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The Opening Bell: Where currencies start on Friday, March 4, 2016

Currencies
The Opening Bell: Where currencies start on Friday, March 4, 2016

By Dan Bell

The NZDUSD opens at 0.6752 (mid-rate) this morning.

The NZD continued its strong rally overnight after a significant amount of poor U.S. and also U.K. data. The kiwi opens up against all its major trading partners

U.S. Jobless claims unexpectedly climbed by 6,000 to 278,000 in the week ended Feb. 27, the four-week average dropped to the lowest level since the end of November.

The revised U.S. Nonfarm Productivity for the fourth quarter decreased at a 2.2% annual rate and not the 3.0% reported last month but it was still the biggest drop since the first quarter of 2014. U.S Labour costs were revised for the quarter too/ Output increased 0.1% and hours worked increased 3.3%.

U.S. Services activity fell for the first time since October 2013. The PMI Index fell to 49.7 – a reading below 50.0 indicates contraction. The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI was 53.4 down from the 53.5 the previous month. U.S. Factory Orders were up 1.6% but the market was looking for an increase of 2.1%.

U.K. Annual house price growth was unchanged at 9.7% however the monthly change was down 1.4% worse than the 0.1% increase the market was anticipating.

The U.K. services growth was the weakest in nearly 3 years in February. The seasonally adjusted Business Activity Index fell to 52.7 in February, from 55.6 in January. This signalled the slowest rise in service sector activity since March 2013.

Global equity markets are modestly down except Asia which is up : Dow -0.2%, S&P 500 -0.15%, FTSE -0.27%, DAX -0.25%, CAC -0.2%, Nikkei +1.28%, Shanghai +0.35%.

Gold prices are up $17 (1.4%) trading at $1257 an ounce, WTI Crude Oil steady currently 0.1% at $34.66 a barrel.

Current indicative rates:

NZDUSD       0.6752      1.7%
NZDEUR       0.6161      0.8%
NZDGBP       0.4771      1.1%
NZDJPY         76.62       1.6%
NZDAUD       0.9150      0.4%
NZDCAD       0.9027      1.1%


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Dan Bell is the senior currency strategist at HiFX in Auckland. You can contact him here »

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