Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today.
DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
There are none to report here either.
HARMONEY CUTS BORROWER INTEREST RATES
Harmoney is cutting interest rates for people who borrow money through its website. The peer-to-peer lender says from August 3 all new loan applications will be assessed with its "new generation scorecard." Borrower interest rates will drop across Harmoney's risk grades A1-F5 to between 6.99% p.a. and 29.99% p.a. from between 9.99% and 39.99% now. Harmoney says this reflects "the underlying risk and improved ability to price risk."
HIGHER FARM GATE MILK PRICE
Fonterra is now forecasting a $6.75 milk price for farmers in the 2017-18 season, up from $6.50 in the 2016/17 season. But its earnings forecast of 45c to 55c per share is only the same as that for the previous year so the expectation of a change to the 40c/share dividend is also unchanged. You can find the history of all payout levels for all milk companies here.
"HARDEST" BUT NOT HARD
New inflation data out today shows that rising prices for essentials and housing costs hit the poor "the hardest". In the past five years, inflation has risen by +5.8% overall, but for beneficiaries they have risen +7.6% and for superannuitants by +6.8%. At the other end of the scale, the top decile has seen price inflation rise only +4.9%. Over the same time, the minimum wage has risen by +16.7% (from $13.50/hr to the current $15.75/hr), and national superannuation payments have risen +27% (from $536.80/week in 2012 to $681.60/week in 2017). According to StatsNZ, average weekly wages (QES) rose +13.2% (from $882.36/week in Q1-2012 to $999.00/week in Q1-2017. By any measure, those at the bottom of the income scale have made good gains, but just not as much as those at the top.
MORE DEMAND FOR NZD BONDS
A World Bank offshoot International Finance Corporation is seeking at least NZ$100 mln through the first green bond in the NZ Kauri market.
A NEW NZGB BOND MATURITY
Today's $150 mln tender for a NZ Govt 16 year bond brought strong demand for their first 2033 issue. Demand covered it 2.7 times and the weighted average accepted yield was 3.30%.
NEW LEGAL FRAMEWORK FOR WINE REGIONS
Geographic regions can now be registered to differentiate New Zealand brands (mainly wine?) locally and overseas. This will also provide a level of assurance that a product is authentic and holds the specific characteristics associated with its origins.
TROJAN HORSE
Reports are surfacing that a 4000 km undersea cable connecting Australia and the Solomon Islands will not be allowed land because it could be a backdoor way for Chinese intelligence services to tap key Australian infrastructure. It is to be built by Huawei and financed by China.
A DOMINANT DEMOGRAPHIC
Forget everything else you read on interest.co.nz. This is the only global-scale fact you need to know about the future: in the twenty years from 2009, the Chinese middle class will grow by 850 mln people (even if its population growth slows or even reverses). That means their middle class will shift from being 12% of its population to 72%. By middle class, that means household income equivalent to between NZ$20,000 and $200,000 per year, a widely used definition. The world will never be the same, you can plan on it. H/t Bob Carr.
WHOLESALE RATES DROP
Wholesale swap rates are a lot lower today, giving up almost all of yesterday's rises. The two year is down -2 bps while the five and ten year terms are both down -5 bps. The 90 day bank bill rate is up +1 bp at 1.94% level.
NZ DOLLAR JUMPS
The Kiwi dollar is sharply higher on a fast-dropping greenback, at 75.5 USc. On the cross rates we are stable at 93.7 AUc and at 64.2 euro cents. The TWI-5 is at 78. The bitcoin price is almost unchanged from this time yesterday at US$2,550 - which of course means it has declined in tandem with the USD as far as everyone else is concerned.
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8 Comments
Today's $150 mln tender for a NZ Govt 16 year bond brought strong demand for their first 2033 issue. Demand covered it 2.7 times and the weighted average accepted yield was 3.30%.
There were $3.5 billion, NZGS 3.50%, 14/04/33s outstanding prior to today's tender. First issued in October 2015, according to the DMO.
The Japanese government recommended this year’s minimum wage be increased by 25 yen to 848 yen per hour ($7.64), the same amount that it was raised last year.
The minimum wage committee of the labor ministry made the recommendation earlier this week, according to a spokesperson at the ministry. Local governments evaluate the proposal and set pay for their prefecture, with the changes typically taking effect from October.
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s government and the central bank want wages in Japan to rise in hopes that that will fuel consumer spending and spur inflation. While minimum pay has increased for every year for more than a decade, overall wages are still stagnant and only rose 0.5 percent last year. Read more
As I highlighted on another thread today:
After all, nobody really wants inflation apart from economists who think always like it could be 1929. Even at 2%, that’s enough to rob a slow, insufficient trend of enough to make it that much more painful especially for workers. Read more
"Minimum wages have risen 16.7% in 5 years" ???
I don't understand, everyone is complaining there is no wage inflation ?
I keep reading wages trail CPI and low-income earners are getting nowhere
So this is not true ? CPI surely hasn't risen by 16.7% in the last 5 years
I thought immigrants were keeping wages stagnant,
So that's not true either ?
There were a series of massive boosts to the markets in the US after Trump's election. The market anticipated increased strength in the US dollar. The euphoria is wearing off now that people are realising he's having a hard time passing his legislation. It's all sentiment.
It makes more sense from a US perspective.
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