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The number of first home buyers getting into a home of their own is back up to pre-Covid levels

Property / analysis
The number of first home buyers getting into a home of their own is back up to pre-Covid levels
Young couple with child

First home buyers remained the stalwarts of the housing market in June, but they are paying less for a home than they were last year and are also taking on slightly less debt to have a home of their own.

The latest figures from the Reserve Bank show 2445 mortgages were approved for first home buyers in June, at an average value of $566,000.

That's well up (+30%) on the 1885 mortgages approved for first home buyers in June last year. It puts first home buyer activity back at the levels it was pre-Covid in 2019, in spite of the substantial increase in mortgage interest rates that has occurred since then.

However overall real estate sales remains lower than they were pre-Covid, with sales recorded by the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ) in June this year down 8.1% compared to June 2019.

That means first home buyers' likely share of the housing market has increased from 36% in June 2019 to 43% in June 2023.

However the rise in interest rates is having an effect, with first home borrowers borrowing less and paying less to get into a home of their own than they were last year.

According to the Reserve Bank figures, the average size of mortgages approved to first home buyers peaked at $592,000 in April last year, and had declined by $26,000 to (-4.4%) to $566,000  in June this year.

Interest.co.nz estimates that the average price paid by first home buyers declined $36,000 over the same period, from $717,500 in April last year to $681,500 in in June this year (-5.0%).

By comparison, the REINZ's lower quartile selling price has declined by $50,000 (-7.8%) over the same period, falling from $640,000 in April last year to $590,000 in June this year.

With house prices still so high, getting the deposit together remains a significant obstacle for many first home buyers to overcome, with almost a third (31%) of them buying their homes with less than a 20% deposit by taking out expensive low equity mortgages, giving them less wriggle room with their banks if they were to strike financial difficulties.

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102 Comments

Is it "first home buyers", or "first time home buyers" in NZ?

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3

With quite a few "first time property buyers". We know the pitch, "Can't afford to buy a home in Auckland (*your home town)? Then buy in Gisborne (*or anywhere cheaper) and rent out that property until prices rise, and you can cash in the capital gains to fund the deposit on your proper home". The damage that is doing to the real FHBers in Gisborne etc is huge. And only WHEN it all goes wrong for those using that strategy will local workers get back to being able to afford a local home.

We all know it's coming - it's even evidenced in the article above - "With house prices still so high..."

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29

Its your only home. You rent it. Its a rental, you sell within 10 years the Brightline rule catch's you. Capital gain is income, you pay tax. 

No one seems to be aware the Govt changed the rules, many people are breaking the law and not paying tax. I find it funny the many herald and stuff articles where people openly admit they do this, the IRD is handed this on a plate.

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7

Yet another reason why Australia has much more favourable property taxes.  You can buy a house and if you live in it for six months it qualifies as your home, and then you can rent it out for six years before becoming liable for capital gains tax.  Of course, after six years you just move back into it again and then sell it.  Tax free.

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2

Pretty much the same here. You live in it for a year you can rent it out for one day short of a yr and still classed as owner occupier. And brightline is only 5yrs

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2

I've read IRD is closely monitoring this.

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3

Doesn't the intention of why it was purchased trump the brightline test anyway? 

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2

Bluekiwi

" . . . many people are breaking the law and not paying tax. . . . . "

What is your source for this or is it just wild speculation?

For a starters; rent it once, then a red flag is raised as to why it isn't included in one's following year's tax return. Also IRD has the ability to data match LINZ information regarding property sales and their own data regarding income from rental properties. I have heard from a reliable source that they are doing this; IRD are not mugs, and it is very easy for them to check by doing nothing more than marrying data with a push of a data. 

If you have first hand knowledge of someone avoiding the brightline tax, then they are a mug. There are plenty who can tell you that IRD have no mercy when it comes to penalty taxes and being on your back for the rest of your life.  

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3

True, but rental income isn't always declared in the first place. 

Therefore, I would like an unavoidable land tax so we may leave all the plugging of capital gains loopholes at the door.

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3

Murray

Yes, some try not declaring rental income but that - like drug dealing - is highly illegal and risky with severe consequences.

I have previously posted of a person I am familiar with. He did not declare rental income. His long term tenant (with some family connection) unknowingly to him applied for a benefit and accommodation supplement. Caught out as IRD and WINZ share information; ended up with a prosecution, bankrupted by heavy penalty taxes, interest and fines, and IRD continually now on his back. Now a renter himself rather than a home owner and landlord.

