Here's our summary of key events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news that while the US is abandoning its trade relationships, others are stepping up to broaden theirs.
Firstly, the American economy created more jobs than expected in June, but steady wage gains pointed to moderate inflation pressures that should keep the Federal Reserve on a path of gradual interest rate increases this year. The jobs data had higher hiring rates in manufacturing, the participation rate was up +0.2% to (a low) 62.9% and average weekly earnings rose +2.7%. But even though more people are joining the workforce, they are not all finding work, yet. Their jobless rate rose to 4.0%.
In Canada, they reported pretty much the same thing; employment growing better than forecast, a rising participation rate, wages rising at +3.5%, ... and a higher jobless rate. The Bank of Canada is now expected to hike rates there soon.
But the trade wars officially got underway on Saturday. It was tit-for-tat with between the US and China, as it is between the US and Canada, and the US and many others - virtually everyone.
One practical outcome is that some commodity prices are falling substantially. Copper is down now more than -US$1,000/tonne since the first week in June as an example, a -14% drop in 4 weeks. But that just takes prices back to where they were this time last year such has been the run-up in the meantime. Aluminium has fallen -20% in 90 days, but again, that is off an unusual high and just reverting to more usual pricing.
Meanwhile, European member states have given the go-ahead for a free trade deal with Japan, the world's third-largest economy. Brussels said the agreement was sending "a very powerful signal against protectionism." If they can pull it off, it will cover about one third of global trade involving about 600 mln people.
Japan itself has now ratified the TPP. Japan is a key player in the multilateral free trade community. New Zealand is on track to do so too, by the end of 2018.
The UST 10yr yield is down -2 bps at 2.82% in a slip after Wall Street closed last week. And the US 2-10 rate curve keeps on shrinking as investors grow increasingly wary of the future and is now down to just +28 bps, and its lowest since 2007. The Chinese 10yr is at 3.54% (up +2 bps) while the New Zealand equivalent is now at 2.84%, up +3 bps.
Gold is unchanged at US$1,255/oz.
US oil prices are holding at just under US$74/bbl. The Brent benchmark is now just over US$77/bbl. The US rig count has risen a few this week.
The Kiwi dollar starts today a firmer at 68.4 USc which is more than +½c up from where we left it on Friday and its highest in ten days. On the cross rates we are also higher at 92.1 AUc and at 58.2 euro cents. That puts the TWI-5 at 71.5.
Bitcoin is now at US$6,747 which is up more than +4% from this time on Friday.
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74 Comments
IRD and MBIE employees walking off for 2 hours today. From where I stand, anaemic wage growth is a global phenomenon but housing cost inflation makes a few of us more impatient than others; this isn’t the first set of industrial actions this season and won’t be the last either.
FYI Unless you write code for FANG companies or swap securities with other financiers on Wall Street, we are all on the same rundown boat in terms of salaries.
https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/ird-and-mbie-workers-set-st…
Can't see they have judged this one that well. Nurses have a special place in our hearts that IRD and MBIE just don't have. So waiting for the nurses to settle and going for a me too deal would make more political sense, I would have thought.
Will there be a open discussion on exactly what they actually really earn and do, with real figures so we can all judge for ourselves independently? I doubt it.
Whilst this is always heavily biassed towards whoever is paying for it, some figures on comparative pay with equivalent private sector jobs would also be good. If there is, some recognition of the conflicted interests behind it would also be helpful. Again, I doubt we will get this, and if we do if would likely be presented as conspiracy theory, rather than the natural tendency of people to see what they want to see when analysing data.
I don't understand why nurses don't have pay parity with teachers at the very least. They are required to do a degree and have specialist knowledge, which they must update their entire career, it's high stress job with antisocial hours and peoples lives are at stake. And yet teachers get paid more? Makes no sense to me.
Pay teachers well, by all means, but don't make nurses fight to be paid a fair wage.
The Gubmint has raised public-sector wage expectations so far that no-one is gonna back down now, especially since the Hon FM is proclaiming the latest surplus from the bully pulpit.
