covid-19
Roger J Kerr says the RBNZ, it appears, are now belatedly recognising the difficulty in reducing the sticky/wage-push domestic inflation that has been running close to 4.00% for many years
12th Feb 24, 8:35am
4
Roger J Kerr says the RBNZ, it appears, are now belatedly recognising the difficulty in reducing the sticky/wage-push domestic inflation that has been running close to 4.00% for many years
Roger J Kerr says the view and outlook that the US dollar will weaken against all currencies this year is now under some scrutiny and pressure
5th Feb 24, 8:02am
4
Roger J Kerr says the view and outlook that the US dollar will weaken against all currencies this year is now under some scrutiny and pressure
Labour market figures out in the coming week tipped to show unemployment rising from the last recorded 3.9% rate to 4.2% or higher
4th Feb 24, 6:01am
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Labour market figures out in the coming week tipped to show unemployment rising from the last recorded 3.9% rate to 4.2% or higher
Roger J Kerr says the still-high level of inflation that has declined a bit isn't yet cause for celebration and the RBNZ needs to explore more options to get it lower. But he sees US inflation march lower even if their economic data remains mixed
29th Jan 24, 8:30am
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Roger J Kerr says the still-high level of inflation that has declined a bit isn't yet cause for celebration and the RBNZ needs to explore more options to get it lower. But he sees US inflation march lower even if their economic data remains mixed
Statistics New Zealand figures show household net worth increased by $5.3 billion in the September 2023 quarter, while savings rates remained steady
25th Jan 24, 11:35am
27
Statistics New Zealand figures show household net worth increased by $5.3 billion in the September 2023 quarter, while savings rates remained steady
Roger J Kerr says weaker than expected inflation and jobs data in Australia has forced away any lingering expectations of further Reserve Bank of Australia (“RBA”) interest rate hikes
22nd Jan 24, 7:55am
2
Roger J Kerr says weaker than expected inflation and jobs data in Australia has forced away any lingering expectations of further Reserve Bank of Australia (“RBA”) interest rate hikes
The BNZ/SEEK Employment Report shows that the number of applications per job advertisement has now hit unprecedented levels
16th Jan 24, 11:03am
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The BNZ/SEEK Employment Report shows that the number of applications per job advertisement has now hit unprecedented levels
Roger J Kerr says there is a strong argument that the New Zealand interest rate market is pricing in far too many cuts, far too early, from the current 5.50% OCR rate
15th Jan 24, 7:46am
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Roger J Kerr says there is a strong argument that the New Zealand interest rate market is pricing in far too many cuts, far too early, from the current 5.50% OCR rate
Even though markets seem sure the US Fed Funds rate will need to fall as US inflation does - and that will make the USD weaker - Roger J Kerr warns managers to be aware of the risks to that weaker US dollar expectation
8th Jan 24, 8:51am
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Even though markets seem sure the US Fed Funds rate will need to fall as US inflation does - and that will make the USD weaker - Roger J Kerr warns managers to be aware of the risks to that weaker US dollar expectation
Roger J Kerr says it has just taken an extraordinary length of time for the Fed and the markets to conclude that interest rates did not need to go any higher and would need to come down in 2024 to avoid a recession
18th Dec 23, 8:23am
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Roger J Kerr says it has just taken an extraordinary length of time for the Fed and the markets to conclude that interest rates did not need to go any higher and would need to come down in 2024 to avoid a recession
Labour-led government's ‘shovel ready’ infrastructure investments were too focused on announcements and were not fully scoped
14th Dec 23, 4:42pm
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Labour-led government's ‘shovel ready’ infrastructure investments were too focused on announcements and were not fully scoped
Roger J Kerr says the evidence from all the US economic data over the last month has to be that the risks have subsided, therefore the Fed have done enough with tight monetary policy to achieve their 2.00% inflation target
11th Dec 23, 8:15am
2
Roger J Kerr says the evidence from all the US economic data over the last month has to be that the risks have subsided, therefore the Fed have done enough with tight monetary policy to achieve their 2.00% inflation target
ASB economists estimate that average household living costs will have increased by about $115 a week in 2023 - and with a further $70 hike to come next year, but income rises will probably beat that
7th Dec 23, 10:30am