You can also be pretty confident tht IRD and the Bond Centre are data sharing. Failure to lodge a bond not only has direct consequences (from memory up to about $10K) and there is high risk of a tenancy turning sour with disputes arising with red flags raised if no bond has been lodged.  

I also understand IRD are monitoring AirBnB and Trade Me.

Stories of what may have happened in the past no longer hold true and more often are now urban myths. IRD didn’t invest in a significant computer upgrade for no reason. Today those who try to be smart are by far, far more likely to be caught out . . . . and IRD have no mercy being responsible for initiating a vast majority of bankruptcies. Ask that guy Henderson who thought he was smart as IRD did him big time.

So yeah, go for it but you need to be both dumb and stupid. 

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11

IRD data matches, own a couple of accounting firms, the transaction details sit on MyIr after the transaction and before the respective tax return is filed.

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1

This is the Cantillion Effect in action.  It's a widespread issue with its root in the broken fiat monetary system.

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2

I wonder how desirable those Queenstown air bnb houses will be when the tourist industry collapses due to a lack of workers accomodation? 
 

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2

They are getting priced out of Cromwell now. Big, big issues. Sympathy levels for tourism operators there - zilch (they have collectively done jack all themselves to address the issue):

https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/44002

 

 

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2

They drive from as far as Alex, they describe it as the 60 min commute catchment.

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1

Unfortunately, the conceited effort by the vested interests brigade looks to have tricked some financially unaware FHB's to race back into the market. This is such exploitative behaviour of vulnerable people. In any other industry, you'd be being dragged before the commerce commission/the courts, but the RE industry is an untouchable beast that has the entire country over the barrel. Everyone is too scared to let the necessary pain happen, as nobody is prepared to deal with consequences anymore. 

There is no financial rationale for why the market should turn now. It still has plenty left to fall before it makes sense, hence why most investors have ditched buying anything for so long. We desperately need some better regulation across the industry and we also desperately need to stop the vested interest brigade being able to position their advice as "expert independent advice". 

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46

There is no financial rationale for why the market should turn now.

Our country is propped up on the housing market. It is so deeply and generationally entrenched in our sense of identity that the level of vested interest in it is beyond what anyone is willing to admit. Willful ignorance and denial is rife currently as those with vested interests shout, manipulate data, cherry pick stats and swear black and blue that things are looking up.

Strangely however, in a pocket of defiance, with the new wharf/port being built in Picton to accommodate the larger boats coming in 2025, and workers being brought in from overseas to do this, rentals are getting snapped up all over Blenheim, Picton and anywhere in between for exorbitant prices for a 1-2year contracts currently as workers are brought in from overseas. I guess the yields there are looking good.

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9

Not completely caused by the spruikers (bankers, brokers, the Comb, realtors et al). A double income couple that is earning around $200k combined should qualify for a mortgage of up to $700k to $800k.

However, if that couple wants a reasonable quality of life, they are pretty much restricted to a total borrowing amount of about $500k to $600k. Which makes sense and appears to be reflected in the stats. 

This bump in FHB's is likely from above average income couples and singles jumping in now that some homes have dropped by over $200k in Akl and Wellington. 

The true affordability shift will occur when the "investors", landlords and speculators etc can't afford to carry their surplus properties anymore, in Ireland this took 5 to 10 years to play out. 

 

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14

Didn't Ireland unwind some of their tax changes once they crossed 300 applicants per rental?

Mate in Christchurch just had more than 100 apply for a new build so we are a third of the way there. 

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1

Wow I know several property owners in Christchurch saying the amount of people viewing properties that they have open times on is almost as good as pre covid. And good quality people too

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1

You can get 800k mortgage on 175k family income, things have relaxed under CCCFA. Good listing are selling quick in Christchurch. As a CA things on the property side have picked up in the last two months. It is all emotional decision making, financial rational is usually not considered.. 

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3

Posted this elsewhere but worth asking here

I would love interest to do a follow up on the property “investors” who leveraged up during covid and shouted it from the rooftops about their hard work and sacrifice.

How is this lady getting on for example with her 5 extra houses? Is she still on track for 25?

https://i.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/buying/124035697/property-invest…

Edit: her 5 houses in 5 years Instagram page has vanished. As has her property investment website.