The nurses may have settled, but there's a long queue behind 'em:
- Teachers - started off at 16% but I doubt that will last
- Tertiary lecturers, admin staff and ancillaries - will be watching the Teachers and waiting...
- This will also bleed out into the PTE's, ITO's etc. who will have a hard job keeping a lid on salaries, especially if Education is one of the Lucky Sectors to be dragged back to Universal Collective Bargaining (at the point of a Regulation...)
- Police have kept very quiet - watch, wait then pounce....
- Ditto Defence, MPI, MSD, and the rest of the departments that need professional, qualified staff and/or feel themselves hard done by as they gaze over the fence at Them As Wot Are In a Greener Paddock.
There's potential in this list to make a Mighty Mess of that May Budget.....
I'd like to put forward an observation - I have worked at senior management level at a DHB and in other Government Departments and I wonder that across NZ and possibly the western world, if there is a level of class or elitism that has developed across our society based on the level one works at. Managers seem to get the first dibs on any pot and what is left gets divvied up for the workers. But it is usually the workers who generate the real value. In the DHB over the years a militant Doctors union and greedy Doctors fleeced DHB budgets, striking regularly and threatening to go over seas. Everyone was afraid they would, but there were always only a limited number of vacancies overseas and there are always Doctors who wanted to come to NZ. DHB managers get a very good income, leaving only meagre dregs for the nurses. Both of these are out of step with other comparable roles in NZ. Look also to the discussion of CEO pay scales and whether or not they are worth it.
There are many roles besides nurses and teachers that are under valued, such as Corrections officers. But make no mistake, their managers get good money! There seems to be a expectation that Unions will stand up for workers, but many managers use a divide and conquer attitude, pushing people onto IEAs and then undermining their negotiating ability. This only ensures the equity gap gets wider. Another way the "free market" has undermined economies.
The problem as I see it is, central banks have not created the growth they promised, we got lots of debt and extreme asset valuations, along with the lowest interest rates for 5000 years.
Things are far to complex, there is a book by M Mitchell Waldrop called complexity. He liked to pass out a paper called "how complex systems fail", bullet point 6, Catastrophe is always just around the corner.
A car key is simple A car is complicated, a car in Traffic is complex. ( read Flash boys by Michael Lewis)
In the US since 2010, the S&P index is up %65, and yet trading volume is down 50 percent. Before 2010 67% of US households owned shares by 2013 less than %52 did.
The oil price went from something like, $80 to $140 and back to $30, on a %3 change in output.
Simplicity versus complication? The more complicated any element is the more likely it is to fail as it compounds itself into Murphy’s law. Having said that manned moon shots probably as complicated as you can get, and only one near miss incident. But if complexity ends up getting out of balance? Anything out of balance will inevitably fall over.
"Officials believe right now the economy is “very strong” and that demands the same “rate hike” trajectory. The futures curve is betting there is a good chance they are wrong about that and at some unknown point they’ll have to turn around and face their own mistakes yet again."
http://www.alhambrapartners.com/2018/07/06/good-reason-to-fear-the-futu…
I see we are banning journalists that have opinions not shared by our elites from entering NZ. Some of the concerns raised by such persons will also be shared by many residents here. There certainly are some issues that concern me; others that I do not agree with but attempts to stifle a learning curve is wrong. Fortunately, Youtube has many truly educational speakers. Of course one must be careful to glean facts from propaganda.
They cancelled their trip, they were not banned from entering NZ. Auckland council refused to rent them a venue for their white supremacist ranting and raving.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/auckland/105302179/council-agency-cancels-booki…
but if you believe in free speech you have to put up with the fact some people may feel insulted. Would Goff do the same to a Islamist from Saudi?
It's not a civil servants job to tell us who we can listen to, it's a slippery slope, if you believe in free speech then you should practice it.
I couldn't think of a worse way to fight extremism than the way the UK government has handled the Tommy Robinson case.
I think the difference was that the council weren't aware to whom the venue had been rented, they're well within their rights to refuse to rent a location to someone.
Tommy Robinson is an absolute clown, who had multiple warnings before falling foul of contempt of court regulations - https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/05/29/edl-founder-jailed-contempt… You can try and make him a martyr all you want, fact is the guy's an absolute buffoon.
