OCR
The Reserve Bank could lift the Official Cash Rate one more time early in 2024
17th Aug 23, 5:00am
21
The Reserve Bank could lift the Official Cash Rate one more time early in 2024
Reserve Bank leaves Official Cash Rate unchanged at 5.50% but says interest rates need to remain at a restrictive level for some time
16th Aug 23, 2:18pm
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Reserve Bank leaves Official Cash Rate unchanged at 5.50% but says interest rates need to remain at a restrictive level for some time
Strong US retail sales; strong UK wage inflation; poor China activity data and surprise PBoC rate cut; strong Japan GDP, and another poor GDT dairy auction. NZD resilient under the circumstances
16th Aug 23, 7:56am
Strong US retail sales; strong UK wage inflation; poor China activity data and surprise PBoC rate cut; strong Japan GDP, and another poor GDT dairy auction. NZD resilient under the circumstances
[updated]
A survey for the Reserve Bank shows that households think inflation is going to be NEARLY back in the RBNZ's 1% to 3% target range in two years' time, while house prices will rise next year and continue to rise
15th Aug 23, 3:43pm
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A survey for the Reserve Bank shows that households think inflation is going to be NEARLY back in the RBNZ's 1% to 3% target range in two years' time, while house prices will rise next year and continue to rise
Sentiment on China remains pessimistic. Large shadow bank under the spotlight after missed bond payments. UST 10yr rate hits fresh high for the year. NZGB 10-year yield closed at its highest level since 2011
15th Aug 23, 7:41am
1
Sentiment on China remains pessimistic. Large shadow bank under the spotlight after missed bond payments. UST 10yr rate hits fresh high for the year. NZGB 10-year yield closed at its highest level since 2011
While the Reserve Bank's widely expected to keep the Official Cash Rate unchanged this week, some experts on NZIER's 'Shadow Board' think higher rates are needed
14th Aug 23, 11:37am
17
While the Reserve Bank's widely expected to keep the Official Cash Rate unchanged this week, some experts on NZIER's 'Shadow Board' think higher rates are needed
Above consensus US PPI data raised concerns the downshift in core prices has stalled. UST yields higher with 10-year back towards the highs for 2023. University of Michigan inflation expectations fell
14th Aug 23, 7:25am
Above consensus US PPI data raised concerns the downshift in core prices has stalled. UST yields higher with 10-year back towards the highs for 2023. University of Michigan inflation expectations fell
David Hargreaves examines the Reserve Bank's forthcoming OCR review, saying all eyes will be on its updated economic forecasts & whether it has changed its opinion on the path of inflation & interest rates
13th Aug 23, 6:00am
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David Hargreaves examines the Reserve Bank's forthcoming OCR review, saying all eyes will be on its updated economic forecasts & whether it has changed its opinion on the path of inflation & interest rates
Another benign US CPI result, core up 0.16% m/m, adding to the case that the Fed tightening cycle might be done. Tepid 30-year US bond auction drags up long end of the curve
11th Aug 23, 7:48am
Another benign US CPI result, core up 0.16% m/m, adding to the case that the Fed tightening cycle might be done. Tepid 30-year US bond auction drags up long end of the curve
USTs and currency markets stay in narrow ranges ahead of US CPI. Brent crude at $88/bbl, the highest levels since January and up 20% since June on tightening supply. China consumer and producer prices both fell
10th Aug 23, 8:03am
USTs and currency markets stay in narrow ranges ahead of US CPI. Brent crude at $88/bbl, the highest levels since January and up 20% since June on tightening supply. China consumer and producer prices both fell
[updated]
Influential RBNZ survey shows a slight rise in the expected level of inflation in two years time
9th Aug 23, 3:22pm
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Influential RBNZ survey shows a slight rise in the expected level of inflation in two years time
Risk appetite weaker following poor China trade data, Moody's ratings downgrades of US banks and windfall tax on bank profits proposed by Italy. Global rates lower. USD enjoys safe-haven flows
9th Aug 23, 7:53am
1
Risk appetite weaker following poor China trade data, Moody's ratings downgrades of US banks and windfall tax on bank profits proposed by Italy. Global rates lower. USD enjoys safe-haven flows
Higher US equities, global rates curves re-steepen, US 10-year rate pushes higher. NZD flat around 0.61; yen the weakest of the majors. US government shutdown chatter restarts
