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China abolishes presidential term limits; Collins a winner in new caucus; non-farm payrolls strong; Chinese bank lending constrained; Kiwi tipped to become Trump's top economic adviser; UST 10yr at 2.90%; oil up, gold stable; NZ$1 = 72.9 USc; TWI-5 = 74.0

China abolishes presidential term limits; Collins a winner in new caucus; non-farm payrolls strong; Chinese bank lending constrained; Kiwi tipped to become Trump's top economic adviser; UST 10yr at 2.90%; oil up, gold stable; NZ$1 = 72.9 USc; TWI-5 = 74.0

Here is our wrap of weekend events that affect New Zealand.

Chinese lawmakers have agreed to amend the country’s constitution to abolish presidential term limits. This will enable President Xi Jinping to rule for life. All but a handful of the National People’s Congress’s nearly 3,000 delegates endorsed getting rid of the two term limit put in place in 1982.

Other amendments to the constitution include a clause affirming the Communist Party’s leading role in governing China, and provisions for a new anticorruption agency that more heavy handily polices public servants.

Back home, the new National Party Leader, Simon Bridges, has given Judith Collins a boost in his caucus reshuffle. Number four on the list; Collins has been given Housing and Urban Development, as well as Planning portfolios. She is behind Deputy Leader Paula Bennet and Finance Spokesperson Amy Adams.

Gerry Brownlee has been demoted to 11th and has lost his Foreign Affairs and Trade portfolio to Todd McClay, who’s at five. Jami-Lee Ross has shot up the ranks, given Infrastructure and Transport, as has Paul Goldsmith with Economic Regional Development and Revenue. Without Brownlee, Bill English and Steven Joyce front and centre, the National Party looks very different to what it did in the John Key era.

The US economy added the largest number of jobs in more than a year-and- a-half in February, but a slowdown in wage growth points to only a gradual increase in inflation this year. Nonfarm payrolls jumped by 313,000 jobs last month, boosted by a rise in construction jobs. The US labour market is benefiting from strong domestic demand, improved global growth, and President Donald Tump’s tax cuts.

New Zealand businessman Chris Liddell is tipped to become Trump's top economic adviser after Gary Cohn's exit from the White House. According to the New York Times, Trump is "strongly considering" Liddell, who works as an assistant to Trump. Cohn announced his resignation last week after an unsuccessful effort to block Trump from imposing tariffs on steel and aluminium imports. Liddell is a former Carter Holt Harvey CEO, Microsoft CFO and General Motors CFO.

Over to China again, its consumer price index rose an unexpectedly high 2.9% (yoy) in February, largely off the back of higher food prices. China’s producer price index cooled to a 15-month low, increasing by 3.9%.

Chinese banking regulators are imposing tougher lending restrictions. They limited new loan issuance to just NZ$182 billion in February – a huge drop from the NZ$630 billion limit in January.

In New York, the UST 10 yr yield has jumped since the end of last week to 2.90%.

The US benchmark oil price has risen to US$62/bbl. The Brent benchmark is just above US$65/bbl.

Gold price is stable at US$1,322/oz.

The NZD has strengthened slightly to 72.9 USc. It's down to 92.9 AUc and up to 59.2 euro cents. That leaves the TWI-5 stronger at 74.0.

ANZ economists say that Trump looking to do side deals on newly imposed tariffs could support the AUD, lifting the kiwi at the same time. However, the local focus will be Q4 GDP growth later in the week, which should support the NZD too.

The price of bitcoin has remained pretty stable over the weekend. It's at US$9,600.

This chart is animated here. For previous users, the animation process has been updated and works better now.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».

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22 Comments

We shouldn't be aligning our country with an authoritarian dictatorship or letting them colonise us.

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I guess it is a bit too late to open that can of worms. Our biggest ally has been receiving threats from the Chinese state-owned media to shut down their probe into Chinese meddling in internal government affairs (such an irony); from the looks of it, the Aussies might give in to the pressure. That sure is the hidden cost of basing your entire economy on exporting red dirt to an oppressive, mercantile economy.

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they are reading the tea leaves ... democracy only works when theres plenty to go round (in times of surplus ie last century) - as growth stalls with resource limits anything but democracy will be the norm.

