Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today. (Updated with Resimac rate changes.)
TODAY'S MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Resimac reduced their fixed rates across the board with a strong flattening bias. They reduced their 1 year fixed rate by -4 bps to 5.88%, their 2 year rate by -9 bps to 5.86, their 3 year rate by -14 bps and their five year rate by -34 bps to 6.06%. All these rates are their standard <80% LVR rates. Higher rates apply for other grades.
TODAY'S DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
There were no changes announced today.
CHINA EXPORTS TANK
Data out from China today was a bit of a stunner. In February, China's trade surplus was US$60 bln. It was expected to be lower in March, with most analysts expecting a US$40 bln surplus. But the data released a few minutes ago showed their March trade surplus at just US$3 bln. Yes, just US$3 bln ! The Aussie dollar fell against the US dollar. The New Zealand dollar fell less. As the data is just breaking, analysis is slim, but an unexpectedly large fall in exports was the main reason. We will have more on this later.
FONTERRA NEEDS MONEY
Fonterra says it is looking to borrow NZ$250 bln in new bonds. They are likely to pay lower interest rate than many bank deposits.
CARDS RULE
Core electronic card spending was up in March a very healthy +6.1% year-on-year although that is a lower rate than for January and February. Sales of durable goods were up 5.4% year-on-year. Average transaction values were low however, probably reflecting an even wider use of cards for small transactions. If you use cash these days, you may be in a minority.
BIG DOLLARS FOR BIG PROPERTY
Major commercial property sales surged last year to more than NZ$5 bln with overseas buyers accounting for 57% of transactions priced above $5 million, according to JLL research.
YOUR TAXES AT WORK
Statistics NZ today launched a new online resource can help small businesses identify their customers, markets and competition. We are big users of the Statistics NZ resources and making it easier for any business to use is to be welcomed.
WHOLESALE RATES RISE AGAIN
Wholesale swap rates fell by -2 bps across the whole curve. However, the 90 day bank bill rate rose by +1 bps to 3.64%.
NZ DOLLAR HOLDING
The NZ dollar was basically unchanged today until the China trade news broke. As of late this afternoon it is lower at 74.9 USc, higher at 98.5 AUc, and the TWI is at 80.5. Check our real-time charts here.
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6 Comments
China trade surplus slumps 62%
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/news/2015/4/13/china/china-trade-su…
TSHTF
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/news/2015/4/13/china/50-billion-yua…
Peak oil demand has Saudi's rattled.
"Substitution of lower-cost fuels is also taking a toll. Chinese diesel demand, after rising an average of 8 percent a year for a decade, actually fell in 2013 and 2014. The International Energy Agency attributes this partly to the country’s rapidly expanding fleet of natural gas vehicles. Chinese demand for oil this year is expected to rise to 10.6 million barrels a day, an increase of 2.6 percent, or half the average annual growth of the past decade and one-sixth the rate in 2004. China’s oil use is still climbing twice as fast as global consumption, but the IEA has in the past year shaved 500,000 barrels from its 2019 China demand forecast. More efficient autos and factories reduced the overall oil intensity of China’s economy—oil burned per unit of GDP—by 18 percent from 2008 to 2014."
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-12/saudi-arabia-s-plan-t…
Yet only a few years ago many thought that oil could go to $200, $300 even $500 a barrel, yet we chickened out at $150. So the max we can pay is more like $120 ergo any oil in the ground costing more than that will never be extracted in the free market.
Oh and all isnt well in china, if iron use is down then the deisel to transport it also being down makes sense.
Who needs diesel? This rig has got a 1,000+ km range.
Only a few (mostly on this blog!) were touting $200 oil...
https://truckcentercompanies.com/news/288/cng-powered-cascadia
And then there is shipping. No wonder the Saudis are worried.
"The ME-GI engine will have the option of using either heavy fuel oil (HFO) or gas as fuel. The MAN Diesel and Turbo engine package, including turbochargers, will have no methane slip and will ensure low emissions, making the ships more environment-friendly.
The clean-burning LNG fuel of the new Marlin-class vessels provide exceptional environmental benefits, such as considerable reductions in particulate matter (PM) by 99%, sulphur oxide (SOx) emissions by 98%, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by 71% and nitrous oxide (NOx) emissions by 91%."
Not true actually, many websites if not the majority seemed to think that $200 and over was possible. The problem was (and is) many on the right dont comprehend ppls inability to pay whatever is asked, I think over the last few years that has been proven.
In terms of shipping, a) the US might have enough for 50 maybe 100 years at present consumption, double or treble that and the decades of reserves fall away. b) Ships btw use HFO, or the dregs after the good stuff is extracted so its almost a waste product and easily available throughout the world, just how many will be gas in the future is an interesting Q one to watch.
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