8th Aug 23, 7:49am
Higher US equities, global rates curves re-steepen, US 10-year rate pushes higher. NZD flat around 0.61; yen the weakest of the majors. US government shutdown chatter restarts
Economists at Westpac and ANZ still see the combination of economic resilience and 'sticky' inflation as forcing the Reserve Bank to raise the Official Cash Rate again
7th Aug 23, 1:33pm
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Economists at Westpac and ANZ still see the combination of economic resilience and 'sticky' inflation as forcing the Reserve Bank to raise the Official Cash Rate again
Markets took direction from the weaker than expected US payrolls data amid the mixed signals. Their jobless rate dipped to 3.5% and average hourly earnings were stronger than expected. The USD fell sharply as did UST yields
7th Aug 23, 7:15am
Markets took direction from the weaker than expected US payrolls data amid the mixed signals. Their jobless rate dipped to 3.5% and average hourly earnings were stronger than expected. The USD fell sharply as did UST yields
Global bond market selloff continues overnight; US 10-year rate up to almost 4.2%, a fresh high for the year; curve steepens for 8th consecutive day. BoJ steps in again to contain rise in 10-year JGB yield
4th Aug 23, 8:01am
Global bond market selloff continues overnight; US 10-year rate up to almost 4.2%, a fresh high for the year; curve steepens for 8th consecutive day. BoJ steps in again to contain rise in 10-year JGB yield
The Reserve Bank is now set fair to 'watch, worry and wait' its way through the election
3rd Aug 23, 8:30am
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The Reserve Bank is now set fair to 'watch, worry and wait' its way through the election
Another strong US ADP payrolls print. US Treasuries curve steepens (again); 10-year rises to fresh high for the year, peaking at 4.12% overnight. USD well supported in a weaker risk appetite environment
3rd Aug 23, 7:54am
Another strong US ADP payrolls print. US Treasuries curve steepens (again); 10-year rises to fresh high for the year, peaking at 4.12% overnight. USD well supported in a weaker risk appetite environment
David Hargreaves examines financial statistics for the first six months of the year showing money being 'sucked out' of consumers' pockets both through higher mortgage and deposit rates
2nd Aug 23, 9:11am
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David Hargreaves examines financial statistics for the first six months of the year showing money being 'sucked out' of consumers' pockets both through higher mortgage and deposit rates
US Treasury yields higher, led by the long end of the curve. Sentiment on increased supply and BoJ's move last week probably not helping. GDT dairy auction poor
2nd Aug 23, 8:04am
US Treasury yields higher, led by the long end of the curve. Sentiment on increased supply and BoJ's move last week probably not helping. GDT dairy auction poor
Chinese equities advanced with officials announcing more measures to support the construction sector and boost consumption. The Bank of Japan announced an unscheduled bond purchase operation to slow the move higher in JGB yields
1st Aug 23, 7:55am
Chinese equities advanced with officials announcing more measures to support the construction sector and boost consumption. The Bank of Japan announced an unscheduled bond purchase operation to slow the move higher in JGB yields
Latest RBNZ lending figures show the total stock of mortgage borrowing has hit $350 billion for the first time, while the nearly $1.2 billion growth in the 'mortgage pile' last month was the most since November last year
31st Jul 23, 3:59pm
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Latest RBNZ lending figures show the total stock of mortgage borrowing has hit $350 billion for the first time, while the nearly $1.2 billion growth in the 'mortgage pile' last month was the most since November last year
Growing hopes that the US economy can achieve a soft landing where the US Federal Reserve gets inflation under control without triggering a recession. US data showed a cooling in inflation pressures
31st Jul 23, 7:41am
Growing hopes that the US economy can achieve a soft landing where the US Federal Reserve gets inflation under control without triggering a recession. US data showed a cooling in inflation pressures
Inflation still has a long way to fall but a 'soft landing' remains possible
Run of stronger than expected US economic activity data continues. ECB hikes, keeps options open for more. Reports BoJ will tweak of its yield curve control policy
28th Jul 23, 7:52am
Run of stronger than expected US economic activity data continues. ECB hikes, keeps options open for more. Reports BoJ will tweak of its yield curve control policy