Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
None here either.
WIDE VARIATION, BUT STILL DECLINES
The value of new residential building work put in place and some types of commercial construction, is starting to decline. After inflation, this means the volume of work is definitely declining because the value was flat from the same period a year ago. As always there was wide variation with Auckland up +5.6% and Wellington down -17% (mostly residential).
MORE WIDE VARIATIONS
The latest vehicle sales data for November shows wide variations too, with twists and turns largely related to regulations or expectations of changing regulations. November’s new registrations were boosted by a whopping 4,466 rental units. This is the highest number of monthly rental registrations in the past 4 years contributing to more than 30% of registrations in November. This was a welcome boost for car dealers as light commercial registrations continue to be significantly impacted with savvy consumers awaiting the upcoming removal of Clean Car Discount Fees. Commercial registrations were down -32% on November a year ago and -41% on November 2021. Overall, November registrations remain -7.1% lower than November 2022 (15,621 units) and -11% lower than November 2021 (16,327 units).
THE 'HOUSE' IS STILL WINNING
The weight of the commercial slowdown is starting to affect the taxes being collected by the Crown. Although taxes on individuals are up +6.1% year-on-year in the twelve months to October (thanks largely to inflation and bracket-creep), taxes on company profits are -14% lower reflecting lower profitability. GST also shows inflationary spending plus some real growth with it up +9.4%. Also up is the Crown's tax-take on interest earnings. Higher rates may hurt it on the bond debt newly issued, but the have collected $2.7 bln in withholding taxes on interest over the past twelve months, compared to less than $1 bln in the same period to October 2022. Overall, taxes collected in those same 12 months to October were +6.6% higher the the equivalent prior year.
COMMODITY PRICES SOFTEN
The ANZ World Commodity Price Index fell -1.3% in November from October, ending the recent run of stronger prices. Food commodity prices generally fell while prices for logs and aluminium improved. In New Zealand dollar terms, the index fell -2.5% on the same basis to be -2.1% lower on an annual basis.
KEEPING FINANCIAL MARKETS FAIR
The FMA released its 2023 Annual Report, a pretty dry read to be fair. They tick off what they see as accomplishments (as usual for annual reports) and that includes the observation that the won the largest court civil penalty under fair dealing provisions ($3.5 mlm), with further penalty judgements and 3 proceedings filed in similar cases.
DECISIONS MADE IN RBNZ BANK LIQUIDITY REVIEW
In its ongoing review of banks' liquidity policy, the Reserve Bank says it has made two key decisions. They are: Not to adopt international liquidity metrics because its existing metrics work well and it would be expensive to change them, and the assets classed as liquid under the new Reserve Bank policy, comprising of Level 1 and Level 2 liquid assets, will see Level 1 liquid assets being NZ Government Bonds and related instruments, with Level 2 liquid assets including Local Government Funding Agency securities and highly rated Kauri securities, subject to a cap. Another consultation paper is due in the April quarter next year, with the review set to run until at least late 2026.
CONSOLIDATIONS
Forsyth Barr today announced that it has purchased Hobson Wealth. This is just one of the consolidation moves in the local advice and funds management industry. Rumours are that part of Jarden's similar business will be hived off to Aussies, the NAB-owned JBWere. And BNZ KiwiSaver is also in the same rumour mill.
IN TUNE WITH FELLOW CENTRAL BANKERS
The Reserve Bank of Australia is meeting today and is expected to deliver a "hawkish hold", mimicking many other central banks. Their rate is almost certain to stay at 4.35% and come with the usual "it could go either way" warning on inflation. We will cover the actual outcome at 4:30pm NZT. Update: RBA made no change. Their Statement is here.
LIAR LOAN APPLICATIONS
Meanwhile, contractors charged with verifying borrower mortgage applications in Australia are picking up a rising trend of fabrications and 'untruths' (ie lies) in these application representation documents as potential \borrowers dance faster to stay with their home ownership (or car buying) dreams there.
SWAPS HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are probably little-changed today. However, the key reaction will come at the close. Our chart will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged at 5.63% and now +13 bps above the OCR. The Australian 10 year bond yield is unchanged 4.46%. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 2.71%. And the NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -3 bps at 5.02%, while the earlier RBNZ fixing was at 4.99% which was up +2 bps today. The UST 10 year yield is now at 4.26% and up +2 bps from yesterday. The UST 2yr is now at 4.64% so that key curve inversion is little-changed at -38 bps.
EQUITIES RETREAT
The NZX50 is heading for a minor -0.2% retreat in late trade today. But the ASX200 is down a more substantial -0.9% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened down -1.4%. Hong Kong has opened down -1.2% with its usual volatility. Shanghai is down -0.6% at its open. And Singapore is little-changed at its start. The S&P500 ended down -0.5% in Monday trade in New York.
