Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.
TODAY'S MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
ASB has matched BNZ with a 4.35% one year 'special' fixed mortgage rate, and they have set a new five year 5.09% 'special' rate which is market leading. BankDirect and Sovereign have made identical moves.
TODAY'S DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
ASB cut -25 bps off its savings accounts today (but not term deposits yet). This takes its FastSaver down to 1.90% and its bonus saver (SavingsPlus) down to 3.40%
COMPARING BETTER
New Zealand's employment outlook improved in the latest Manpower survey from an index of +11 to +12 in their latest survey. That is not much improvement. In Australia they did record a noticeable improvement but was from an index that went from +4 to +7. New Zealand has improved to 11th (from 13th) in the global ranking of this survey. Australia was 20th, up from 26th. The USA was 4th (up from 5th), Japan 3rd, and China was 27th, a very big mover down from 8th.
A MINOR MISS
Manufacturing sales fell in the June 2015 quarter, Statistics New Zealand said today. Total manufacturing sales for the quarter were $23.4 bln, down nearly $1.3 billion (-5.1%) on the June 2014 quarter. That was actually an improvement from the -7.1% in the March quarter. The fall in sales is chiefly due to price falls in dairy and petroleum products. Inventories also fell. This data is not strong, but probably not weak enough to change many GDP forecasts. Since June the exchange rate has moved lower and that will boost some price-sensitive manufacturers.
LOSING ITS SHINE
The ANZ Heavy Traffic Index fell -0.6% in August. It has declined in 7 of the last 8 months, but the falls have been mild and the level is holding up. A loss of momentum is certainly now apparent, consistent with a weaker economy, but the index is not capitulating as it did in 2008.
MUCH LESS HAPPY
There are two business confidence survey out in Australia today. The highly respected NAB survey says business conditions improved in August but confidence worsened. The RoyMorgan survey says business confidence worsened a lot to its lowest level in four years.
A MINOR UPGRADE
Statistics New Zealand today corrected some consumers price index figures for the March and June 2015 quarters. As a result, the quarterly CPI change in the March 2015 year rose marginally +0.3% (from +0.1%), and the June 2015 quarter’s annual change is now +0.4% instead of +0.3.
A DIFFERENT VIEW
On the inflation front, ANZ's monthly unofficial monitoring shows it running at +2.3% (index was 1250 in August 2015, was 1222 in August 2014.) That is up from +2.1% in July.
SURPRISE SURPLUS
China as reported a monster trade surplus in August - but it might not be quite a positive as it first seems. The surplus was US$60.2 bln compared with US$43 bln in July. But exports fell -5.5% while imports fell -13.8%. Some of that fall in imports will be related to the sharp fall in oil prices.
WHOLESALE RATES UNCHANGED
Swap rates were higher today, up +2 bp across all terms. The 90 day bank bill rate went down by -1 bps again to 2.87%. These changes came without the influence of the core Wall Street markets which are on holiday today.
NZ DOLLAR SLIPS
Markets are very quiet again today including the currency markets. The NZD is still at 62.8 USc, at 90.2 AUc and 56.2 euro cents. The TWI-5 is still at 67.6. Check our real-time charts here.
You can now see an animation of this chart. Click on it, or click here.
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