By David Hargreaves
Economists are still picking a recovery in global dairy prices - but now see this happening later than was earlier expected.
Commenting on the overnight GlobalDairyTrade Auction results, which saw prices hit a six-year low, ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley and rural economist Nathan Penny Dairy said prices were "low and staying there a while longer".
Dairy giant Fonterra last week dropped its forecast milk price for farmers in the current season to $4.50 per kilogramme of milk solids from a previous pick of $4.70. Including dividends, the total return to farmers is forecast at between $4.70 and $4.80, compared with $8.50 just a year ago. This suggests a drop in earnings this year of about $6 billion for Fonterra farmers alone and about $7 billion for the dairy farming sector.
ANZ agri economist Con Williams said local dairy farm budgets were showing a hole "of anywhere from $0.5-$1.5/kg MS", which suggested that seasonal finance requirements "could stack-up toward $1.85 billion in 2015/16 (nearly 5% of total outstanding debt) unless more cost efficiencies can be found".
AgriHQ dairy analyst Susan Kilsby said an increase in the number of companies buying product on GDT indicated that demand was beginning to improve, but this increase in demand was not yet being reflected in the prices.
“It’s a buyers market for SMP [skim milk powder] at present with strong competition between NZ and European suppliers who are operating in the Asian and Middle East markets. A better than expected end to the 2014-15 milk production season means NZ dairy companies still have some current season product to sell, while European milk production is heading towards its seasonal peak.”
ASB's Tuffley and Penny said they expected dairy prices to remain low over the next two to three months, before "finally beginning their lift".
They have now dropped their forecast milk price for next season to $5.70 from $6.20 - though this does only bring ASB more into line with what some other bank economists are now picking, with ANZ, for example, already forecasting $5.50-$5.75 and Westpac $5.70.
Tuffley and Penny cited a key fact in the continued weak dairy prices being the "second wind" that production in NZ had got.
"At one stage, Fonterra forecast this season’s production to fall 3.3% compared to last. Whereas now, Fonterra expects this season’s production to lift 1.5% from last season’s level. Meanwhile, demand is proving slower to recover."
"...We still expect production growth to slow to the point where demand can catch up, but this point will come later than previously expected."
They said that "a number of farmers" were losing money at current farmgate prices, so dairy production was likely to slow as the new season began.
Meanwhile, Chinese officials had swung into action to boost the flagging Chinese economy.
"The Chinese economy usually responds well to stimulus, but the current growth weakness may require additional stimulus moves and thus demand may take longer to gain traction than first thought.
"...NZ’s WMP March exports to China, for example, are less than half what they were in March 2014. Admittedly, March 2014 was during the exceptionally strong period of demand, but even compared to March 2013 WMP exports to China are over a third lower."
Tuffley and Penny said they expected by the end of the 2015/16 season that whole milk powder prices will have recovered to around USD3,400/tonne.
"But with recovery expected to now be that much later in the 2015/16, the season’s overall outlook is now lower."
ANZ's Williams said sharp declines in SMP prices pointed to "immense competitive pressure" from both the US and Europe (the two largest global suppliers) with prices now down 30% over the last four auctions.
"Prior to the last auction New Zealand sourced SMP was trading at a premium of US$100-200/t over Europe and the US, which is not unusual as we enter the off-season.
"However, overnight’s auction result pulled New Zealand sourced product below both competitors. Europe remains the focal point for New Zealand with reportedly aggressive selling into key regions, such as North Africa, Middle East and Asia (ex. China).
"This pressure is unlikely to abate in the near-term with recent reports suggesting Russia will extend their import ban until at least the end of the year and want to be self- sufficient in milk supply within the next 7-10 years. Europe also needs to move the peak of this year’s seasonal supply (March-May).
"The only real bright spot is that international prices are now only approximately US$100-150/t from intervention prices in Europe, suggesting one backstop is fast approaching."
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45 Comments
Cheap feed in the States, new technology like semen selection, better genetics, drugs like BST and low interest rates.
This dairy price correction has legs. The low interest rates in the States have led to a huge increase in investment and that includes agriculture.
Russia has low interest loans to encourage investment and self dependence in dairy, this was a highly successful strategy for their pork and poultry industries.
