Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
None here either.
TWO OWNERS FOR EVERY RENTER
Stats NZ said as at 30 September 2023 there were estimated to be 2,063,200 private dwellings, and 1,986,900 households. Of those dwellings, 1,331,700 were owner-occupied, and 731,600 were either rented, or supplied free (as part of employment arrangements, mostly). While that is a lot of renters, it is clear from this data that owner-occupiers outrank renters 2:1 - which perhaps is why renter voices get little traction. Often a lot of noise, yes. But little policy action. While the numbers are rising, the proportions are little-changed in decades.
DO YOUR BIT. DO IT PROPERLY
The last of the political party policies are being released now. With a week to go until Election Day (October 14), minds are getting made up on how to vote. This may have been an uninspiring election campaign, but there may be some pockets of voters for whom specialist policies can attract support. So today we got releases from the Labour Party and the National Party. Labour promised a new Anti-Scamming Unit to protect us from the internet underworld. The National Party said it would establish a Minister for Space to promote the local aerospace industry. Going before them have been a wide range of policy from all parties. You can compare what interest you, here. But if polls are any indication, principled voting may not carry the day; it looks like we are going to have to live with throw-back political influencers. His rise in the polls is dispiriting for any real change. It is likely to induce widespread apathy especially among young voters and reinforce the dominance of boomer votes in this election. But that can be avoided if everyone votes, and knows what they are voting for, and why.
WINNING YEAR
SBS Bank said it has been named ‘Mutual of the Year’ at the Cooperative Business New Zealand Annual Awards. They beat FMG. The same press release revealed that SBS Bank won "8,531 new members last year, including a record number of first home buyers".
FEELING FLUSH & SPENDING AGAIN
Japanese household spending unexpected rose more than expected in August from July (+3.9%). It might still be lower than a year ago, but the month-on-month rise impressed financial markets.
NO REASON TO WORRY ABOUT HOUSEHOLD FINANCIAL STRESS
In Australia, the RBA has been looking at household financial stress in their latest Financial Stability Review. They say early indicators show that financial pressures have increased and the incidence of severe financial stress has increased but remains low. The group of borrowers at higher risk of falling into arrears on their mortgage remains small. You can find this review on page 53. Household financial stress, where it occurs, does not vary much across the country.
SWAPS ON HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are probably little-changed today. But the real reaction will come at the close. Our chart will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is down -1 bp at 5.69% and now +19 bps above the OCR but this rate was set before the OCR. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -2 bps from this time yesterday to 4.56%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 2.71% although there is no local market while they remain in holiday. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -3 bps to 5.58%, and still above the earlier RBNZ fixing of 5.50% which was up +3 bps today. The UST 10 year yield has settled in at 4.72% and unchanged. The UST 2yr has also changed little at 5.03%. So the curve inversion unwinding is holding.
EQUITIES MIXED
The NZX50 is down -0.5% near the end of trade today and heading for a weekly loss of -0.4%. The ASX200 is also up +0.4% in early afternoon trade, and if they hold that, they will have fallen -1.3% for the week. Tokyo is unchanged in early Friday trade, but heading for a weekly loss of -3.2%. Hong Kong is up +1.5% in early trade and those gains may have eliminated all the losses in the prior week. Shanghai is closed this week, probably thankful they missed the volatility. Wall Street ended its Thursday trade with the S&P500 down an insignificant -0.1% which is a 'good' result considering how much it was down in intra-day trade. For the four days so far this week they have recorded a -0.4% loss.
GOLD'S STAYS DOWN
In early Asian trade, gold is now at US$1824/oz and down -US$4 from this time yesterday. Earlier it closed in New York at US$1820/oz, and earlier still it closed unchanged in London at US$1819/oz.
NZD GAINS AGAIN
The Kiwi dollar rose +¼c today to be now at 59.6 USc and making back more of the earlier dip. Against the Aussie we are firm too, now up at 93.7 AUc and against the euro we are firmish at 56.6 euro cents, both also a +¼c gain. That means the TWI-5 is now up +30 bps at 69.9.
BITCOIN SLIPS SLIGHTLY
The bitcoin price is a bit firmer today, now at US$27,539 and down -0.8% from where we were this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just over +/- 1.3%.
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46 Comments
If you can still work and you want to why not ? No doubt many still have a mortgage still to pay and actually want to do a cruise once a year so they have to keep working, you cannot afford to retire in many cases. You cannot actually live on the super unless you are debt free.
I don't think anyone's blaming the individual, it's the collective that needs to work out that super in it's current form will tank the country. The baby boomers are still the largest voting block and are the ones that will benefit most by keeping super non means tested, so its hard to see any meaningful change happening till that changes.
I read of someone who has their own small business and is in their 70's, but they refuse to take super, as they don't believe they should when they are working, when that money could be spent on often things that tax normally pays for. Apparently they don't make much more than what they would get from Super. But work seems to be their hobby and life. But then you have politicians who get a big wages but also claim all the tax payer entitlements they can can including super if over 65.