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9

I firmly believe that the trouble started when these real estate websites (Homes, OneRoof etc) popped up. Never before did we have such easy access to valuation and trend data, as previously you had to pay for it. Obviously someone very smart figured out that if you give away the data for free (ie advertising revenue), then people will keep coming back regularly to see how their house value is tracking…

In engineering this is called a positive feedback loop. The problem is, it’s always inherently unstable. People see the market trending upwards on these websites, so they’re willing to pay even higher prices, making the problem worse. Especially when there’s a delay in the trend data.

Fortunately (unfortunately?) the system also works in reverse. Gonna be an interesting few years ahead once that trend line starts dropping more rapidly…

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10

Those sites overvalue. They'll never show the real falls as their revenue is 100% from the RE industry. They're basically the front of the industry and I think not even half of the population realise that

I know it's anecdotal, but I know of a place that's been put on the market for $500k in Oct. Fast forward to April "Owner needs to sell urgently. All offers welcome" on list price of $430k. Sold for $415k in July (9 months on the market). Homes still has it at $570k

But, hey, if it fools a couple people it's all that matters. An overvalued market's price is set by the greatest fools, not by the 99% who see it for what it is. Until it dries up completely, which isn't the case yet

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9

Very interesting idea… don’t bite the hand that feeds. Of course everyone in the RE industry makes more profit when prices are high. And the websites that show the highest house values probably get the most hits (because of the dopamine-inducing “My house is worth $xxxx…” effect).

So then is it Gov’s responsibility to crack down on these market manipulators?

Eg by establishing a code of conduct and requiring that valuations be directly linked to real sales data. Given what’s at stake for the NZ economy, we can’t afford not to reign in these cowboys.

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1

They actually go both ways and lag, neighbours place just sold and it estimated value is understated to actual sale price,  therefore all the neighbours, as those details are not reflected yet…

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0

It’s only partly the case. As a CA usually it’s an emotional decision above all else. Even investment property. This is one area very difficult to advise people on, if they are receptive to advice at all. Demand never went away and was cut off initially by the CCCFA legislation, that criteria has changed and matured. People that could not met the guidelines last year are now sneaking in. Had a flood of people buying property in the SI where I am based.

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1

Good for them - they will be glad they did so, as prices rise 5% this year and 10% next.

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4

Which means their next home further up the mythical ladder will cost them even more?

Any FHBer should applaud what's coming - massive price falls, as the long term consequences are far better for them buying a better, bigger home, for less. (And yes, It's possible to refinance a loss of equity into a larger home. All it takes is the banks to realise that's what they will have to do)

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27

Arguably while price rises = next home costing more, leveraging the equity gains does help if you started out small.
Say you only had a $40k deposit, which could only buy a $200k property @ 80% LVR.  Yet you could afford to service a much bigger mortgage than that, say $600k.  

  • $200k property, $40k deposit, $160k mortgage. 
    • Price doubles to $400k.  Equity = $240k,
  • $300k property doubles to $600k.  $240k = 40% deposit.  $360k Loan
  • $400k property doubles to $800k.  $240k = 30% deposit.  $560k Loan

If prices remained static, you'd still have a $40k deposit + whatever you've paid off the mortgage.  

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0

....yes the BS promoted way to enrich NZ.  How to create a ponzi and ruin your country.

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24

I'm not promoting the idea as a good one for society, just illustrating that house prices rising does not necessarily mean the reach for the next place is that much harder.  If your borrowing was capped by your initial deposit, then that increase in equity can give you the boost to move up into that next level.  

 

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0

When was the last time FHBer who had $40k deposit bought a $200k home? The name of The Game is to use every cent of leverage available at any given price point at any given time. That's why this article is here; FHBers are using every cent they can, and it's how RE agents make the most commission, after all.

So that scenario is improbable.

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10

I had a $50k deposit to buy a $200k house in 2017.  So 6 years ago?  

I'm just illustrating how a rising market can make it easier to "climb the ladder" through leverage.  Of course it makes zero sense at the peak/when prices are falling.  But if the starting deposit/house price/mortgage is fairly low, then as prices rise the added equity allows for a) a bigger deposit in dollar terms and b) allows the person to borrow to up to their maximum.  