It was the efforts of Tommy Robinson that brought the issue of Pakistani paedophile gangs grooming British children for sexual molestation to the attention of the British public. While British authorities, police and mainstream media ignored what was happening for decades due to cowardice and stupid political correctness. And out of all this all you worry about is Robinson technically breaking a law. Utterly pathetic.
Not at all, I worry that you see him as some sort of martyr, when clearly he's not.
It was not the efforts of Tommy Robinson that brought the issue to the attention of the British public, multiple people did that from the whole range of the political compass, including this lady https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/sara-rowbotham-rochdale-scandal-w…
I'm not here to defend the indefensible, however, the foundation of western judiciary is a fair trial, irrespective of the crimes committed.
By denying people a fair trial he causes more issues than he's trying to solve. Tommy Robinson's actions as mentioned in the contempt of court case could well have prevented this from happening - which then opens up appeal avenues for the guilty - he had been warned and had a suspended sentence for contempt of court, then did it again, for what gain other than the Tommy Robinson EDL sideshow? The man is a clown.
The press is trying to vilify Tommy Robinson, what you need to understand is, if it hadn't been Robinson it would have been someone else. He has huge support in the community, he will continue to gain support as the economy slows and it's easy to blame problems on immigrants, if not him then someone else will fill his shoes.
I haven't said anything different to that statement, I'm saying he's not some sort of free speech martyr, what does Tommy Robinson stand for anyway?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jDzOckoEJmE
Personally I think all religions are backward, some more than others.
Tommy Robinson is no longer connected with the English Defence League because he was concerned that Fascist elements were infiltrating it. And yes, he broke the law but placing hin in prison where he is at risk of murder from islamic extremists is beyond the pale. He is obviously passionate about his cause and rightly so but that surely does not make him a clown. Methinks the kettle is calling the pot black.
And here a British judge himself does the very same thing that Tommy did. I bet they will not jail him.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rk8b_XqI_NM. Utter hypocrisy.
Actually the stupid British authorities are making Tommy Robinson a martyr.
I posted this up last time he was discussed, but saying he is at risk of murder in prison is somewhat exaggerating. The stories about him being moved to a dangerous prison was a straight-up lie by his supporters.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/no-tommy-robinson-hasnt-been-127…
I haven't seen any evidence that he is in solitary confinement. And yes, I'd believe the British press over Infowars any day. He will be desperate to keep the story rolling while he serves his term and he has every incentive to exaggerate. It already appears that true believers won't go searching to verify claims and will ignore any contrary evidence so there's very little risk if they make things up.
The problem is that so many people don't believe the MSM anymore. A lot of damage was done when they hacked victims phones in the UK .
I'm watching the latest UK poisoning with interest, there has been speculation that the latest couple were spotted in the original CTV of the Skiprals just before their poisoning.
The only way to win is always to tell the truth, if history judges you as a fibber, then why should we believe you today? Russia knows this and it's why RT.com is going from strength to strength.
Is Russian military might really that good. My mates in the UK tell me it's, super high tech, super scary.
Why should the USA fund NATO to such a degree, why does the USA still have so many troops in Germany?
The only way to get a Russian point of view is either thesaker or RT.com
https://www.rt.com/news/431760-russia-six-advanced-weapons/
Drudge is huge in the States
https://drudgereport.com
dairy news thats real
http://econbrowser.com/archives/2018/07/a-clear-and-present-danger-the-…
and good old nutty Zerohedge
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-07-08/woman-exposed-novichok-nerve-…
I find your comments slightly ironic given the Russians are at the forefront of putting out conflicting truths in order to confuse the public, leading to people doubting everything. This is a deliberate technique, throw out so many different stories and attack all facts until you can deny anything from invading a neighbouring country, a chemical weapon attack, or an assassination attempt.
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/arts/after-a-week-of-russian-propaganda-i-…
I agree the phone hacking scandal was destructive, and it's extremely annoying that people like Piers Morgan seem to have gotten away with it and somehow remain public figures. Certainly the UK tabloids are not above making things up, but I believe sites like the BBC and the Guardian can reasonably be assumed to tell the truth in most cases.
