Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand with news of some bumpy data in many large economies.
In the US, the widely-watched University of Michigan sentiment survey has delivered a shock result, reporting "a stunning loss of confidence in the first half of August". With their labour market now improving rapidly and the stock market at a record high, that is a clear sign that the latest surge in virus cases is weighing on sentiment, despite roughly 60% of all American adults now being fully vaccinated. A notable part of the reasons for the change of heart is the realisation that renewed inflation is going to hurt.
Itr is a result that knocked the bond and currency markets - but not the equity markets whigh will close the week at a record high.
China has reported that electricity consumption hit a new record high of 775.8 billion kWh in July, rising +13% from a year earlier and growing +16% from the same month in 2019.
Much of that electricity is being generated by coal, and coal prices are rising fast in China, up +20% in the past two weeks alone. China seems to have abandoned its carbon promises just a few months after it made them.
In China, port workers at a major part of the world's third-largest container port (and maybe the world's largest cargo port) just south of Shanghai have tested positive for the delta variant of COVID and some services have been shut down. This closure cuts a quarter of the overall port capacity, and will likely disrupt supply chains significantly - and add to problems shifting goods ahead of the key Christmas shopping season. More here.
China reported its July FDI overnight and it isn't very impressive. But it is a gain, but basically back to July 2019 levels. It was +US$104 mln in the month, up sharply from the pandemic-affected 2020 month, but barely higher than for the same month in 2019. This data is consistent with a slowdown in China and a hesitation by investors after their aggressive regulatory moves against their tech industry.
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The price of nickel has risen to record levels, a key component in stainless steel. Similarly, tin prices are at record highs. But not all metals are rising in price.
Some key food prices are though, especially wheat - and coffee.
We reported on the rises and rise of shipping container freight costs yesterday, and the leasing costs of ships is rising too. The Baltic Dry Index surged about +2% to 3,566 today, its highest level in more than a decade, helped by improving demand, the congestion in Chinese ports, and weather concerns in the Pacific.
The Australian Capital Territory is now in lockdown because of a school outbreak and 3 new cases. There were another 391 new community cases in NSW yesterday with another 250 not assigned to known clusters, so they are still not getting on top of their outbreak. It has spread into regional NSW now. Victoria is reporting another 15 new cases yesterday and their lockdown is extended. Queensland is reporting 8 new cases. Overall in Australia, more than 24% of eligible Aussies are fully vaccinated, plus 22% have now had one shot so far.
Wall Street is up another marginal +0.1% in late Friday afternoon trade and at a new record high. It is up +0.6% in a week. Overnight, European markets were up another +0.3%, led by London's +0.4% recovery. Yesterday, Tokyo fell by -0.1%, Hong Kong by -0.5% and Shanghai by -0.2%. But Tokyo gained a full +1.0% over the week, Hong Kong gained +1.6% and Shanghai rose +2.2% for the week. The ASX200 ended up +0.5% yesterday capping a +1.2% weekly gain. The NZX50 Capital Index rose +0.7% yesterday allowing it to close flat for the week.
The UST 10yr yield starts today at 1.28% and down -8 bps since yesterday. The US 2-10 rate curve is flatter at +109 bps. Their 1-5 curve is also flatter at +72 bps, and their 3m-10 year curve is also much flatter at +126 bps. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark rate starts today at 1.21% and little-changed. The China Govt ten year bond is at 2.89% and unchanged. The New Zealand Govt ten year is now at 1.74% and up +3 bps overnight.
The price of gold has risen +US$25 from this time yesterday to US$1778/oz. For the past week it is up +US14/oz
Oil prices are -US$1 softer from this time yesterday, so in the US they are just under US$69/bbl, while the international Brent price is just over US$70/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar opens today at just on 70.4 USc and back up +¼c since this time yesterday. Against the Australian dollar we are marginally firmer at 95.5 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 59.7 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 starts today at 73.4, marginally firmer in a week and still in the narrow range of between 72 and 74 we have been in for ten months now.
The bitcoin price has weakened today and is now at US$46,578 and is up +3.1% from this time yesterday. For the week it is up +9.3% although less in NZD terms. Volatility in the past 24 hours has been moderate at just under +/- 3.2% and for the week it has been +/- 4.7%.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
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21 Comments
Really going back to mid-March, this has been a stretch of nearly five months when CPI’s have exploded upward, back to 5% and more for the first time since Summer ‘08, yet T-bill rates have done otherwise as dealers have become more and more wary at the same time Janet Yellen’s Treasury has been refunding bill (and other OTR) offerings yet again. Those bill yields have often sunk below key thresholds (like the RRP rate), and still are, once more directly undercutting the renewed message of inflationary certainty being dispensed by more and more CEO’s around the economy. Link
Insufficient nickel supply, and chrome too, plagued Germany in both WW 1 & 2. Odd thing in the older days they used to look down on you if your cutlery was just nickel plated. Might be those utensils are now better regarded, but for the sake of snobbery, probably not.
The price of gold has risen +US$25 from this time yesterday to US$1778/oz.
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When Delta does make it to our shores, and the shot has been proven to be as effective as saline solution, and we look back at what we should have done; we could have perused 61 studies showing the efficacy of Ivermectin. We could have increased ICU capacity. And we could have avoided great pain.
https://ivmmeta.com/
Let me guess you think Trump will be president again this month as well?
DA has not approved ivermectin for use in treating or preventing COVID-19 in humans. Ivermectin tablets are approved at very specific doses for some parasitic worms, and there are topical (on the skin) formulations for head lice and skin conditions like rosacea. Ivermectin is not an anti-viral (a drug for treating viruses).
Taking large doses of this drug is dangerous and can cause serious harm.
If you have a prescription for ivermectin for an FDA-approved use, get it from a legitimate source and take it exactly as prescribed.
Never use medications intended for animals on yourself. Ivermectin preparations for animals are very different from those approved for humans.
Most drugs that kill a foreign invader are also likely to be somewhat toxic — so it’s tricky to find mechanisms that destroy them and spare us. It’s usually easier to kill parasites and bacteria than viruses, Lowe said, because the larger pathogens have more working parts that might be more vulnerable to chemical disruption than human cells.
Vaccines, by contrast, tend to prevent viral disease with fewer side effects because they work not by toxicity but by stimulating the immune system. And the animal immune system has had hundreds of thousands of years to get good at killing invaders.
https://www.cochranelibrary.com/cdsr/doi/10.1002/14651858.CD015017.pub2…
July 2021 review...
"Based on the current very low‐ to low‐certainty evidence, we are uncertain about the efficacy and safety of ivermectin used to treat or prevent COVID‐19. The completed studies are small and few are considered high quality. Several studies are underway that may produce clearer answers in review updates. Overall, the reliable evidence available does not support the use ivermectin for treatment or prevention of COVID‐19 outside of well‐designed randomized trials."
Fact check.. Correct!
Tess Lawrie et al. conducted a comprehensive meta-analysis involving the certainty of evidence using an approach known as GRADE, which led to the focus on twenty-four ivermectin-centered randomized controlled trials involving 3,406 participants. The authors concluded based on this extensive review that ivermectin actually reduced the risk of death compared with no ivermectin (average risk ratio 0.38, 95% CI 0.19-0.73; n = 2438; I2 = 49%; moderate-certainty evidence). This result, posits Dr. Lawrie and team, confirmed via trial sequential analysis employing what was the same DerSimonian-Laird method behind the unadjusted analysis.
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