Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.
TODAY'S MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
There were no changes to report today.
TODAY'S DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
ANZ has followed Westpac in cutting savings account rate term deposit offers to savers. Today's reductions by NZ's largest bank range from -15 to -25 bps.
FINALLY, THE PROMISED RISE
There were 2,824 new dwelling consents issued nationally in July 2015, up +24% compared with July 2014, Statistics New Zealand said today. This is the highest number of new dwellings consented in a month since March 2005, boosted by apartments and townhouses, flats, and units. The growth in Auckland was +31%. It was even higher in the Waikato, up +40%.
NOT HAPPY
Business confidence remains on the ropes, hitting a new six-year low in August, according to the ANZ business confidence survey out today. Key survey indicators that more closely correlate to GDP also weakened, with several at their lowest levels since 2009. Agriculture is the main laggard. ANZ counsels that "we need to keep chicken little in the coop', then goes on the point out "Domestically, we have a nasty combination of a king hit to dairy incomes, receding impetus from Christchurch construction, and question marks over the sustainability of the Auckland property market. Those are large voids for other parts of the economy to fill and keep the economic house propped up."
ANOTHER BOUNCE?
Today's dairy derivative price signals indicate this week's auction should bring higher prices.
DEBT APPETITES
Borrowing for housing rose strongly in July, up a net +$1.17 bln since June, and +$11.6 bln year-on-year. This is the fastest growth rate since mid 2008. Collectively, all banks hold mortgages worth $204.6 bln. Having noted that, borrowing for business and agriculture is growing faster than for housing. And for the first time in over a year, consumer debt is growing slower again than for housing debt.
FATTER BANK ACCOUNTS
But all this debt growth is churning through bank accounts. The money supply is up +9.3%. And household bank accounts have grown +11.9% to $143.5 bln (or $146 bln if you include our foreign currency accounts) up $15.2 bln in a year. That is the fastest growth rate since May 2009. (Observant readers will have noticed that household bank accounts are growing faster than household borrowing in both percentage and dollar terms.)
WHOLESALE RATES UNMOVED
Swap rates are pretty much unchanged today, unmoved by either the building consent data or the fall in business confidence. However the 90 day bank bill rate is still tracking higher, up +2 bps to 2.92%. It has held at about 2.9% now for more than two weeks.
NZ DOLLAR SLIPS
The NZ dollar rose today on the building consent data, and then gave all of that up and more on the decline in business confidence. It is now at 64.2 USc, a tick below 90 AUc, and the Trade Weighted Index (TWI-5) is now down at 68.7. This is the lowest the TWI-5 has been since December 2001. Check our real-time charts here.
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4 Comments
Having noted that, borrowing for business and agriculture is growing faster than for housing. And for the first time in over a year, consumer debt is growing slower again than for housing debt.
Is this a case of the kitchen ATM financing working capital requirements in both the home and the business/farm? Obviously the banks are keen to take their share from both savers and debtors alike with little capital risk sitting in the middle.
"Oil prices will stay low for years to come, derivatives markets say, keeping a lid on inflation and helping boost global growth.
Oil has more than halved in value over the last year, thanks to huge oversupply, and many oil companies, particularly in the United States, say they may soon have to rein in production, tightening supply, unless the market recovers.
That has led many analysts to predict that oil - on average around 5 percent of companies' costs - will see price rises later this year or in 2016, pushing up inflation.
But oil derivatives tell another story.
Contracts for delivery of crude oil in the future on the big commodities markets such as the New York Mercantile Exchange and the InterContinental Exchange show the price of oil in five years' time has collapsed in recent months.
U.S. crude now costs around $42 a barrel for delivery next month, and only about $20 more for delivery in 2020.
Prices of oil for future delivery are usually much more stable than volatile near-term prices, holding their value even when the spot market crashes.
But the recent oil-price rout looks different.
Prices for all futures months for years to come, also known as the futures price "curve", have come down sharply."
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/08/19/us-markets-oil-futures-analys…
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