OIL SLIPS AGAIN
The crude oil price is down -US$1 from yesterday, now at a low US$73.50/bbl in the US, and the Brent benchmark is at US$78/bbl.
GOLD RETRACES
In early Asian trade, gold is now at US$2034/oz and down a sharp -US$57 from this time yesterday as the yellow metal seems to have gotten ahead of itself. Earlier it closed at US$2029/oz in New York, and at US$2049/oz earlier still in London.
NZD SLIPS
The Kiwi dollar is down -40 bps from this time yesterday at 61.7 USc. Against the Aussie we have held up at 93.2 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at 56.9 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is now at 70.5 and down -30 bps.
BITCOIN RISES FURTHER
The bitcoin price has moved up to US$41,736, a new 20 month high and up +3.8% from where this time yesterday. It was last at this level on April, 2022 when it was falling. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.3%.
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115 Comments
I somehow doubt you've given any serious consideration to how many are about to fall behind on mortgage repayments throughout 2024/5. I hear on top of 25% insurance premium increases, Councils are going for double digit rate increases too Hamilton is proposing 25.5! The true cost of home ownership is bubbling to the surface. This alone will present a serious headwind. Autumn 2024, watch the market start falling again much like last autumn.
...in case you hadn't noticed, it already has. Landlords are currently struggling to pass on increased costs to the tenant. The tenant is tapped out. Those owner/occupiers that bought in more recently, it's a tough thing to admit that renting the same home is actually cheaper. Look at it as a costly form of denial. Look carefully at the rent held up against the interest, rates, insurance and maintenance.
House prices have more downside potential than up....
I see entire NZ Market down 8% in 2024, lets see.... I see worse for Taupo and lakes area, worse for regions. And this year worse for QTown as it catches a global sniffle.. Watch China , big trouble brewing in domestic economy... maybe a china philly spat in SC sea
Careful now, there is one peculiar Sp - - - - - r, that if you mention houses are too expensive he gets angry that rental income is not mentioned. The same Sp - - - - - -r, has been reminded on several occasions to consider interest, rates, insurance and maintenance involved with home ownership but refuses to do so. Its more about the speculator, not the FHB owner occupier. It's quite gross really.
World population has trebled since WW2 to 8 billion & a third increase since 2000 (6 billion).
"Thanks" to the Industrial revolution.
They don't need to buy it, they just need to rent it off their local friendly property investor who buys it for them (bidding over a local first home buyer in the process). But at the moment the investor is better off investing their money in term deposits (even though it means paying tax for a change).
In a rational world rest home staff could afford an average NZ home. They are distinctly above average workers: a tricky job (I couldn't do it) with shift work and physical work and unpleasant aspects.
Covid shutdown made it clear which workers are critical and it wasn't academics, journalists, computer programmers.
Sadly the nurses in rest homes are still budgeted for below minimum wage pay by Te FU Ora. It is clearly marked on their website that Care and Support Workers such as residential nurses and rest home support worker staff who do things like meds, bathing, wound care, medical checks, dressing, food assistance etc are set to wages below minimum whenever they start with a new employer (regardless of the decades of experience prior and the years of training) and only after years more will they will only slightly increase to still far below a living wage.
Managers and administrators got their pay bump though first. Go figure. I guess it is still more profitable at Te FU Ora to have clients and patients die from neglect and lack of staffing while the managers get even better holidays overseas and another investment property to buy.
Merry Christmas everyone and you may want to check on any relatives in rest homes, or residential care facilities and hospitals. Look for signs of bruising, infection/sepsis, their weight and state of cleaning around their apartment. Ask them how much assistance they have for outings and make bookings for them now with the GP for an OT and NASC ready for support needs now because it can take years to get approvals when they desperately need it and might die without it.
I read somewhere that in NZ there are over 400 graduates in film and animation per year and less than ten get a relevant job. Kiwis competing hard for that work. For some reason not for working in rest homes - it is clear NZ has the wrong priorities especially now AI can generate videos but robots can't do care work.
How can those priorities be changed? Firstly fewer foreigners - other countries insist on no area of employment having over 50% work visas or immigrants. Not a bad law for making a govt actually think. Increase pay is obvious. Add an annual govt paid for 'study' period with all expenses paid: consisting of flights to anywhere in the world, quality hotels, vehicle hire/taxi fares to check out best care home practice - a good old-fashioned freebie junket.
Very wise words. NASC is so swapmed nationwide currently GPs must be hesitant to refer, and the referrals are taking much longer to be actioned due to lack of staffing. Sad state of affairs for those who have worked their life through and often vulnerable and need the help more than most.