The UK threw a few stories out like the 'weapons of mass destruction'. Tony Blair stacked the BBC with his own men. Russians can probably build high tech well, after all the HFT banks in the USA are stacked with Russians writing code.
https://www.salon.com/2017/06/18/russian-students-dominate-at-the-compu…
Where's this reported? I've googled it and seen the sources that are proclaiming this to be true, I'll go with the British press over Infowars everyday of the week. According to his lawyer he's at risk of being attacked, and is currently appealing against his sentence https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-leeds-44727888
You are sounding more and more like a conspiratard by the day Andrewj.
And for the record... very few people in the UK ever believed Blair's alleged WMD's and there were mass public protests and plenty of anti-Blair MSM coverage. You are no more presenting the "truth" than anyone else. You are just exposing your bias.
I actually try not to have a bias, it's getting harder. Im not pro Russian, although I admit I like Russian history. I see the UK as a tragedy unfolding in front of our eyes, truth be told.
I suspect the USA is broke but happy to be convinced otherwise.
I think Saudi is the centre of a lot of evil, please feel free to change my mind. 9/11 was an terrible day, but I still don't understand why the USA's knee jerk reaction was to invade Iraq, who wasn't involved and not face off with Saudi.
Libya is something that confuses me, i don't know why the West encouraged the Arab spring, perhaps poor intelligence. It's left Europe with a bit of a headache.
I don't know why the West is against Iran I would have thought Shite Muslims especially Persians would have more in common with us.
I don't know why the USA dropped more bombs on Cambodia than they dropped in WW2, I don't know why they had to bomb Nth Korea back to the dark ages, enlighten me. Syria has a leader who was an eye doctor in the UK and whose wife was born in London, yet they are world enemy number one, that just doesn't make sense to me. When the French/ British created Syria, Lebanon was included,there was actually a christian majority and these people have been living peacefully together for generations.
I think it's time we all stood and demanded truth from our governments, I think it's now the only way forward.
Im from a Scottish background very egalitarian , which comes with a natural cynicism, over the years I've learnt not to judge.
One of the people I used to read is José Martí.
https://www.biography.com/people/josé-mart%C3%AD-20703847
One of his poems was made into a song
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FiQUBm17phs
https://lyricstranslate.com/en/guantanamera-guantanamera.html-0
Guantanamera
Versions: #1#2
I'm an honest man
From where the palm trees grow
I'm an honest man
From where the palm trees grow
And before I die I want
to let my verses out of my soul
Chorus:
Guantanamera
Guajira Guantanamera*
Guantanamera
Guajira Guantanamera
My verse is clear green
And burning red
My verse is clear green
And burning red
My verse is a wounded deer
That seeks refuge in the mountain
Chorus
I cultivate a white rose
In June as in January
I cultivate a white rose
In June as in January
For a true friend
Who gives me his honest hand
Chorus
And for the cruel one that tears away from me
The heart with which I live
And for the cruel one that tears away from me
The heart with which I live
I cultivate neither thistles nor nettles
I cultivate the white rose
Chorus
With the poor people of the earth
I want to make my destiny
With the poor people of the earth
I want to make my destiny
The mountain stream
Pleases me more than the ocean
*Guajira is an expression referring to to a Cuban peasant girl; Guantanamera refers to a woman from Guantánamo
I think part of your bias is that you believe that somehow governments understand the full scale of human complexity and social change and that they have everything planned out. They don't. If they did...history would tell a very different tale.
Not everything is a cunning government conspiracy. Many governments aren't even very cunning, or their cunning has failed them entirely.
There is no confusion whatsoever for me, as to why someone born in London could become Syrian enemy number one. No government conspiracy required on that one either, human behaviour has demonstrated such conversions of sentiment innumerable times. Although, without doubt governments behave in dishonest and manipulative ways, its the human way after all.
but governments need to step up when commercial interests become too powerful and connected. We have had lots of mergers and acquisitions over the years, banking, retail, food production, media, electricity and on. Every time we lose some commercial freedom, now when commercial interests are far to connected to government how do we get that choice back?
