tomorrow.
A NEW RECORD
Net permanent migration levels reached a new record in November. There are still strong incentives to migrate here, and weak incentives to leave. In the year to November, 33% of these migrants arrived on work visas, 30% are returning NZ citizens or Aussies, 19% were on student visas, and 13% were on residence visas. Also see a data oddity in the 'visitor' numbers below.
IMPORTS EXCEED EXPORTS
Our November trade balance came in at a $705 mln deficit, which was much higher than th $500 mln expected. Fast-falling meat exports drove the November numbers and these were down -31%. On the import side, overall imports were down -6.4% on the same month a year ago, although that earlier month did have a large aircraft in it worth $267 mln and this year there was no such import.
HIGHER PRICES HOLD
Speaking of exports, today's dairy auction saw the recent higher prices hold up, even though overall prices were down -0.5%. In 2016, dairy prices have risen more than +50% and today's auction cemented in the new higher levels. ASB Bank now sees a 2016/17 payout of $6.50/kgMS. We should also not forget that higher dairy prices are happening at a time when the world is awash in food and commodity food prices are generally under pressure everywhere (else).
FIRST STAGE OF NORMALITY
Access to Kaikoura via State Highway 1 from Christchurch has been reopened. This is in addition to the Inland Route. The taxpayer has also committed up to $2 bln to reinstate the entire state highway coastal route and rail corridor to Kaikoura.
POPULAR DESTINATION
Visitor numbers in November rose by +11% from last year and were up +0.5% from October (seasonally adjusted). For the year to November, almost 3.5 million tourists visited New Zealand, which is about +361,000 more than in the same period in 2015, a +12% rise. For perspective, across the ditch, the Aussie tourism industry grew by +7.4% in the year to June. Back in New Zealand, the data shows an odd quirk. New Zealand residents on short term trips arrived back home in greater numbers than those that left. In the year to November, that amounted to 49,300 more arrivals than departures. Is this really long term migration back home by people who aren't sure when they fill out the arrivals cards? They return, uncertain they will stay, but then decide to? Those citizens that do declare their intention to return permanently are very much smaller in number, but has been positive for the past three months.
CLIMATE RECKLESSNESS
One reason we may be a popular destination may be found in Beijing. Persistent heavy smog yesterday (Tuesday) caused massive flight delays in and around the Chinese capital, snarling traffic and even pushing up vegetable prices. More than 350 flights had to be cancelled. The Chinese are becoming masters at quick fixes, empty promises and breathtaking inaction.
WHOLESALE RATES UP
NZ swap rates are up by +2 to +6 bps in a trend that does not really affect the rate curve much. The one year swap is up +2 bps, the two year is up +5 bps. the three year is up +6 bps and the five year is up +5 bps. Maybe this is signaling that the three year fixed mortgage term is becoming increasingly popular, affecting the demand for 3 year money. The ten year is up only +3 bps. The 90 day bank bill held at 2.02%. The US Treasury 10 year yield is also up slightly, now at around 2.57%.
NZ DOLLAR HOLDS
The New Zealand dollar is virtually unchanged from this time yesterday. It is now trading at 69.4 USc. On the cross rates, it is at 95.6 AUc, and at 66.7 euro cents. The TWI-5 index is at 76.2. Check our real-time charts here.
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13 Comments
We really do live in a changing world , I see Bloomberg reckons that UBER now has a Market Capitalization of US$ 69, 000, 000, 000 ( that's US$ 69 Billion) a Company with almost no tangible assets, and is now worth more than General Motors.
And our half-witted parliamentarians want to ban Uber from New Zealand which shows how far we New Zealanders are behind in understanding our changing world of disruptive technology .
Clueless.
Who, precisely, wants to ban Uber (apart from the Taxi Federation)? In fact, our government changed the regulations making it easier for Uber to be legal here, updating our rules to make it easier for these types of 'sharing economy' technologies to operate here. Seems the oppoosite of what you think.
There may be other issues, but we have been a lot faster off the mark on this than Aussie. And it seems, we have adopted these innovations faster.
Interesting discussion here;
http://publicaddress.net/speaker/confessions-of-an-uber-driver/
First post in a series of three about Uber by the Uber driver/author on that site. Not advocating a ban but did want the exploitation of drivers to stop.
From the Herald on 24 November :-
Uber came to Parliament today hoping to win over MPs deciding what the future of the taxi industry will look like.
But the company's Australasian executives ran into some resistance from MPs who appeared to be struggling with the very concept of a disruptive ride-sharing business.
Appearing before Parliament's Transport Committee, Uber New Zealand general manager Richard Menzies tried to argue that the company should not have to adopt outdated taxi requirements like logbooks, signage and stringent driver and vehicle checks.
But first he was forced to explain to the committee, over and over again, that Uber was not a "rank and hail" taxi company.
National MP Alastair Scott was the first to bite.
"We're concerned that you could get some gypsy operators who are not licensed by anyone appearing on a taxi rank."
It seems that vested interests got to our Parliamentarians in the Transport Committee ( those interests being the cozy cartel of owners of our over-priced , vintage bus service)
They are more concerned that Uber may be trying to use the Northern Busway in future .
The halfwits are the people who do not check every Bloomberg utterance for the obvious untruths involved. One of Bloomberg's main jobs is to prop up their Wall St mates at each and every turn. In this case it is to help keep the Uber scam going long enough for the IPO, so the usual Wall St suspects can double their money off the fund managers paid big commissions to put their clients money in a loud empty container said to be worth $US69billion. Check any rational valuation of Uber. They were run out of China, they have lost billions so far, and no honest projections based on facts show their business model to be ever able to run a profit. The parliamentarians opposing them are doing so after their meetings with Uber reps and other transport operaters, and being shown how Uber operate.
The opposite of clueless, actually.
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