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ASB economists estimate that average household living costs will have increased by about $115 a week in 2023 - and with a further $70 hike to come next year, but income rises will probably beat that
Roger J Kerr struggles to make sense of the Reserve Bank's latest 'stringent' message
4th Dec 23, 8:02am
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Roger J Kerr struggles to make sense of the Reserve Bank's latest 'stringent' message
[updated]
Reserve Bank leaves Official Cash Rate unchanged at 5.5% but warns if inflation proves stronger than expected it may have to hike the OCR again
29th Nov 23, 2:20pm
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Reserve Bank leaves Official Cash Rate unchanged at 5.5% but warns if inflation proves stronger than expected it may have to hike the OCR again
Roger J Kerr says the fundamental premise of lower US inflation, equals lower US interest rates, equals a lower US dollar still holds as compelling today as it was in early 2023
27th Nov 23, 8:52am
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Roger J Kerr says the fundamental premise of lower US inflation, equals lower US interest rates, equals a lower US dollar still holds as compelling today as it was in early 2023
Roger J Kerr says the continuous switching by global investors between “risk-on” and “risk-off” mode over the course of the last year is reflected in the up-down-up pattern of the US equities Dow Jones Index
13th Nov 23, 8:58am
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Roger J Kerr says the continuous switching by global investors between “risk-on” and “risk-off” mode over the course of the last year is reflected in the up-down-up pattern of the US equities Dow Jones Index
Economists say the Reserve Bank will be wary of survey results that show shorter term inflation expectations have fallen but longer term expectations for both inflation and interest rates have risen
9th Nov 23, 9:07am
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Economists say the Reserve Bank will be wary of survey results that show shorter term inflation expectations have fallen but longer term expectations for both inflation and interest rates have risen
Influential RBNZ survey shows a small but significant drop in the expected level of inflation in two years time, and a sharp drop in expectations of one-year-out inflation; house prices expected to rise
8th Nov 23, 3:51pm
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Influential RBNZ survey shows a small but significant drop in the expected level of inflation in two years time, and a sharp drop in expectations of one-year-out inflation; house prices expected to rise
Roger J Kerr says US dollar bulls are hastily reversing their long-USD positions as the scenario for next year of US interest rates decreasing well ahead in time of all others starts to become a higher probability
6th Nov 23, 9:09am
Roger J Kerr says US dollar bulls are hastily reversing their long-USD positions as the scenario for next year of US interest rates decreasing well ahead in time of all others starts to become a higher probability
Roger J Kerr says an RBA interest rate hike next week would certainly propel the AUD/USD exchange rate higher, and the NZD/USD rate will follow
30th Oct 23, 8:14am
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Roger J Kerr says an RBA interest rate hike next week would certainly propel the AUD/USD exchange rate higher, and the NZD/USD rate will follow
The Reserve Bank expects labour market figures out in the coming week to show a further rise in unemployment. As long as the central bank gets its wish then the Official Cash Rate will remain 'on hold' after the next review in November
29th Oct 23, 6:00am
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The Reserve Bank expects labour market figures out in the coming week to show a further rise in unemployment. As long as the central bank gets its wish then the Official Cash Rate will remain 'on hold' after the next review in November
Roger J Kerr sees the US playing a very high-stakes 'game' that cannot last, raising the risks of an American recession. The USD is over-valued and until it comes down, American interest rates will stay high
23rd Oct 23, 7:00am
11
Roger J Kerr sees the US playing a very high-stakes 'game' that cannot last, raising the risks of an American recession. The USD is over-valued and until it comes down, American interest rates will stay high
The Office of the Auditor General reports deficiencies in understanding the effectiveness of state spending
18th Oct 23, 7:20am
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The Office of the Auditor General reports deficiencies in understanding the effectiveness of state spending
Statistics New Zealand figures show household net worth fell by a further $33.5 billion in the June quarter, with over half of this due to falls in property values - but our rate of savings increased
16th Oct 23, 11:58am
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Statistics New Zealand figures show household net worth fell by a further $33.5 billion in the June quarter, with over half of this due to falls in property values - but our rate of savings increased