In early Asian trade, gold is now at US$2034/oz and down a sharp -US$57 from this time yesterday as the yellow metal seems to have gotten ahead of itself.
The charade last night was amusing. You had to laugh at the blatant market manipulation. In the space of 2 hours, the gold and silver prices were slammed. We're talking volumes equivalent to annual production of both commodities. All done by keystroke. And the precious metals desk at JP Morgan gets to clip the ticket. No questions asked. Back slapping all around.
Whether or not that shows that the ruling elite wear the pants is yet to be confirmed. Personally I think that it's just another example of the extent to which free markets have been perverted. And in the precious metals vs rat poison debate, I think somewhat of a win to the latter.
I bet the desk sold their own clip first then executed the block trades....... just saying it could have happened that way or the prop guy just got the urge to sell about the same time... as you do... hard to loose when you are the house. Options desk probably go the urge to sell a load of vol at about the same time.......
the CCTV cameras where switched off for maintenance......China does not want gold to talk the truth either J.C. NO ONE wants the deflation of FIAT Collapse on their watch..... No one runs to the least Fiaty currency as that occurs, its the whole Emperor has no clothes (Or perhaps - Masks don't work) thing....... Red Pill / Blue Pill etc etc People are scared about the truth so do not want to question it...... BTC rise must be putting the fear of god into the financial community - many who hold this time
The Maori party doesn't seem to understand democracy very well. NZ has voted a new government in, so there are new rules that the majority of Kiwis wanted. Creating chaos on the streets because the Maori party is not getting its way, is acting like a petulant child.
I had to travel across AKL today, it could have been a lot worse, the protest was well communicated, and cleared quickly allowing almost normal movements by 930-10am. I have no time for the protest as National have yet to do much... but trust me it could have been way way worse, they behaved pretty well.
Protesters respected police and police respected protesters.....
No but I remember many people complaining for years that National really won and how unfair it was. I seem to recall some tractors at one stage.
Protests have been going on forever, I’m sure if NACTNZF had decided to implement Winnie’s toilet policies the transgenders would also be protesting.
It was hardly chaos on the streets. In Hamilton protestors just stood on the edge of major intersections and outside community centres. I cycled to work and it was quite touching being able to cruise past and wave. Everyone was smiling and saying 'kia ora bro' ; without the context from the media you would not have known it was a protest to be honest.
You are absolutely right Jimbo, but it does mean that 88% of voters didn't vote for the Green Party, and were not too keen on their policies, which are basically socialist with a little bit of "green" mixed in so that they can still dare to call themselves "The Green Party". Though I'm sure it wont be long till they call themselves Te Pati Kakariki.
I respect every voter, Nats, ACT etc.
I respect TPM voters too. Unfortunately they were not able to join up with others to form a government. (Happy with that bit)
To operate in government now you gotta co-operate with others, share views not your own. (That bit I really like)
We are a diverse country, and operating together is what makes it functional.
A lot of National supporters want what is being done now. I want this done, so do many others. People like me switched our votes from National to ACT to ensure this got done. To give ACT and NZ First the numbers they needed to ensure action is taken. National probably actually want this too. They have ACT and NZ First to lead the action and do what they wanted to do anyway. Ain’t MMP great. Let’s see how the left enjoy cancel culture…just done better.
Those tax stats seem a bit out, David. You are using a range of different methods to create numbers and the reader might reasonably assume that they are equivalent. For example, if you use the method you have used to arrive at the -14% figure for corporate tax take (12 months tax revenue to Oct 23 vs 12 months to Oct 22), then the corresponding figures for individual and GST are 5.6% and 3.7% respectively - not 6.1% and 9.4% as you have stated.
I wouldn't normally say anything, but the numbers could be mistaken to have been selected to suit a certain narrative?
all tax will
Woolworths New Zealand’s profits dropped 52 per cent in the last full year, with rising costs pushing up operational costs for the grocery retailer.
The NZ arm of Australian-owned supermarket giant Woolworths still came out with $76 million in profit for the year, down from $158.4m for the same period last year.
Woolworths NZ Group owns local retailers Countdown, SuperValue and FreshChoice, and posted its New Zealand financial statements to the Companies Register on Friday for the full year to June 25.
A blurb from the corporation doesn't give all the details though. Average Joe will assume it's the prevailing inflation issues but given the nature of the business it's not the whole story. Revenue increased and there was a considerable property gain in last years results that weren't repeated. Additional finance costs on related party loans too so overall the group probably still gained. Don't believe everything you read.
