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90 seconds at 9 am: Japan disappoints; gold rises again on credit fears in China; dodgy iron ore demand; Italy has new PM; NZ$1 = US$0.836 TWI = 78.4

90 seconds at 9 am: Japan disappoints; gold rises again on credit fears in China; dodgy iron ore demand; Italy has new PM; NZ$1 = US$0.836 TWI = 78.4

Here's my summary of the key news overnight in 90 seconds at 9 am, including news it is a public holiday in US markets today.

The cold wet weather than has beset much of the northern hemisphere this year is also affecting Japan and its economy. Major manufacturers are reporting shutdowns and supply difficulties.

But even before these latest events, Japan's economy grew at a feeble annualised rate of 1% in the October-December quarter, underscoring risks to their recovery. The expected spending ahead of their April tax increase did not happen in Q4.

Italy has a new government after the previous one lasted just short of a year. The new prime minister is promising to pick up the pace on 'economic reforms'.

In a Lincoln University study, consumers in China and India say they are more motivated by environmental standards and animal welfare issues than those in the UK. The study suggests New Zealand food manufacturers emphasise their certification for these attributes and that will help market access.

The price of gold is definitely trending higher. It closed in London this morning at US$1,329/oz and slightly higher in New York (which was trading the yellow metal). Part of the reason for the rise is growing scepticism in China that their credit bubble will be managed properly. Chinese 'fear' demand is high.

Commodities and credit issues are at the fore in understanding the sharp rise in iron ore stocks building at China's ports. Their customers face weak demand, but those stocks are backed by large loans. There may be trouble for Aussie iron ore producers soon.

The NZ dollar is pretty much unchanged overnight and starts today at 83.6 USc, 92.5 AUc and the TWI is at 78.4.

If you want to catch up with all the changes on Monday, we have an update here.

The easiest place to stay up with today's event risk is by following our Economic Calendar here »

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2 Comments

...and gold has slipped into backwardation - meaning there's a metal shortage for immediate delivery and a risk of default in the banking system.

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http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/world/9734152/Oil-firms-pull-back-cut-s…

 

''Global oil firms, hit by one of the worst years for discovery in two decades, are about to cut exploration spending, pulling back from frontier areas and jeopardising their future reserves, industry insiders say.''

Chuckle.

"It is becoming increasingly difficult to find new oil and gas, and in particular new oil," says Tim Dodson, the exploration chief of Statoil, the world's top conventional explorer last year."'

Guffaw.

"The discoveries tend to be somewhat smaller, more complex, more remote, so it is very difficult to see a reversal of that trend," Dodson told Reuters."The industry at large will probably struggle going forward with reserve replacement."

LOL.

But dont worry chaps, shale oil will save us..........

If anyone had bothered to watch that Kopits presentation I put up yesterday you will see that these are exactly the effects he alluded to.

 

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