We are the ones at most risk as we have such a small local market just %5 of our production the US at %90 like the EU, doesn't really care that much about the world market.
Modern day bank economists sit some where between company goodwill ambassadors and modern day banking apologists.
http://www.agrimoney.com/news/farmland-partners-secures-firepower-for-2…
http://www.agrimoney.com/news/cnh-slashes-machinery-output-at-ag-downtu…
I used LIC's "fresh sexed semen" last round of dairy mating. Previously I'd used frozen sexed (stored for a year due to a administration hick up by LIC).
With Frozen sexed, Kamars, trail with short gestation, 9 weeks AI : 83% in calf, tested at 31st May. None of the last week held. 4 CIDRs.
With Fresh sexed, Kamars, trail with short gestation, 8 weeks AI : 65% in calf, test 31st March. 6 CIDRs.
I had also tried previously with "Teaser Bulls" as I'd heard that statistically leads to a 10% increase but I found it actually dropped the in-calf rate by 10% ! (ie minus 10%, not the plus 10% I'd hoped for). For all the extra hassle, raising the bulls, getting them operated on, having them in shed. What we put this down to was although the teaser-bulls aren't fertile, the natural mating releases a contaminant into the vital areas, reducing the success rate of the artificial breeding. The presence of contaminant was noticed by the technician but we didn't really think about what it was at the time.
My use of teaser Bulls was for four seasons 88-92, long time ago. I found the results great, got the calving pattern down to 75% in in three weeks, no induction and no Cidr. Not used them since but more through lack of opportunity than want, still got one chinball harness somewhere.
Probably the best I can say is I learnt a lot from watching the bulls work. The best ones were fantastic at putting a single paint mark on the cows back then out checking out the next prospect. The odd one was a total failure and would ride one cow for hours on end.
To answer your question probably not. No matter what else you use, your own observations are always the number one and I'm assuming you already knew that.
The graphs were completed using 2012/13 economic survey cost structures and are based on a total milk income of $5.27 for owners and $2.50 for 50:50 sharemilkers. Created in mid-April, the cashflows do not reflect the recent change to the 2014/15 Fonterra pay-out. As such, implications on the 2015/16 cashflow may be more significant due to lower retrospective payments received.
It shows that farmers nationwide will be facing some short-term but significant cashflow management challenges.
http://www.dairynz.co.nz/news/latest-news/what-does-next-season-look-li…
short term is now out to 2017, i.e 18 to 24 months until money starts to add (cash flow) to the bank balance
http://www.farmingshow.co.nz/on-demand/audio/cameron-bagrie-the-chief-e…
some Canterbury grazing is costing more than last year...
Someone is going to have to cut production substantially. Who's going to go first? Only so long you can store product.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/agribusiness/10574421/Irrigatio…
So it begins, I doubt many farmers will be spending much when they are staring into the abyss of a $250k overdraft. Direct suppliers suffer first, and the shockwaves spread.
The way I see it Gross Domestic Production has taken a $6-7 Billion dollar hit, which is about 3% of GDP. However GDP doesn't really seem to relate much to our Gross Domestic Production, so it remains to be seen exactly what the impact on GDP is.
Why are dairy prices going to 'recover' at all over the medium term? If the primary reason is because that's the level NZ farmers can compete at then that's no rationale at all.
Most Australian analysts have consistently and massively overestimated where the Iron Ore price would be showing they don't truly understand the market and I fear the same issue with dairy prices.
Why is demand going to keep increasing and why will demand increase more quickly than global supply? Why couldn't there be 4-5 years of sub $5 payouts?
I'm sure farmers are doing everything they can to reduce cost but it feels like there is hardly any concern in the media/general population. Shouldn't this be cause for some alarm?
Agree with your post. It seems many predictions are based upon the 'it used to be higher so will be again' school of thought.
I see lots of countries (some with technology we sold them) all looking at increasing production which would not point to increase in prices.
I hope prices do go up for the sake of NZ, we can't just sell houses to each other.