It's happening now - GST down in real terms year on year. Every dataset I look at screams recession... The corporate tax take is dropping off a cliff. That's why I was not happy with David's choice of stats - cherry picking datapoints (a couple of which I can't replicate) to suit a 'govt is taking all the money's narrative. What is actually happening is a complete collapse and we have politicians in charge who are even more clueless than the last lot.
Define “the same”. The same is that we all speak English? The same is that we all have the same European culture, religions and holidays? The same is that our government department names and street signs are all in English?
Im not a fan of Maori getting special rights, but I’m pretty sure this government wants to go back in time to long before that.
They are rolling back things that should never have existed, like co-governance, like crim hugging, like separate departments based on race, like govt departments speaking a different language than the general public. These were all dumb ideas, just like low interest rates. They have made a mess, and are being unwound, just like low interest rates, won’t be seen again or your life time. The blowback from Labours racism is going to be felt for a long time. The next labour government (probably 12 years away) will be too scared to touch this topic. People have long memories. TPM are just reminding people how racist and ridiculous they really are. They have had their high water mark. It’s all downhill from here for them. Sadly once they were the party of Pita Sharples, and now they are a disorganised rabble making demands that everyone speak a dead language and give them free stuff. Sad. Ironically they are making it possible for a binding treaty referendum to pass making their whole purpose irrelevant.
Co-governance was literally the basis of the Treaty - Maori believed they would still be entitled to their sovereignty alongside and as part of crown rule. The blowback from racism and Treaty discrepancies has already been felt by Maori for a long time. In our progressive modern world we expect visitors to speak the local language, to assimilate to local customs yet our forebears did not believe this. The only reason it is a "dead" language is because it was literally beaten out. Many of the general public are happily learning and using Maori on a daily basis literally bringing it back to life. Racism was ordered in the documents that encouraged the "discovery" of New Zealand. Is it really racism to try to make up for past wrongdoings even if the pendulum might've swung too far? Sounds like the real racist here could be you?
Where's the angst for having departments based on gender and disability?
I guess they can believe what they like. But it’s not written down anywhere and it wasn’t the purpose. The main purpose was equal rights for all and protection from other Māori, granted by the crown. Nothing about partnership whatsoever. That’s the made up bit being rapidly dismantled. Let’s also address the language bit. Māori requested that it was not taught in schools and learned English themselves because they realised (quite rightly) it was the way for themselves and their children to get ahead in the modern world. They were right. You need to read up on a bit of history. The language was never beaten out of anyone. It was abandoned, and that is why it is dead.
They book a translator (AT HUGE COST) I have seen it even when a familly member speaks both, ITS A CROCK Jimbo....Medical text not written in maori and if needed a translator can be had for way less then a medical education, bloody Left ideology BUT I fully support any maori student who gets even close to entry JUST NOT A % crock of poop needs to go as many kiwi kids going to aussie for med school as they are do not have this requirement...... make me very angry
I don’t know the reason they do that, there may well be a legitimate reason for all I know. But I do know it has been the case well before the Labour Party were elected. I also know it’s only one example, hardly worth the all the crap we’ve been sold about racial division.
Lets play someone else pays......
“I have some sympathy for KiwiRail. They are tasked with the impossible. Given lofty goals but not the Central Government funding to seriously tackle what’s on their plate.
“It is difficult not to catastrophize the consequences of chronic under-investment and inaction on the renewals. We believe there’s an immediate shortfall of around $1bn which threatens to cut services in the next one to three years. If some of the funding can’t be found in the next few months, KiwiRail has warned of a growing risk that passenger services may be forced to operate on a reduced timetable,” says Cr Ponter.
While the council contributes to the maintenance of the Wellington Rail Network, delivering on the extent of investment identified as being required for the Wellington rail network should not fall on the rate payers says Cr Ponter.
$750mil to fix WGTN trains....
So WGTN rail, water, sewage pipes, roads all falling into decay....
Lucky they have such a "Talented" Mayor, who has a good grip on the task at hand. Mayor Wayne Brown is looking more competent every day on the national stage.
AKLers will need to find 225mil to run CRL each year....
I have lived in WGTN and liked the "vibe" of the City, but I have the gut feeling that it's well past it's past and probably cannot afford its own future.
I am considering a 5KW wind turbine and solar panels as a form of insurance against the inability of NZ to plan, budget for and execute critical infrastructure projects. I have decent water tanks and climate change seems to pour a richness of that onto me, 2 year old waste water system so now time to look at power security...
“AKLers will need to find 225mil to run CRL each year....” you fell for a right wing anti public transport bullshit article. Almost all of that was debt servicing, had the government paid the entire cost like they would for a motorway then the council would pay a lot less.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/era-of-low-interest-rates-is-over-s…
low interest rates over.... what could this mean?
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