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0

On the other side, if house prices were not increasing faster than inflation or their rental yield, then they would be less likely to fall. In that situation banks would have confidence in lending at lower LVR's to high cashflow individuals. And people would not spend their whole lives paying off mortgages.

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4

You just answered your own question and why the majority of NZers don't have a clue. They are always buying up. They buy a 600k house do it up it goes up in value They sell then get a 900k house then a 1.2 mil. So they are getting further and further into debt living for the capital gain. Some of us buy down but buy two add value but keep buy and living in the no collar suburbs and that is why it don't worry me what happens to the market.

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0

Is that based on any facts?  The  price largely dictated by the interest rates and they are rising.  So people can't afford to service as large a mortgage as they once could to get into a home. 

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7

The dogma that "house price always go up!" is just terrible.

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4

At 590k settling price, assuming 20% down implies a loan of 472k. 472k on 30 years at 6.29% (best rate of the major banks) paid fortnightly is ~$1347, or $675 per week. For your mortgage to be 50% of your costs (a very high amount), you need ~$1347*2 = $2694. How many couples actually earn >115k? Last year, during the helicopter money handout in August, 80% of the adult population received a payout and earn less than 70k. What sort of marginal buyer is there to be a greater fool at these prices?

 

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1

Your figure of 675 per week probably isn’t far off what most of those people would be paying rent each week so either way they have to find that money, at least owning they are moving with the market (even if it’s down for a short while!)

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0

When they buy, they also have to find a few grand a year for rates, the same for insurance, and then double that for actual or deferred maintenance keeping the house in shape. Easily another couple of hundred dollars a week. 

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12

..not to mention capital improvements.

Most of the fhb stock I have looked at recently are shipwrecks.  The owners taking the approach that they need do nothing as the cap gains and immigration ponzi mad country will create them a nest egg form doing nothing.

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9

The house my buddy is renting is $650 per week. 

To buy the house with 20% down + insurance + rates + maintenance they would be paying $1,100 per week. (at the current interest rates).

Assuming they are sitting on a $100k+ deposit, they will be earning around $100 per week after tax in interest. 

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7

As the young people say, “Oof

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2

ooft, boomer ponzi go brrr, ceebz buying into it 

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5

Nuts - And to think i thought the people who bought at the peak were nuts.

Who is encouraging FHB to buy  now? At a time when house prices are still falling, rates are still going up and it seems they are paying a premium because they havent saved a decent deposit.

To all FHB -> owning a house is not a good goal in itself. Owning a house if it gives you more freedom than if you didnt own said house - is a good thing. Freedom is not working 3 jobs and spending most of your income paying for said house - its buying wisely at a good time so you save money vs renting or make money on the purchase. Buying now is unlikely to fulfil those requirements - better to wait for the fools to realise the error of their ways and have to sell in significant numbers that prices fall and simultaneously the reserve bank starts to drop rates to stoke a faltering economy. in the meantime find a safe job to be in a position to buy then.

US interest rates are rising, ukraine war is bedding in, uk is in a mess, NZ has more issues than it can cope with in every sense....   so the economy is unlikely to fire meaningfully for a while in fact rates will rise and unemplyment will rise. 

Amongst all this is great opportunity for those that are patient and invest time and money wisely. not dgm - but real opportunism where you make money buy being smart - not jst buying a hosue and witing for the price to rise!

 

 

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24

You tried to get a rental anywhere other than Wellington recently?

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3

Peace of mind is also a big thing for FHB knowing they own it (plus bank) and someone isn't going to kick them out. They can have a pet etc etc. Also as we have seen the market turns very quickly and or hard to get finance. And you could be wrong in that houses might not plummet they could go up. So what would you say to FHB then

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0

That would all be very nice, but I'm priced out.  Have had to accept it.

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0

I’m not sure this is good advice for FHBs OldSchool… for one, you have no idea what the market is going to do.

When I bought my first home in 2006, it was a huge financial commitment at the time. But I wanted the house, and I could afford the house (just…) so I bought it. Albeit with a 5% deposit.

The point being, if a FHB has the opportunity to buy now, who are we to say don’t do it? Things might change and they might not get another chance. Just saying.

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2

Are those houses worth the money these buyers are paying? 

The only reason they are doing is because there is no other choice.

We are such a poor country in terms of infrastructure but we do have big mouth and talk ourselves into looking rich. Nothing left in the pocket but spending like a king.