I see two scenarios that would result in higher prices. A massive drought, or carnage in the industry. Pick your poison. It's not as if NZ is the only diary producer, or even exporter, but everywhere the same thing has happened, increased supply, through intensification or new development. You can't unwind those things very easily, intensification requires additional infrastructure, as does new development. You have to pay for that somehow, and you can't just stop using it, because you still have to pay for it. Next year we will see the newest version of Crafar farms sold off to Shanghai Pengxin, but at the rate they are burning through cash, they may have other concerns than buying another farm.
Dairy;you are in good company; logs, oil, iron ore, copper....etc etc etc. all on the ropes. Business as usual no longer applies, because the last several years misallocation of resources is bearing its bitter fruits. It beggars belief that anyone can't see how much market distortion resulted from the welfare-for-bank-bailouts scam. In the case of China the cities/bridges/railways/airports.... to nowhere merely bought time.
Look at the state of our fiat/fraudulant monetary system;Interest rates negative!!!! I mean REALLY?
Anyone talking about "the markets" has drunk far too much coolaid. The music is faltering; time to find that chair.
Ah but the free marketeers blame the Fed for reacting to their wrong doing, but no its all the FEDs fault!!!!!
I agree on time and the banks however they had to be bailed out of our financial system would have frozen and collapsed. What should have happened is the 1930s laws that were repealed (by Bush?) should have been re-introduced and the banks nationalised and the wrongdoers jailed. No clean up happened so we see the result.
It would appear collapse has not been avoided, merely delayed...?
Had the collapse (maybe simple deposit accounts could have been isolated?) been allowed at least then the consequences would have been felt - perhaps- by those most deserving. Anyway a moot point. Any economist that pretends to comprehend current international events didn't get the textbooks I did. Tooo bizarre!
Just got Fonterra's update schedule.
I pay $6,000 in rent a month (exc GST)
Fonterra are paying me $7,900 for May (received June).
I'm supposed to pay more than minimum wage, AND farm bills on that?
$1,000 is electricity just for the Dairy every month.
The Fonterra notice also had a reminder we have to update the cooling systems, record information for their nitrogen reports, and they want free farmer volunteers to help with the layout of the website.
Just reading today, that Animal Welfare Act is being strengthened too. Not much to worry about there but they can come after anyone who they suspect -might- be doing something wrong to the poor animals.
Looks like the only one without any rights is the farmer.
we said what we could ... but _farmers_ are on farms !! We're doing feed budgets, checking and feeding stock, fixing hooves, stacking feed, spreading magnesium, moving stock, calving cows, milking or weighing stock, washing the vat (new regs it takes much longer), shifting effluent spreaders, shifting irrigators (if you've got one), cleaning out the effluent/sand/grass/hair in the underpass with bucket and shovel, greasing and servicing equipment, fixing broken equipment, spraying weeds, topping paddocks to maintain feed quality, fencing off water ways, trying to find and fix sanitiser and water purity issues, looking for leaky water pipes, fixing leaky troughs, fixing the loose roofing iron or broken corrigated plastic on calf and hay and equipment sheds, trying to update and audit animal records, NAIT tagging, sorting wage issues and carefully filling out wage books, brushing up on new legislation for wages animal handling NAIT farm feed health and safety companies and taxation, fixing drains and water ways, looking for electric fence shorts, clearing weed from around the water intake, running into town for parts or fuel or to talk to lawyers or accountants, fixing or replacing broken tools, fixing or replacing broken motors and pumps, waiting for the power board or other town technician or vet to show up, preg testing, lepto vaccinating, mating (or waiting for the AI tech) to show up, and then there's getting the new calves to feed for the first couple of times, dealing with the sick calves (or downer cows), getting the temperature and time and consistancy of feed same everytime, feeding the older mobs of calves, watching for illness or infirmness, feeding the bobby calves, getting the bobby calves into the pens (and fed in the right time). Doing planning schedules for the above. That's without extra training or cross farm visits or attending Fonterra declarations (they call them "discussions" but they're anything but). [ed: oops... paying the bills online :) ]
That's provided no emergencies come up. Or no particular development work is planned.
On top of that you're supposed to pace yourself, get plenty of sleep, and keep a healthy work-life balance with your family (if they can handle to stink of silage and cow sewerage).
all I'm asking for is minimum wage to pay for the basic bills and Child Support assigned debt from when the missus decided she didn't want to live on a farm. (many more wealthy farmers actually don't make much profit on the farm operation, their partner has a town job, and the partner gets to live free on the farm (so they're not paying town rent/mortgage) all the partners money can be savings or subsidise the farm mortgage.