Our western mindset has been brainwashed into thinking democracy is all about having the right attitude ... which is all lovely until you're down to the last piece of bread on the table - which is why the US war machine must guarantee bread

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Funnily enough, democracy started to become more high priority a value when ownership and volunteerism for military needs was required by the ruling classes at the time. Maybe it was adopted more strongly and widely than even expected...but at least it resulted in more people having more franchise and even - post wars - getting greater economic freedom.

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" it resulted in more people having more franchise and even - post wars - getting greater economic freedom."

Economic freedom comes from resource riches. The democracy is an expensive luxury add-on which works under conditions of plenty...
It has been flipped on its head now to suggest is was the the democracy that created the resource riches in the first place...

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There was resource richness for segments of society prior to democracy too. The industrial revolution happened a while before people actually got more powerful democracy. With democracy came the power for more of the people at the bottom to actually get less exploitation and more access to capital. I should have phrased it better than to suggest democracy alone caused their economic freedom, however their empowerment sure helped them get access to better working conditions, social support etc. and capital on which to become middle classes.

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Democracy is a system based around the fact that the consensus of a group of people is more likely to be correct than any individual however educated. It gets interesting when the 'average' man disagrees with the sophisticated intellectual elite - for example Brexit. Of course all democracies are representative democracies - a genuine one vote per one adult would be interesting.

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NZ needs to align with China or US to ensure our protection.

Neutrality isn't an option unless we want to arm ourselves to the hilt like Switzerland.

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Adding to the Chinese theme,it appears that the Chinese General Consular enclave down Great South Rd is doubling its footprint with boundary walls being erected next door.I stand to be corrected,as it may be another fitness centre.

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Xi is a leader at one of the most critical time of China with this ambitious "Two Centenary Goals" --

The Two Centenary Goals are: to finish building a moderately prosperous society in all respects by the time the Communist Party of China celebrates its centenary in 2021; and to turn China into a modern socialist country that is prosperous, strong, democratic, culturally advanced, and harmonious by the time the People’s Republic of China celebrates its centenary in 2049.

There is also an interim goal around 2035 -- to turn China into a modern socialist country.

Xi is very likely to step down before 2035 after achieve the interim goal.

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have you approached Xi to be his councillor (英国)

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Modern socialism looks suspiciously like authoritarian state capitalism.

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If people like you didn’t exist, we would have to invent them

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Likely to step down? Yeah, that's not happening. It's not China anymore, it's Xi-topia.

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More than a bit concerning that what is clearly going to become a dictatorship, has so many fingers in so many pies in this country. And be aware that just about every venture into this country by Chinese big business will be partially, if not wholly, owned by their government.
The other concern will be if the Chinese govt starts to come after off shore property that they may deem to be obtained via ill gotten gains. Will this mean the Chinese govt will try to confiscate these properties and how will that go with our new found ability to keep foreign hands off our houses?

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The Bushes & Clintons ran the US for was it 24 years - tried for 32 ?

What's the difference - I know which side has achieved the most in terms of increased living standards for the largest number of individuals. An economic miracle we should all applaud.

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Good to see Q&A on YT in 2018. Some intelligent conversation at times.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z1dcemJATd0&feature=youtu.be

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As the nzd strengthens, or if it does, would that ease pressure on big banks to look for more deposits? And conversely, a weak nzd would have them make it more attractive to savers?.... Please inform me....

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China at Risk of Banking Crisis in BIS's Early Warning Signal

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-11/china-at-risk-of-ban…

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History has proven that credit bubbles always burst.
China by far is the biggest credit bubble in the world today.
We lay out the proof herein.
There are many indicators signaling that the bursting of the China credit bubble is
imminent, which we also enumerate.
The bursting of the China credit bubble poses tremendous risk of global
contagion because it coincides with record valuations for equities, real estate, and risky credit around the world.

https://www.crescat.net/wp-content/uploads/Crescat-Capital-Q2-2017-Quar…

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So what does this mean if you are an up & coming Party cadre and now the top job (and presumably all the next level top jobs) is off-limits for the next 20 years? I can't imagine everyone in China is happy about this, and this kind of "strong-man" leadership style is prone to a decaying of vitality & new ideas.

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