Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.
TODAY'S MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today.
TODAY'S DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
None here either.
ANOTHER CHANGE?
Yesterday's surprise announcement by the RBNZ of tighter investor LVR requirements will be followed tomorrow by a signaled update. What will it be about? This is what the RBNZ says to expect: "The Bank will issue a brief update on its economic assessment on Thursday 21 July at 9:00am, given the longer-than-usual gap between Monetary Policy Statements (MPS) as the Bank moves to its new release timetable this month. This will not include an Official Cash Rate (OCR) review decision. The next OCR review will occur with the 11 August MPS." Whatever is released, we will have a full analysis.
FLAT, WITH ISSUES
Dairy prices were flat in USD at the global auction overnight, they were +1.3% higher in NZD. The key Wholemilk Powder price rose by +1.9% in USD, more in local currency. However some analysts say problems because the expected upturn has not yet materialised. ANZ for example set out a scenario where a payout downgrade by Fonterra is possible.
PAYING FOR QUALITY
Today's LGFA bond tender brought better demand and an improved coverage ratio, especially for longer dated debt. Today's average weighted yield was just shy of 3%. 28 of 48 bids were successful. This debt is rated AA+, the same as NZGBs, but the yield is so much better.
OFF THE BOIL
Winter demand is finally arriving in the home loan market. The latest home loan approvals data shows volumes sinking to their lowest levels of the year (for other than a holiday week), the second consecutive week of decline. But they are still above the equivalent week of a year ago by a good margin. The average mortgage value approved sank to its lowest level since late February and is now almost -10% below its April peak.
PICKING UP STRONGLY
In Australia, data out today shows advertising on the internet for workers soared by +10.3% in June, with the strongest demand coming from the factory sector of the eight occupational groups monitored.
HOLDING HERE
Apart from Tokyo (which is off -0.7%) most equity markets are showing small gains today, including the NZX. This is in contrast to the small falls on Wall Street overnight.
SWAP RATES RISE
Wholesale rates rose by +2 bps across the whole curve with the market concluding yesterday's drop was slightly overdone. NZ swap rates are here. The 90-day bank bill rate has also risen by +2 bps and is now at 2.35%.
NZ DOLLAR REGAINS SOME
The currency market also concluded the drops over the prior two days was overdone and rose by about ½c today. The NZD is now at 70.5 USc, at just over 94 AUc, and 64.1 euro cents. The TWI-5 is now back up to 74.6. Check our real-time charts here.
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5 Comments
'Last month was declared the hottest June ever recorded in modern history, with global temperatures in the past 14 months breaking all records since 1880, scientists reported.
On Tuesday the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said that June was the 14th consecutive month with record high temperatures. April 2015 was the last month when the Earth did not encounter any record high temperatures.'
https://www.rt.com/news/352196-global-heat-temperature-record/
Record low interest rates have played their part in this problem. But, because New Zealanders aren't good savers banks have had to borrow from offshore to fund this rapid expansion in housing lending. And this funding supply is not endless unless banks want to pay higher prices for it. I doubt banks can keep lending at the current huge volumes anyway. Read more
Oops, foreigners not impressed with extending beyond 21% of bank assets they already fund?
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