A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Tuesday; immigrants rush in, retail volumes shrink, tourism recovery eases, still 11,000+ storm claims to be resolved, swaps hold, NZD rises, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
No changes today.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
None here either today.

BORDER RUSH
Population gain from migration running at more than double the previous record after reaching a net +129,000 in the year to October ( with 245,600 migrants arriving and -116,700 emigrating).

RETAIL VOLUMES SHRINK
Retail sales using electronic cards rose +2.1% in the year to October, far less than inflation's 5.6% so it is recording a volume decrease of -3.5%. Consumables were up +5.4% and holding their own, but durables were down -1.3% recording a large volume retreat. Hospo was up +5.1% but apparel down -4.7% from a year earlier. Petrol was down -2.4% but cars were up +2.1%. If there is a silver lining it is that October recovered somewhat from September.

MORE GOING, LESS COMING
The recovery in foreign tourist arrivals eased in October, from 86% of pre-pandemic levels in September, to 80%. Total arrival numbers rose just +0.5% from September, compared to an +8.4% increase in the same month in 2019, pre-pandemic. Most of the shortfall is because Chinese tourists haven't returned. Aussie levels aren't setting records either. There were 251,000 Kiwi holiday departures in October, 90% of pre-pandemic levels. Although this figure represents an eight percentage point slippage from September’s unusually strong result, October’s departures still point to a generally upward trajectory.

TEN MONTHS LATER AND STILL 11,100 CLAIMS STILL TO BE SETTLED
The Insurance Council says about three quarters of the $3.6 bln of claims for the massive weather events in January and February this year have now been paid. Ignoring Business Interruption claims (which get paid progressively), there have been 97,300 claims. 11,100 (or 11%) of these are still dragging out in the settlement process. Most are house insurance claims (8,400 still to be resolved), averaging $31,800/claim so more than $¼ bln is still hanging out there in these. Most car claims have been sorted and the ones left are smallish, under $2600 on average. Of the rest, almost 1500 Contents claims averaging almost $9000 each are still to be settled.

CRIMINAL CARTEL ALLEGED
The Commerce Commission has filed criminal charges against two construction companies and two directors for alleged bid rigging of publicly funded construction contracts, in the country’s first-ever criminal prosecution for cartel conduct. Because it is before the Courts, no more details are available. See this.

FASTER & MORE EFFECTIVE
Today, Treasury recommended adjusting the RBNZ remit, rather than legislating the new Government's desired changes. Changing the Reserve Bank's mandate could have a 'significant impact' on inflation expectations, they say.

WEAK & EVEN WEAKER
In Australia there were two sentiment surveys out. The Westpac MI consumer survey found low but improving sentiment in December as the holiday season approaches. The icon NAB business survey recorded a sharp dip in sentiment in November to its lowest level since the pandemic in early 2020.

SWAPS ON HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are little-changed today. However, the key reaction will come at the close. Our chart will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged yet again at 5.63% and still +13 bps above the OCR. The Australian 10 year bond yield is unchanged at 4.35%. The China 10 year bond rate is still down at 2.68%. And the NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -4 bps at 4.99%, while the earlier RBNZ fixing was at 4.92% which was down -3 bps today. The UST 10 year yield is now at 4.23% and down -2 bps from yesterday. The UST 2yr is now at 4.71% so that key curve inversion is now at -48 bps and little-changed.

EQUITIES UP EXCEPT THE NZX50
The NZX50 is down -0.4% in late trade today. The ASX200 is up +0.5% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened up another +0.8% in their early trade. Hong Kong is up +0.2% at its open, but Shanghai is down -0.2%. Singapore has opened its Tuesday session unchanged. The S&P500 was up +0.4% on Wall Street in Monday trade

OIL HOLDS
The crude oil price is essentially unchanged from this time yesterday, still at US$71.50/bbl in the US, and the Brent benchmark is still at US$76/bbl.

GOLD LOWER
In early Asian trade, gold is now at US$1984/oz and down -US$19 from where we were this time yesterday. Earlier in New York it closed at US$1981/oz, and earlier still in London at US$1987/oz.

NZD RISES
The Kiwi dollar is now at 61.3 USc and up +60 bps from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are little-changed at 93.3 AUc. Against the euro we are also little-changed at 56.9 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is now at 70.7.

BITCOIN DROPS
The bitcoin price has moved down to US$41,704 and a sharp -4.4% drop from where we were this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been very high at just on +/- 4.0%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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