Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No rate changes were announced today - so far, at least.
DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
No changes here either.
"HORRIBLE" VOLUME FALL
"April was a horrible month for house sales activity, with sales volumes falling -7.5% from March in seasonally adjusted terms and plunging -32% from April last year. The latter fall is amplified by the timing of Easter, which was in March last year, and thus didn’t negatively affect activity in April 2016. But even taking March and April sales together shows that volumes across the two months were -21% down from a year earlier – the biggest annual decline since late 2010." - Infometrics
2.15%, PLUS INFLATION
Strong demand has returned to the Treasury's latest linker tender after a surprisingly weak April tender. The $100 mln September 2035 Government inflation-linked tender brought a coverage ratio of 4.7 times. But the weighted average yield virtually unchanged at 2.15%. Interestingly only seven bidders out of 41 won anything however.
+100,000 IN A YEAR
Data released by Statistics NZ today shows that our population to March 2017 grew by +100,000 to 4,761,600. That is growth of +2.145% in a year. And it is speeding up; the growth in the 90 days from January 1 to March 31 2017 was +28,100, the fastest quaterly growth ever recorded.
FROM FIRST TO FOURTH MOST POPULAR
Meanwhile in Australia, data out there shows fewer and fewer Kiwis are migrating there. In the year to March 2017 the number was sharply down +9,590. Five years earlier it was 35,680 in that year. Kiwi's are down the list a long way now, out-paced by arrivals into the Lucky Country from Iraq of 9,780 in the year to March 2017, from China of +17,970, and from India of +22,730.
DOWN BUT NOT OUT
New Zealand's Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) remained strong in April. It chimed in with a seasonally adjusted 56.8, from 58.0 in March – making the low point back in January, of 53.2, seem but a distant concern.
CORPORATE WELFARE GROWS
Budget 2017 will see $303.9 mln allocated to support the continuation of the New Zealand screen industry production grants, both globally and domestically, say Economic Development Minister Simon Bridges and Arts, Culture and Heritage Minister Maggie Barry. This includes $222 mln over four years and $18 mln in 2016/17 for the International Screen Production Grant to bring international productions to New Zealand. Up to $63.9 mln over four years remains available to ensure the domestic component of the grant continues.
WHOLESALE RATES DROP AGAIN
Local swap rates bear-flattened again today. They down another -3 bps for two years, down another -4 bps for five years, and down another -4 bps for ten years. The 90 day bank bill rate however is unchanged at 1.98%.
NZ DOLLAR HOLDS
The NZD is at about the same level it was at this time yesterday at 68.4 USc, giving no more ground after yesterday's surprisingly dovish RBNZ review. On the crosses we are at 92.6 AUc, and 62.9 euro cents. The TWI-5 is still at 73.5.
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12 Comments
Sell side chatter?
It’s not making headlines yet, but wages in Japan are rising the fastest in decades, in a shift that’s poised to divide the nation’s companies -- and their stocks -- into winners and losers, according to Morgan Stanley.
The firm expects wage growth to accelerate to 2.8 percent by the end of next year, with higher hourly earnings canceling out fewer working hours and slower employment growth. While wage reflation means companies have to pay more in salaries, it also leads to stronger demand and revenue gains.
Inflation, spurred by wages, will be “the last piece of the jigsaw puzzle to fall into place” for Japan’s economy, Jonathan Garner, chief Asia and emerging-market equity strategist at Morgan Stanley Asia Ltd. in Hong Kong, said in a May 5 phone interview.
Compensation levels are already climbing, with a broad gauge showing a 2.2 percent jump in 2016 that followed two years of near-2 percent gains -- the strongest trend since the 1990s. Hourly pay rates have yet to show that strength, as seen in a release on Tuesday showing a 0.4 percent drop in March. [my emphasis] Read more
Mark a win for Australia’s newest short seller.
Quintis Ltd., first targeted in a scathing piece of research from Glaucus Research Group in March, was the worst performer on the Australian All Ordinaries index over the past five days. It tumbled 65 percent in Sydney trading this week as of 2:53 p.m. on Friday after telling shareholders for the first time that it had lost a contract to supply sandalwood oil to a unit of Nestle SA back in December. The slump intensified Friday as two credit ratings agencies downgraded its debt rating. Read more
Is ASX going to need SEC type regulation to prohibit accumulated short sales greater than the declared outstanding share float?
The government is giving handouts to corporates some of who dont pay any tax or pay the lowest they can get away with. When it comes to adjusting income thresholds for individual tax they act coy and have a song and dance about balancing the books and having a surplus. This feels like stealing from Peter to pay Pan. People are struggling to make ends meets and corporate handouts get bigger instead of relief for families. Glad to see from the Act Party called them out on this, will be interesting to see how S Joyce responds in the budget.
In short....
It May,
It May not.
It is May, it may turn in June,
It is a huge drop in the Ocean. A lot fell today, precipitating a deluge of falls.
It is a climate denied by many, it cannot be claimed as perfect, it may sink, or swim.
The ASX is at the peak of its solutions, as are the short Sellers, Peter I think his name was.
Died young, no longevity.
The FBI is at a loss, they have no idea which way to Head. Trump is sure to pick an idiot, he always does.
The long and the short of it is, no one has any idea of what the future may bring and that includes 4 Banks I talked to today, who are all working on my interest, not theirs.
I shall not name them, in short, it does not pay. If they did, I would not go short, I would go long.
Avoiding the Issue, is in short, not worth the paper it used to be printed on. Fox is going tails up, CNN is merging, they are all divided.
They said I was lucky to have avoided the stupidity of the World, I said I know, I was just guessing.
They all suggested a short and wide spread and a soft sell and a big dipper is in the offing.
The derivatives are worthless, houses are worth more, we are divided here, Interest is waxing and waning, dividends will be distributed, but do not Bank on it.
Closed over the weekend...Friday...in short.
Hi AndrewJ,
Congratulations on the First Grandchild. Well worth the trip.
My brood have no desires in that regard.
Tesco....not sure I can stomach that....after s,s,s,s, surfeit of Morrison's Donuts...
The beer... well..I never say NO......to a real ale...or a Guinness.
Maybe we can Work (There is that 4 letter word , I swore I would never use again)....something out...even if I have to Alter my plans.
I have quite a few commitments...in UK & then France.....but it would be a pleasure to meet. up..
If we can plan something....between Cornwall and London.....that suits.
There are a number of factors, but if not in UK.....I will certainly drink to the Family's "Good Health"
Did we miss this: US and China sign trade agreement
BBC article: http://www.bbc.com/news/business-39894119
The US and China have reached a 10-point trade deal that opens the Chinese market to US credit rating agencies and credit card companies.
Under the deal, China will also lift its ban on US beef imports and accept US shipments of liquefied natural gas.
In return, Chinese cooked chicken will be allowed into the US market and Chinese banks can enter the US market.
Mr Trump has certainly done a 360 move there; Allowing Chinese banks can enter the US market. I don't think the Trumpsters are going to like that.
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