God save NZ 

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17

Somehow paying colossal amounts of interest is seen by Spruikers as money better spent than rent. Knowing they've missed the mark on their interest rate forecasting they've little to go on when forecasting any sustainable recovery in house prices too. 

There's a lot more debt stress to come and tough choices for many will accompany this. FHB's should wait on the sidelines till early 2024 and start making those lowball offers. The required downturn to bring interest rates down has not happened yet and when it comes, unemployment will be taking off and house prices will have further to fall.  

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24

"start making those lowball offers"

 

Is $1 a bargain or not for this property?

After 20 years of ownership, this property just got sold for $1.00 (that is a price drop of 99.99%). That is before the impact of leverage.

https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/1-reserve-apartment-sells-for-just-1-439…

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1

For those killing time on a Friday, go on the TradeMe and type “Lakewood Plaza”. This is the Du Val build in Manuka. This sums up the market at the moment. 
 

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7

Holy crap.  14 apartments and 1 large commercial space all up for sale in one building?  Wonder what's wrong with it?  A number of "urgent" sales in there too...

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3

How many of these are still owned by the developer?

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1

That terrible situation has been going on for a few years, look at the historic media articles about it.

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3

Hardly any of them got carpark - what planet was the the certifier/council on the time?  

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3

apartment market is shot to s*** and will be going forward  ... yet vendors still listing central 2 bedders for 1 million + ... just nuts, under no scenario does it make sense for anyone to pay that

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8

Yes it is two bedroom two story shitboxes. Hence why I build 4 brm dble garage separate section and have queues of people wanting to rent them. Cannot get enough family homes for people. The shitboxes are advertised for proffessional people well NZ only has so many of them. 

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1

These apartments were selling for $12k-$14k per sqm. Now they're down to $10k per sqm or less when they do sell. And $10k per sqm is damn close to cost.

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2

Wow. I had been told that every level you go up add an extra 1000 a sqm so single level was 3500 a sqm up a level an extra 1000 3 etc etc. But what you are saying is crazy because the finish and the chattels ain't that great in what I have seen. Yet so called investors are buying them up silly. Cause then when one has to sell under urgency that sets the price for the rest then it's a race to the bottom. Hence why I do what I do. 

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Du Val manufacture milking machinery, hence the tongue in cheek humour in the naming of the company.

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1

I have been getting heaps of ads for Williams Group, Du Val, etc apartments, low prices, 5% deposit required.

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5

Trouble in the private jet leasing industry? 

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0

Just saw (via YouTube ad) someone offering 25k towards people willing to buy into their housing development...

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"many home owners have seen the writing on the wall since rates started increasing and have pre-emptively sold before becoming a distressed seller" . A taste of things to come here as well. (I know! We aren't Australia, and quite right. It will be far worse in a smaller market like ours)

Ray White Byron Bay said most of the house price declines have been driven by the sub-$2 million market, which is most sensitive to inflation and rising mortgage rates. “Anything under $1.5 million or $2 million, that segment has come back the furthest. It’s dropped up to 40 per cent in some areas. ...The holiday home you can afford at a 1 per cent interest rate, people can no longer afford at 4 per cent...It’s more to do with the people who bought an investment that they didn’t need through COVID. They bought at the peak of the market and borrowed against their home. That’s where the mortgage stress comes in.

And that's at 4%! Just imagine what's going to happen at 6% and more.

https://www.smh.com.au/property/news/the-once-booming-regional-nsw-town…

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10

You can either buy or risk renting forever and having this as the sound track to your life https://www.tiktok.com/@ericdalessandro/video/7220920298802089262?is_fr…

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3

Hmm. So what is being said that is causing FHB's to buy now? 

Even to the layperson it should be obvious that:

a) In all likelihood their property is going to be worth less in 12 months.
b) The interest rate they are locking into now will probably be higher than what they could get in 12 months.
c) Renters are less impacted by Cost of Living increases than homeowners.
d) Their KiwiSaver balances to be used for the deposit may not have fully recovered.
e) Properties at the cheaper end of the market are still overvalued.

No sane person should be buying residential property at the moment.

The only thing I can think of is that their sucky landlords have increased the rent by a large amount.