So yes I do understand that economies can be complex and governments cumbersome but they also should not be closing opportunities or restricting choices, the solutions are often relatively simple.
People need hope and the opportunity for a better future, we should be a nation of small enterprises, not a lot of government workers, lots on welfare, with some big guy's playing games at the top, paying little or no tax, thats who we need protecting from.
I have no idea how that comment relates to mine at all. I never said anything remotely to suggest a contrary point to the above. Indeed, I referred to nothing above that you have replied to whatsoever. You seem to be having the conversation your wish to have irrelevant to my responses.
you said
"I think part of your bias is that you believe that somehow governments understand the full scale of human complexity and social change and that they have everything planned out."
I said
I do understand that economies can be complex and governments cumbersome but they also should not be closing opportunities or restricting choices, the solutions are often relatively simple.
Wait what? Take a step back a moment. I didn't mention the economy.
You are all over the comments for this article talking about Russia, freedom of speech, multiculturalism, conspiracies, hate speech, Iran, Iraq, Syria, the UK etc etc. And some how you decided that I was referring to your bias in reference to governments and economies?
Your comments in this article are coming across to me as if you have drunk the alt-media kool-aid.
Not that I don't value alt-media in an overall mix of sources to try and find something like a remotely balanced reflection but you are making a lot of conspiracy-esque comments that smack of heavy alt-media brain washing, that is the bias I am referring to.
Im no fan of Robinson but what you appear have is an opinion. In reality Tommy Robinson in very clever, he did well at school and was fast tracked, whatever he is it's not a fool. He ended up fighting against male rooming gangs and made the government appear to many, to take the other side. Perhaps you also think Stalin, Hitler and Mao were buffoons?
I hope Goff would do the same to an islamic hate preacher. And no, you don't have to put up with it, it just has to be not a criminal offence. There is no right of being rented a venue if that venue is worried about being trashed by protesters (or supporters) of your hate speech. Nor is there any right that I have to stand by quitely and let you talk BS. I'm free to shout you down and generally heckle you.
perhaps multi-culturalism doesn't look anything like we were told it would.
https://www.amazon.com/Strange-Death-Europe-Immigration-Identity/dp/147…
So this is "acceptable" free speech
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/105323849/greens-coleader-mar…
Everyone seems to be engaging in "outrage porn" these days - entitlement from the left and the right. Is this a free speech issue or entry into NZ issue.
https://www.radionz.co.nz/news/on-the-inside/361301/hate-speech-more-th…
Re providing a link. The problem is where to start. Here is one that is now a little outdated yet is is very revealing. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_sbT3_9dJY4. On other subjects there are many channels worth exploring. Understanding issues related to European migration and or world over-population problems should also concern NZ. Where Europe (and Canada) have gone, we may also go. This provides a very balanced interview with an Australian. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o6tuQoXhOPQ Then there are pundits such as Jordan Peterson, Sam Harris, Douglas Murray. All provide insights into possible problems that our own media is too politically correct to permit real understandings of in our mainstream population.
Podcasts is the place to be informed now, intelligent free speech - Sam Harris, Joe Rogan, Jordan Peterson, Bloomberg Finance, Macrovoices, DFA to name a few.
Shuffling between these a zilliion times better than msm.
Further suggestions welcome...always looking for more to add..
A woman poisoned by a military-grade nerve agent in southwest England dies, eight days after police think she touched a contaminated item that has not been found.
https://apnews.com/d091144aa94e488489d68440f4ca3b5f/Police-open-murder-…
4 days of riots in France
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-07-07/large-scale-riots-continue-fr…
David Goldman, better connected in Asia than most, notes that China is gonna exercise Patience while Preparing. They look at the long view....
In the same vein, Pepe Escobar notes the primacy of 'Made in China 2025 and BRI and incidentally, reinforces that it is a slow and perhaps inexorable realignment of the stars: one of many quotable bits:
President Xi Jinping’s Chinese Dream mantra, also billed as “the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation”, is strictly linked not only to Made in China 2025, internally, but also, externally, to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the organizing concept of Chinese foreign policy for the foreseeable future. And both Made in China 2025 and BRI are absolutely non-negotiable.