This means with a small or no mortgage many of those farmland owners, have no capex to pay, their partner subsidises the costs and has no living costs themselves, little interest, so they don't see an issue with subsidising fonterra...or actually running a profitable farming enterprise.
Of course you have rights cowboy. You went into business. You bought a lease by the sounds of it. Most businesses have opportunity to put their prices up. This may or may not be appropriate to continue to get custom. Farmers cant. Therefore we need to show extra consideration in what we pay for our business initially. Ahem....not something we tend to be good at. However just as in any business its often not what you sell your stock for...or service. Its what you buy it for that counts. Now if this government wants a prosperous ag industry it needs to get its head around this. By allowing foreign interests to pick off our farm businesses they raise the entry for all farmers. This weakens the lot of us and in turn weakens the country. Mr Key and co are you listening?
Domino Effect
Belle said - allowing foreign interests to pick off our farms raises the entry price for all farmers. This weakens the lot of us and in turn weakens the country
Such an important aspect that is given so little attention
Not sure why. In Grant Spencer's April 2015 speech in Rotorua it was brushed once-over-lightly and under-emphasised - even though in my view it is the driving force that is impacting on all apsects of New Zealand life.
Is it because the majority of talking heads dont understand it, or dont want to
RBNZ Deputy Governor Grant Spencer speech 15 April 2015
Investors are setting the marginal market prices that are then applied to the full housing stock within a regional market. Indicators point to an increasing presence of investors in the Auckland market and this trend is being reinforced by the expectation of high rates of return based on untaxed capital gains
http://www.interest.co.nz/news/75013/rbnzs-grant-spencer-says-govt-shou…
The Domino Effect - Interest.co.nz 5 November 2012
It only needs 1 sale to trigger off a domino effect of up to 10 subsequent sales resulting from the first one. Multiply that by 100 or 1,000 or even 4,000 high-roller buyers, that cascades into a lot of sales. Probably the best example of that was provided by Basel Brush about three years ago (in 2009) of a non-resident Chinese buyer who paid $1½ million for a house out in Botany with a CV of $800,000. Purchaser was not even in the country. The transaction was done via phone hook-up. A case of price no object. That type of transaction is cash. There is no facility to arrange a local mortgage. It's cash talking. That type of transaction then produces a "Ripple Domino Effect". The next purchase as the seller moves on somewhere else mortgage free. The one initiating transaction triggers off a series of transactions.
Anyway stick around and Listen to the chatter, and connect the dots.
http://www.interest.co.nz/node/61864/property#comment-713561
The reality of what the banks wish for along side their farmer clients is clear to all concerned irrespective of the omission of embedded risk disclosure.
The median farm land price rose by 24 per cent over the past three months to February 2015 compared to the same period last year, although fewer farms have been sold.
.Bayleys Research says the median price for all farms has reached $28,000 per hectare, with values close to their pre-great financial crisis peak reached in early 2009, and likely to persist through 2016 because of low interest rates. Read more
I went into business because I was on a sickness benefit and was offered a sharemilk position.
That sharemilking position left me with a tax bill and debts of $20,000, but I was offered a lease option.
What we "pay for our businesses"? Like f'ing WHAT?
I got cows at $1300ea. that's $800 less. I got the equipment from the guy I sharemilked for at 66% of market.
I pay LESS than cap-ex of 3% on land, plant and shares. That's freaking incredible rate, compare that to any other industry in NZ.
Fonterra is paying my $7900 this month.
6000 goes in rent
1000 goes in electricity (thats just the dairy)
450 goes in district rates
200+ goes in diesil and fuel
150 for phone. internet.
80 for animal records (a legal requirement).
Whats that leave for repair, consumables, fertiliser, insurance.
Or Animal Feed.
or wages?
And I only get 7900, because I have a really flat supply curve which gives me a 0.51c capacity bonus.
Fonterra's newsletter contained a reminder to do their nitrogen report for them, and to remind me that I have to upgrade the refrigeration system.
I called Child Support to say "hey fonterra just pulled all my wages, I can't pay". Child Support say even if you estimate your income now we would only count it back to the 1st of May, so you still have to pay.