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11

There will be buyers all the way down. Current FHBs will likely be well above average earners. As prices continue to drop, you'll see more and more FHBs in the market, as everyone else has either lost too much equity to re-leverage, or are locked in to mortgages they can't escape. I would bet $$ there are less vultures waiting than some people make out - and all the noisy 'be quick prices will rise' people have something to sell you.

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3

Yes. I could understand it if these were predominantly wealthy FHB's but even so, they would be in a far better situation if they waited, and the fact they are not is saying, like you rightly pointed out, that they are not your average NZ family.

Maybe new migrations with a suitcase of cash? Or those that took advantage of the low unemployment to negotiate a much better paying job? Or those that sold up at the height for tax free capital gains, rented for 6 months, and are now getting back into the market?

So what is the breakdown of those numbers? How many of those "FHB's" are actually dropping $2 million+ on their "first" home?

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I've never understood why you'd want to treat property as an investment.  As an investment in your own home sure. Somewhere for your family to live, absolutely.  The problem I have is that when an 'investor' cashes in their chips...someone is turfed out. It's morally corrupt. There are other things to invest in but most kiwis are too thick. 

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11

If Kiwi's are thick, then blame their education, as that is what it boils down to. They have not been taught any different. Instead they have been continually bombarded with such sound bites as "Property is King!" "Be a Successful Landlord!" "Tax Free Capital Gains!" "Landlord Millionaires!".

I do not know who started the housing ponzi, but successive Governments have all failed to address the moral problems with residential property as an investment, because successive Governments have been almost entirely comprised of landlords. Do not expect this to change. The young folk now, who will be our eventual leaders, are being taught exactly the same thing.

No wonder this countries productivity is so low. We just do not invest in businesses or enterprises that would actually employ people and contribute to our economy. Instead, when those businesses and enterprises need to grow, they have to sell out to overseas investors, which exacerbates the situation by then having NZ generated revenue head straight offshore.

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Government/s just open the people floodgates. It’s the only lever they have. Pathetic really. 

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3

The trouble is, when everyone opens the flood gates at the same time (we all need a replacement workforce as the older one retires in ever-increasing number towards 2030) New Zealand will be way down the list of places to go, even if we do try to offer better pay rates than we currently do. How many of us know a teacher or nurse that's heading off overseas right now? Probably most of us.

And we think Inflation is beaten? Think again.

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5

Similar to how an electricity generation company will spill dam water so as to not generate too much, and therefore keep the price high, I'm sure Government policies on housing and migration are adjusted to keep property prices increasing. The pandemic not withstanding, looking at historical data would likely show such manipulation.

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1

 

Instead they have been continually bombarded with such sound bites as "Property is King!" "Be a Successful Landlord!" "Tax Free Capital Gains!" "Landlord Millionaires!".

 

There will ALWAYS be someone telling people that now is the best time to buy.

Why?

Because these people need to earn income to put food on the table to feed their families, pay for the roof over their heads (either rent or mortgage).  More property transaction volume and transaction values financially benefit the following groups of people:

1) real estate agents
2) mortgage brokers
3) property mentors
4) property developers

There are others.

Positive spin leads to increased confidence to persuade people to buy.

Always remember the vested financial self serving interests involved.  

 

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I'm rather pleased to have a landlord, thick or not. Bought to supplement retirement income 

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And Debt-free, that might work. But the current crop of investors is anything but Debt-free. And if they have to sell (make that, when) that's when it's going to turn really ugly.

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Will there be a suitable crop of buyers to soak up the excess supply? Possibly FHB's who didn't succumb to the pandemic FOMO and have quietly been saving away the last 3 years waiting for the downturn? But it seems likely that property investors will make up a smaller percentage of the crowd come auction day.

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1

Apparently there is 14 percent less property on the market than this time last yr. There is less new builds getting constructed. There is 78 000 new immigrants into NZ in the last yr. Finance is easier to get than last year. So ad all that together and why FHB are looking. Just wait and,see what will happen IF there is a change of govt. Then the investors will be back with a vengence

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1

Not really surprised at the data, I would be buying a house now as well if I was on the sort of money that clearly a load of FHB are on for banks to lend them the money in the first place.

The market has bottomed, a couple more months of no more falls will confirm it.

 

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1

You are a fulltime dreamer,  No Bottom in sight!!!!!

Lets reconnect in Dec 2023 (after more OCR hikes) and see how your bottom really feels!!!