"Call for judicial review of Auckland Council agency's blocking of far-right speakers."
https://www.stuff.co.nz/auckland/105349668/call-for-judicial-review-of-….
I do wish they wouldn't call Lauren Southern and Stefan Molyneux "far right". The fact is modern "conservatives" by 1930's standards are practically Bolsheviks so anyone who is a true conservative nowadays is labelled as "far right".
These two promote a very mild form of conservatism that rejects identity politics. See their names listed under Wikipedia's article on the Alt-lite.
Denying them a venue is of course more of a worry because of this as it is shocking how low the censorship bar is getting. Goff is a completely pathetic weakling and has earned my derision forevermore for making this decision. He did this for no other reason than because he would rather be bullied and not have any trouble.
It is also very similar to the Chinese excuse for oppression and censorship which is because it produces "harmony".
Just because you determine that the conservatives indulged in repression and censorship doesn't mean it's okay for the PC brigade to do it now. Or is the lesson, if we don't suppress them now then they will suppress us in the future? Perhaps it is.
You can see right here in the comments sections of Interest.co that it is the lefties who consistently call for the banning of posters.
We have gotten out from under conservatism, it should come as no surprise we do not want to go back. Those two were not banned, you can find them anywhere on the internet and if they booked a private venue they can knock themselves out with their backward looking views. But best they don't expect there not to be any kick back, however.
The trouble with these excrement stirrers is they cater to the basest of human nature, such as racism, homophobia and women in control of their own lives. I find it utterly hilarious they jump up and down about Muslims and Muslim countries and their method governance, then try to do the exact same only in the name of Christianity.
I find conservatism, wherever it is, and that is everywhere, in communist China, in Muslim run countries, everywhere, it is not the preserve of old, white males, but the common thread in it is old and male, to be just about the worst of the entire political spectrum. Wisdom in age is good, I don't see it in conservatism.
Didge, you will enjoy this absurd article, so full of contradiction and inconsistency:
Why there are so many $2 shops in New Zealand
The comments are great.
I'm sure the "Distinguished Professor Paul Spoonley" who states, Many employers still do not see immigrants as a preferred source of labour, would have no trouble finding a council venue to spout his subversion.
The article is 100% correct in my experience. NZers dont want to employ (non-white) immigrants, and we are racist. Anecdote, from years ago. Working in a gas station and the owner was advertising for a new staff member, and i was told to take names and numbers while the owner went out to run errands.. but if the name was Singh or Patel, or they had an accent 'tell them the job has been filled already'. Sad but true.
Current employer is far less racsit, last 4 hires are all immigrants , one British, one Indian, two ethnic Chinese, but these are all highly skilled (all have at least masters level quals IiRC)
Well gas stations certainly appear to have taken Spoonley's advice.
I thought this, from the article, was interesting:
Kutty, who migrated from India 20 years ago, gives cultural workshops to companies and the Western Institute of Technology to help bridge the gap.
"Culturally, work ethics are very different. Both sides have to integrate and accept the communication and understanding of how things work."
So here we have it from the horse's mouth so to speak, work ethics are very different..both sides have to integrate. Something to ponder indeed.
That doesn't means what you seem to be implying.. quite the opposite in my experience. Not sure if its a cultural thing as such, or just because the immigrants are the ones that bothered getting off their backsides and doing something so are self selecting the harder workers. Might be the same reasons Kiwis in the UK are seen as hard workers and good employees.. the lazy ones never get to the UK.
The statement needs to be fleshed out to determine exactly what it means.
Different industries probably have different experiences.
Sometimes locals can be a bit hopeless. The Spanish in South America found the locals to be unsuitable for extracting gold and silver from the Andes and felt compelled to import labour. Things probably haven't fundamentally changed much.
We are no doubt in a constant of flux and transition amplified by ease of migration and technology. Logically we must be moving to either a better or worse place, certainly not the same place. Some people have noticed things are getting better while others have noticed it's getting worse. Depends on your point of view.
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