At least a toilet scrubber is entitled to minimum wage.... just not a farmer - and those figures I quoted are DAMN good performance. Production is up 6% on last year. expenses are down by 3 - 10%.
The stock I'm selling today I got for $800 (as empties).
The only ones cheating are Fonterra with their price fixing. $4.50 is below cost of production.
But What can I do? Cut hours? Already let the relief milker go (after the dry cow incident) but cutting hours won't do anything since I'm not getting paid for my labour. And legally I MUST feed those animals, legally I have to fill out fonterras paperwork, legally I have to do a bunch of other crap (gst, wages book, fix safety problems).
Stress? depression? sure. more crap to deal with again. If I was a cow, the farmer would be prosecuted for the constant abuse. But since I'm the farmer...sorry, sharemilker... I'm just the constant shmuck who has to pay
I don't think for a lot of farmers sons it is that easy. Alot of them in sheep and beef have chosen not to take on the family farm and get a job in town. Having family money is a foot in the door for some but they still have to take on large mortgages to buy out brothers and sisters. And you also have to take into account that parents often have alot of debt. High land values due to property speculators and investors and average to low earnings mixed in with droughts. And as for dairy farming how many sons or daughters will be taking over the family farm with inflated land values and low milk price. In our area a good cropping, fattening farm was tendered recently and apparently recieved no offers.
I've just emailed the Commissioner of IRD, hopefully the email will get read.
I can handle the low payout ... but I can't budget the clawback. New Child Support wont' go back to start of financial year for estimates, but Fonterra can.
The clawback completely destroys my cashflow. Not only is the customer:-
- setting their own price lower than the production value....
- but they're giving themselves a further discount, AND
- back-dating that discount all their purchases right back to the beginning of the year.
All I'm asking for, is that I've made a top quality, highly effective and cost efficent product with acceptably low environmental factors.... the least that Government and Fonterra can do is see I get minimum wage for my labour. I'm not asking for holidays or weekends, just minimum hourly rate for the product that met their increasing specifications, that they accepted and have sold at their sale price/system. And of course the rent (which is a very low rate (under 3% cap-ex for land, fixed plant, and compulsory shares).
I have no control over the rate Fonterra sells at.
It's only in New Zealand that we get this ridiculously low level price.
And Fonterra has plenty of money to give free milk to schools, to build huge Milk Powder plants, to sponsor things like fielddays and consultants who do very little...but they can't afford to pay enough to meet minimum wage even in an efficient business.
That's all we're talking, the bare minimum for sharemilkers and leasee farmers (and new farmers) that an employee would get... and remember MPI is demanding extra upgrades...no employee has to wear that cost, so the least we could get is minimum wage. (and it's not like any of Fonterra's staff are getting paycuts off their massive paychecks...and they were the ones who failed to get a decent price for our top notch product)
And to top it off Fonterra have the cash to launch a new Organic brand milk... but still no money to pay the cost of production for the majority of what they buy.
I've put in a complaint of price fixing to the Commerce Commision but as usual I will be the lone "whining" voice.
6000 goes in rent. My apologies Cowboy I am not meaning to make this personal. You are fair pushing shite up hill. What I am pointing out is the reason you are paying 6k. The value of the land is so high because the banks were bailed by the govt through allowing foreign sales. The crash of 08 wasnt allowed. Now the likes of yourself to earn a living has to fork out a rental based on land prices set by foreign buyers. If we dont keep pushing this barrow and explaining to these dumbass pollies nothing will change. I am not telling you anything you dont know. I enjoy reading your posts, sometimes I put things a bit plain, dont take offence. I do feel your pain. Been there in the 95 beef crash. Came oh so close to losing the farm. The worry does your head in. I focussed on our partner in business who had let us down....poor bugger, just as well he never knew what I was thinking. But it helped me. Everything was his fault. When I was wet n cold and had 300 hungry calves to feed and half had scours I vigourously shouted his name as the problem. Lol. It got me through. The trouble with beef farming is the downturns can be long. It took about 5 years to come right from 95. The good thing with dairy, your downturns have been short n sharp. Take heart from history.