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We have gone conditional on a house,

$80k under RV 2022

$50k under QV

37% below Homes peak

LVR 0.855 and DTI 3.27

I expect we'll lose some equity over the next year as well, however, we're not an average household. So if I were closer to average or median then I'd say to wait it out and grab a deal next year.

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Will 'global boiling' help the iced up nz housing market. Juzz is hoping that rich climate refugees arrive and lots of them

Tbh its the hottest week on record, so NZ housing may be resurrected by the immigration surge. 

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I don't think immigration will solve any of our issues, particularly the health system.

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Strange comment 

Would you send home the immigrant medical staff so we can have better hosps 

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I'd like to see those stats on healthcare workers as a proportion of total immigrants. Also whether they intend to stay in those roles, for nurses the pay and working conditions still don't stack up IMHO. Nurses and healthcare assistants are unfortunately unionized, which can be good, however, performance-based pay may achieve better results. Allowing students who have "cultural inequities" to achieve competencies based on race is also not doing any favors to their own people when the standard of care is diminished

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Yes I would.

Train our own citizens and make them pay back the state for resources consumed. You ain't leaving till you pay back the 6 figure cost of your training.

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Congrats. Some figures to think about and why I think you did a good thing. 14 percent less houses on the market than a yr ago. Less new builds getting constructed as finance is harder to get plus cost to build in that existing homes are cheaper per sqm meter. Finance is easier to get with higher TD and money flooding into banks they only make money if it goes out. Immigration 78 000 this yr they need somewhere to sleep. So if and that's a big if you lose some equity I doubt you will regret it in 20 yrs. Again congrats on your purchase

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A 5.9 LVR?... %... guessing it's not 5.9%

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ahh my mistake LVR 0.855

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I wonder how many of these FHB transactions are for new builds? I imagine quite a few. Also probably quite a few pushed to the absolute limit or needing more help from the bank of mum and dad, given mortgage rates now compared to when they signed sales and purchase agreements 12-18 months ago.

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I think the lure of a low deposit 5-10% played a part, the problem for some will be that come settlement time the valuation has expired. A current valuation may put them in a very low equity situation and finance may be a problem.

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Yep and desperate calls for assistance from ma and pa

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People I know my age must have thrown 6 figure deposits at their kids, I remember being given $12K for the deposit, now you need like $120K.

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It would be nice to have a bank of Mum and Dad, although I'm glad I'm not one of those who got massive gifts and then tell other people they just don't know how to save money. I got nothing so the satisfaction of getting there is a lot better.

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The deposit is just the first hurdle but people need to realise that a 10 year head start carries right through the rest of your life. You still have to not waste money along the way and make smart decisions but it allows you to retire early. In latter life I will probably have no end of cash but its really of no use in your late 60's onwards, when you really wanted it was age 30. Clearing that first hurdle was life changing, didn't really appreciate it at the time.

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In the short term a landlord can outbid a FHB.  Mid term that FHB is a tenant.  Nothing stopping that FHB mid - long term buying their own place.

Quite a wasted exercise if a) we're building houses to fulfil ownership demand from FHB who b) are renting and would have otherwise bought if Landlords didn't outbid them on entry level properties.  Let's hope said Landlords can continue to find tenants as FHB move on.  

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Most landlords will not outbid a FHB if the figures don't stack up when a FHB is buying on emotion. Most investors and there is a difference between an investor to a speculator has got to make the price of house work to rent return. As after your so called first rental investment you then need to prove income. And since the mum and dad so called investor on average only buys one house and apparently are the biggest non buyers at the moment the real investor (2 plus rental homes) is not competing with FHB 

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"Most landlords will not outbid a FHB if the figures don't stack up when a FHB is buying on emotion"

 

For a house on a large section of land, many property investors buy and add dwellings on the land in areas where intensification is allowed. Seen this happen in many parts of Auckland.  Also developers who can build a row of townhouses have outbid owner occupier buyers before the recent rise in construction costs and financing costs. As long as house prices were rising, and equity recycling financing techniques were allowed, these non owner occupier buyers are likely to outbid owner occupier buyers who may be emotional, yet they are constrained by their borrowing power based on their income. 

 

When house prices are falling, for non owner occupier buyers there is less equity to recycle, and reduced borrowing power which means less buying competition for owner occupier buyers. 

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