Not taking Super in that circumstance is rational so long as you believe the govt will spend the money more wisely than you can yourself.
Personally if I was in that situation I'd take the Super and donate to my three charities: Cancer research, Hospice and the Sallies. The govt might use that cash for headed stationery for a new ministry of Space or employing extra staff to administer GST off fruit and veg.
That's my thought. If super is still not means tested when I retire and I don't need it, I'll still take it for sure. Even though I'm totally against non-means tested super, I'll probably selfishly let the super accumulate in a separate account and then once a year divvy up lump sum cash payments for the extra kudos.
Change the tax system. some still working such as many Nurses in the ICU ward in Auckland City hospital, according to our daughter, still need the income. No doubt throughout New Zealand many are still in the same case. Stop giving families the special tax breaks. Fairs fair.
We have a couple of over 65's in external sales roles. Full personal use company vehicles, health insurance, life insurance. Cruising along in low gear doing the absolute bare minimum, palming off as much work as they can onto the younger internal sales people, all while gloating about receiving super (and not needing it).
We created an additional external role surplus to needs to retain one of the good young fellas. He wasn't going to sit around for the next 10 years waiting for them to decide it's time to retire.
In Australia, the RBA has been looking at household financial stress in their latest Financial Stability Review. They say early indicators show that financial pressures have increased and the incidence of severe financial stress has increased but remains low.
The same RBA that was hiding information showing record financial stress among high-income h'holds. Of course incidence can be low depending on your metrics.
Russia has more or less taken over the operations of Danone and Carlsberg in their domestic markets. Free production assets. Not the first time this has happened. Happened to Nestle during the Vietnam War.
Carlsberg has written down the entire value of its Russian business and terminated agreements allowing the local subsidiary to sell the company’s products. The decision comes three months after the Danish brewer’s subsidiary Baltika, Russia’s biggest and most popular beer brand, was placed under state control.
https://www.ft.com/content/578cd154-2ab8-41d7-9308-54fc986946bd
Voting. Now that is an interesting act. My other half watched the Jack Tame interview with Winston Peters. We have both voted. I learnt last night as he talked to our daughter, how he cast his vote. Yes the Act person running in the electorate, but he gave the party vote to New Zealand First. Why, Jack Tame. This is, the solid vote National, all his life. And what he said he doesn't trust either National nor Labour and they need to get the message. Crikey.
Silvi - having an offspring yet voting for your short-term gain at the expense of them being able to live at all.....
suggests a certain cranial shortcoming.
Do some reading about the Limits to Growth. Climate-alteration (let me guess, your other half is a denier - it tends to be a prerequisite of the territory) is merely one facet of the Polycrisis.
Try this thesis - she was working for KPMG at the time https://dash.harvard.edu/handle/1/37364868
I'm suspecting a non-reader, and probably a Hosking listener, but give it a go with as little pre-bias as possible. Think as hard as you can. And watch that link I put up on Breakfast Briefings.
The world is not what the likes of Seymour and Hosking tell us, I suggest... Or any of the others, for that matter - although the Greens could perhaps get there from where they are at a stretch.
Australia concludes China decoupling ‘impossible’ after carrying out series of classified studies
- Separate administrations conducted investigations into the feasibility of ‘diversifying’ import-export relationship, all resolved such a decoupling would be unmanageable
- Current relations came after years of networking by exporters and cannot be replicated elsewhere, analysts say
Thought this comment above was a bit odd? I assume it is talking about Winston?
" it looks like we are going to have to live with throw-back political influencers. His rise in the polls is dispiriting for any real change. It is likely to induce widespread apathy especially among young voters and reinforce the dominance of boomer votes in this election. But that can be avoided if everyone votes, and knows what they are voting for, and why."
Important comment from transcript of Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong's closing dialogue at the Asia Future Summit 2023 on 5 October 2023. Smoke signaling. Very tactful.
The Americans have been a major force in Asia since at least the Second World War. It is now nearly coming on 80 years. And they remain welcomed. I mean there are times when people talk about the Ugly Americans. But given that it is 80 years — two and a half generations, three generations — actually the Americans have been dominant in this region, while giving countries space to grow, to develop, to compete with one another peacefully and not to be held down or squatted upon. And that is why they are still welcomed after so many years. And if the Chinese can achieve something like that, I think the region can prosper.
https://www.pmo.gov.sg/Newsroom/PM-Lee-Hsien-Loong-Closing-Dialogue-at-…
Other news from a notorious money laundering nation.
"In Australia, the RBA has been looking at household financial stress...the incidence of severe financial stress has increased but remains low"
Oh Boy. When Martin North from DFA sees that RBA report he will be taking to Youtube like a storm shouting that many Ozzies are being crushed and the RBA is full of shit.
Is now about the time we start whining about how many working groups each political party will have in their first term?
Here's the list of National's in 2009. I don't have a comprehensive list of Labour's unfortunately, but their first term was a similar number than National's.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1f6wGvy1KkR08oFeNx97VKfOmHSHL-Ze…
https://thestandard.org.nz/guest-post-how-many-working-groups-did-the-l…
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