The neighbour bought the farm for $ 2,200,000; also included in my rent is 55,000 shares current valued at $5.63. No other business would expect $2.5million equity supplied for nothing, the bank certainly don't think so. the tax department certainly don't think so. But Fonterra expects it.
I went through the post-$7 as a sharemilker. I had tax to pay, fonterra had declared $7 was here to stay, my boss swore we'd do 50,000 kg MS minimum. So in April I used my tax savings to go on a training course. Well, Fonterra didn't payout $7, and the boss only managed to do 42,000 kgMS (he wouldn't provide any suppliment feed in August). I was supposed to get 22% of 350,000 = budget 75,000. I got 43,000, which went in tax, child support, debt repayment, and house repairs (which is why I needed the job).
Do you really think that paying 6k a month for 2.5million of asset is a bad deal? I doubt your bank or anywhere else would provide that lower rate.
Initially it was 8.3k a month and included a $750k (42hectare) runoff. But the owners had to sell the runoff to pay for earthquake repairs to their commercial buildings. I had just got the fencing and water sorted for single person management and was starting on the buttercup and nutrient issues.
If someone leased your farm, what kind of return would you expect?
That's why I keep saying to people, keep trying to get it into farmers and residental proeprty owners heads. These things ARE businesses, just like every other small business - there are no special rules (otherwise someone is subsidising it, and if that's the operating farmer how can they afford to stay at pace with the land value in the market, if they losing ground subsidising a below cost operation. A commercial landlord couldn't afford that. They need to keep the building up to code, advertising and infrastructure current, technology within reasonable grasp of modern demands, a business owner can't do that and subsidise a low cost operation.....
The land owners had to put in a $70,000 effluent pond, that was a years gross income, where would the money for that come from if I wasn't paying the correct amount of rent?
Or the underpass under the road for $60,000 the year before.
Or the $300,000 they paid to do the races when they still owned the adjacent property (3.5km lime race)
Even the old herringbone shed (probably 40-50yrs old) is worth over $200,000, and to replace it in a minimal format would be around $300,000 to build - that's only the price of an average build house. A high tech rotary shed could cost more than this farm (around $3million).
The effluent sump ($15,000), pump ($10,000) and pipework ($70,000) all add up too.
36 paddocks, each with troughs and pumped water.
The 5 bedroom (240m2) house is only valued at $80,000. far far less than a similar building town.
6000/month is VERY cheap. Compare that to the rent of just a house in London...at about $100k p.a. (8k per month)
I cautiously welcome this downturn as it will put the blow torch on those that have been in denial regarding our competitive advantage. Winter grazing off farm has never been profitable in Canterbury,but it's been nice to let someone else look after the girls for 6 weeks,and europe is lovely that time of year. had discussions with the grazier today and we both agree the good times are over. Will winter on next year with fodder beet and shoulder supplement will be PK. can survive at $4.50 and to be honest will be just like old times
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BvRcQ5Tm6Kw
here's is a discussion about high world private debt and overcapacity and the affect this is having on growth. Interesting to think about the overcapacity in milk production, I wonder if the Chinese economy drives the world economy but they don't know what they are doing.
A lot of that debt has been spent on production and most commodities are overproduced not just dairy. Countries with large internal markets are a long way ahead of the rest of us.
Coffee
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=d1&t=KC
Lumber
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=d1&t=LB
Some commodities have stayed high but investment is pouring in chasing yield.
>>>>>>
Asset-based Credit rests on the ongoing inflation in asset prices. It is, after all, a real challenge to leverage an asset declining in value. As was experienced in 2009, faltering asset markets incite a self-reinforcing contraction of Credit and asset values. More generally, a system comprised largely of market-based finance rests upon ever-rising security market prices.
I've seen a few comments on over-capacity. Im not so sure if its over-supply or under-demand though. In some ways over-capacity is result of the free market in action IMHO.
I sort of agree with him, and its an interesting and worth watching piece, thanks. He's following work of others like Steve Keen/Minskie. In fact I think you can look back at the 1920s as similar in terms of private debt.
I dont 100% agree it was caused by debt as such, but expensive energy also played a considerable part, its one huge mix.
