Here's our summary of key events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news we no longer worry analysts about our household deleveraging risk.
Firstly in the US however, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation hit its target of 2% in September. In fact, both the overall measure, and the core without-food-or-energy measure both hit that target, a rare double,
In China, their equity markets closed down sharply yesterday yet again, down -2.2% and making the cumulative fall more than -20% and moving into a bear market.
China is reported to be mulling a halving of its taxes on new cars as a way of stimulating their sagging economy.
And staying in China, it is clear now that authorities are starting to hard-target individuals who are avoiding their currency control limits. It had been a porous restraint essentially enforced on companies up until now. But the limits have gotten teeth for individuals who are trying to move funds out of the country.
In Germany, Angela Merkel has quit from a key party position, probably signaling that her time as German Chancellor is about to end.
Investment banker Morgan Stanley has released a new report calculating a Household Deleveraging Risk Indicator for ten developed countries, one of them New Zealand. That identifies modest risks for us, but high ones for Australia and Canada, as well as Sweden and Norway. The score for New Zealand is benign, while that for chart-topping Australia is a serious concern to these analysts. We struggle with structural vulnerabilities but are ok on the other stress indicators that others are facing.
In London, 3 month LIBOR has reached 2.5% which is its highest level in a decade. It is a key wholesale rate that has started climbing again in the past six weeks. It is a market shift our wholesale rates won't be able to avoid in the intermediate term.
The UST 10yr yield has turned back up a little and now at 3.10%. But their 2-10 curve is still at just +27 bps. The Aussie Govt 10yr is at 2.58% (down -1 bp), the China Govt 10yr is at 3.54% and also down -1 bp, while the NZ Govt 10 yr is at 2.55% and down -2 bps.
Gold is at US$1,225/oz a fall of -US$8/oz.
US oil prices are a little softer today at just under US$67.50/bbl. But the Brent benchmark is still at US$77.50/bbl. Russia has said it will keep its deliveries high in the immediate future.
The Kiwi dollar is starting today little-changed at 65.3 USc. On the cross rates we are at 92.4 AUc, and at 57.3 euro cents. That puts the TWI-5 at 69.8.
Bitcoin has actually moved today, its first non-trivial change in ten days. This time it is a drop to US$6,291, a -2.0% fall. This rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.
This chart is animated here.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
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46 Comments
I talk about this theory occasionally. It has predictive value with how people will behave in a given situation. Plays a part in economics that is for sure, and other aspects of society at large.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12…
I've been giving and taking this test since the 90s. The results undoubtedly change over time as experience and life events interact with temperament. Psychometric testing has been done in HR and recruitment worldwide for decades... and yet here is Nanny Herald presenting this like its news and with a sensationalised headline "mind hacking".
The Herald is so so lame, it hurts my brain.
Totally agree about the Herald, it is a pretty lame story. Yes there are plenty of other tests, just as there are plenty of other attributes to measure. Your MBTI type won't change over time though, you are born with it. The test result is only a guide, not definitive. I will work anyones type out if I spend enough time with them, and more quickly if I can ask them questions. Easier with age also, the preferences show up in past decisions. The key is that each attribute is on a continuum, you are either an introvert or an extrovert but can be mildly or extremely expressed. This allows for infinite variation. I don't have data to support me theory on this, but I suspect a bell curve distribution in each attribute.
Your personality type absolutely can and is likely to change with time. This is the main criticism with Myers Briggs... that and the fact that it is based on Jungian theory, which is considered fringe woo woo by many serious psychologists.
Trauma, major life events, therapy etc can all quite radically affect how we interact with the world and how we perceive our own wants and needs. For instance, some people are not self reflective or able to even identify what motivates them if they have deep trauma or have perhaps developed a particular coping mechanism in response to a particular trauma or experience, will behave different in social situations than they might have otherwise, this will then reinforce what they believe they are comfortable with. I have seen many individuals M-B result change over the years. It's not to say that the test isn't thoroughly interesting, but it isn't immutable and many peoples results do change over time. The change of result over time is very interesting in itself.
I have been working on this stuff for about 15 years and disagree about a change in type. I knew what my kids were, and still are. I know what all my relatives are, people I have had time to know. I think we may be talking different things though. Sure a person changes in response to life events, heck I know that better than most now. But those events didn't change my underlying preferences, which is what MBTI is all about. Conditioning can cause people to behave contrary to their preference, but it won't change the preference. It won't change natural abilities either. There is simply no way a Thinking person will become a feeler, or a Sensing person become Intuitive, they are hard wired for it. I agree some, actually a lot. of people are not self reflective, so won't change at all. Those that are can learn to moderate the extremes, or simply explore other aspects of their personality.
The only instance I have come across of what appeared to be a change in preference was from someone that underwent a sex change operation. Someone that was very untidy suddenly become a very tidy and organised person, which isn't necessarily a clear change from Perceiving to Judging. It didn't change their thinking ability either, they were/are an engineer.
Something I would love to do some research on is into mental illness and personality disorder in relation to the different types. I suspect there is a correlation to what you may crudely call the negative aspect of an MBTI type. Say for instance bi-polar might be prevalent in sanguine and melancholy types whereas uni-polar more common in choleric or phlegmatic types.
BTW I would never use MBTI in isolation.