You should always take an item back to its primary form IMHO. Debt is money and money is an IOU for future work/energy. As you look at the debt increasing I think its a result of oil price increasing. So to my mind to continue grow an economy you need excess energy, if that is un-affordable then you can on a temp basis substitute in debt which is a "good" that requires no energy to bring into existence. However that work/energy has to be repaid with interest. ie energy + %energy in a system already starved of energy, in the future.
Cowboy,I am really sorry to hear the position you find yourself in,through no fault of your own,trying to make a buck & getting off your rearend&(social welfare handouts) to make a better life for yourself & through circumstances beyond your control ,your finances have taken a severe hit.But I have read your input through this column & myself & other regular readers know you are one SMART cocky.You sound to me as if you need to find another larger position ,where you can take all your cows & gear & get the Benifit of scope & be better rewarded for your efforts.Have you considered Southland as a contract milker,paid on a cents per kilo of milk solids- no worries about payout fluctuations ,only have to supply bikes,abit of calving gear &employ .Southland has plenty of opportunities for people just like you,hardworking,knowledgeable & would gain from your intellect. All the very best & remember the sun will shine again & pray that your situation will turn around quickly & please keep your comments coming, it gives those jaffas in Auckland something else to think on.
sadly the mental health damage I suffered at te hands of WINZ and Child Support after being hit by the 2004 floods mean I don't have the mental endurance to handle such a position or staff.
I'm looking forward to the housesitting deal I've got set up in town, and I'm probably going to have a word to the local supermarket, with the solar gear I've got, cheap Internet deal, I can probably get by on less than 15hrs work a week stacking shelves since minimum wage is so high. Got some interesting things in aquaponics I was wanting to try (I was going to run some PVC & SS pipes on verticial racks, using pipes as vertical bars about 2m meters long, on a horizontal circle made pipe water&nutrient supply (if you can imagine a mouse wheel on it's end. Put each round piece, suspended on a track (hose into to top with air gap, collection pipe at bottom. Have each "vertical mouse wheel" moving on a pulled track like a curtain track, doing a 18 - 50 day round. Set them up near the cowshed sump, pump the liquid effluent (green water) in at the top, run some metering for nutrient levels at the bottom at the end of the return, use the feedback information to add suppliments to keep it right. Put these in big loops with a pointy tip, like a indie 500 race track with it's hairpin, put the hair pin of several of these near the concrete exit race of the dairy. Could even look at covering it with a transparent roof car port, and perhaps some PV powered grow lamps.
Have the movement come from hydralic action probably, like some backing gates have. Use wire linkages between centers as a brake/advance control.alarm (stuck). Just have them stepping along the track, slowly rotating a face at the race.
Cows can eat 2m, so it's a question of how many "mouse wheels" fit along my exit race, as the main part of the track can fan out to give it a "grazing rounds" worth of growing time.
the vertical pipes have holes in the them which takes seed, the liquid effluent drops from the top through the roots, an Arduino microcontroller can monitor the weight of the liquid reaching the bottom, use that information to control the solenoids at the top to ensure the correct supply rate, use an overflow switch as a master control/alarm, as well as a moisture sensor (basically two wires) as a failsafe alarm for no water.
I had a kilo of clover and kilo of lucerne seed, to run some trials on how they grew in dairy effluent.
Also figured could use mag chorlide and soluble calcium to ensure the plants were well endowed at the critcal times of the year.
Excess and normal waste water would just go into the normal effluent system, but have some of the nutrient loading removed.
Use of electronic pest systems would keep most insect bugs away, the water does sit much so shouldn't make a health hazard. Should also be quite scale-able so even one partly populated wheel, doing a once a week visit to the race to be grazed, would be suitable for proof of concept.
When I get stuck in town I'm going to see if I can test it with carrots and raddishs. Which were also options instead of clover/lucercne for stock feed. But the clover is vegetation grazed, unlike carrots which are consumed.
forgot to add, the "mouse wheel" pretty much looks like two 200litre drums, one on top of other. Idea being that they rotate around the centre, similar to the machine attractions at the amusement park or A&P show. At night or poor days, the plants can rotate to face the inner side, on good days rotate to follow the sun using simple solar seeking algorithms . This means LED strip lights can be placed in the center as the grow lights, any heat released merely wards against frost (or if too warm, vented out the top)
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