A sensing person absolutely can become a thinking person post-trauma and vice versa. There are incredible variations in child hood experience, grooming, abuse, parenting that is tantamount to brain washing... and then the fall out and aftermath of that.
For instance, someone who is abused as a child, who by nature would have been a sensing person by nature, can develop hyper rationalism to protect from the emotional pain and trauma, and only much later in life, when they are safe, possibly after treatment and therapy, will they be able to bring down those coping mechanisms and find their "sensing" self. It is very common to be traumatised or groomed to the extent that you can't even admit to yourself or even be aware of what your preferences truly are (and therefore would test as a thinking person and actually believe that is their preference).
If this wasn't the case, you wouldn't have the scenario where grown adults can finally admit they are gay, or remember childhood trauma? Human beings are capable of incredible feats of repression and denial. Which makes any test only as valid as a persons psychological level of self awareness. Even being raised in an extremely religious household can affect the outcome of something like a psychometric test because you may be brain washed from a young age to deny certain traits and predispositions. Myers Briggs was developed well before understanding of trauma and decades of research was able to demonstrate how this greatly impacts on human psychology and neurology.
If for some reason you are lucky enough to have supportive parents and an uncomplicated childhood, then such tests may very well give a consistent result over a life span, but I have seen much evidence to the contrary in my own career working with trauma and abuse (and I say this as someone who worked and trained in this field to postgraduate level).
I will take it from your comment that you mean "Feeling" when you say "Sensing". I see what you are saying, but I still think you are describing conditioning, rather than a change of their underlying attribute. They have been pushed into survival mode, sadly some don't. The test would be the work they do, or more importantly the work that would show up their natural genius. The might act rational, but I doubt they would make a great talent in a profession that requires outcomes related to thinking. Not to say they would not be adequate in those professions, I have come across a few ENFP's that were accountants. But importantly they got out of accounting as soon as they could, or in the one instance became a CFO by using their team ability to take good ISTJ's with them.
When I instruct someone on the MBTI test I take a lot of care to explain this is about what they would ideally want, not what they think they 'should' answer, or more importantly not what they think others would expect of them.
Btw I think in 3D as a general rule. I see systems and patters very well. I struggle to describe what I can see in words at times. This is one of those occasions, I am struggling to describe to you the system I can see.
I have my own time as a professional working with trauma and abuse, but probably from the other end than you.
Life experience has seen me come across a number of people damaged by their parents, people who has been forced against their natural preference. One of the types particularly at risk is the INFP, who are dreamers by nature.
scarfie - I also agree that our personalities never change. But our character does. I found that the M. B test was very long winded and complicated, and gave very little back in understanding. I would recommend Florence litteuar,s book Personality Plus to anyone for a much better understanding of ones personality.
Turned off? I thought that only the tap for existing housing was being turned off, or at any rate, made ever so slightly more complicated? Does that mean more munney for new, empty, apartment blocks? Capital flight from China is a serious worry for the CCP so presumably the pressure is only getting higher...
White flight from Auckland still seems to be in season, too, although we are far too culturally sensitive and refined to actually admit it to ourselves.
Core blimey even STUFF have woken up to the reality of a credit bubble!
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/108202849/aussie-property-market-slowd…
I'm not sure STUFF actually has any staff to be awake or otherwise. Isn't it just run by robot programmes repeating stories based on algorithmic analysis of their likely impact on advertising revenue? Maybe they do still have a few legacy humans to help with copying and pasting, possibly.
Nic, your article refers to Sydney having 20K empty homes, yet Auckland has 33K classed as empty and Corelogic argues we're safe!
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11…
As at 2016 "Auckland's 6.6 per cent vacancy rate is higher than Sydney (5.2 per cent)", therefore it would be a stretch to suggest its changed much since. China's capital controls and the FBBB are to blame for removing many cashed up marginal buyers. How many of these homes could hit the market now the upward momentum is history? It's quite a potential overhang of unutilized housing.
COT Black: Term Oil Means Turmoil
https://www.alhambrapartners.com/2018/10/29/cot-black-term-oil-means-tu…
After the dotcom bubble, the Nasdaq plunged 78%. Wave after wave of dip buyers were rewarded with small goodies and then taken out the back and shot. Many companies disappeared entirely. That was an example of a collapse. That’s when the Fed got nervous.
Today there are only some segments that have gotten hit very hard, though it’s still no collapse, and we’ll get to a few of them.
https://wolfstreet.com/2018/10/27/ugly-october-stocks-is-preamble-homeb…
Is this a case of deja vu ?
The last time LIBOR rose both suddenly and dramatically was in 2008 , and the market subsequently froze when Banks stopped trusting each other .
Now we all know there is no honour among thieves and Bankers never really trusted each other , but they do need each other to balance their books each day .
The fact that EU and possibly Chinese banks are masking non-performing debt with all manner of creative accounting is the stuff of legend , but the truth always comes out in the end .
When the tide goes out we will see who is swimming naked , and apart from the fact those pale overweight, paunchy middle -aged Bankers are not a sight anyone wants to see naked, they will be exposed eventually .
A columnist recently pointed out on this site that the next recession could come from some unforeseen thing that could jump up and bite us on the backside while we are not paying attention .
Lets hope its not another banking crisis that turns around and bites us
Paul Volcker caused a minor stir last week releasing a book he has been working on. The aging former Federal Reserve Chairman apparently has a lot to say about the current state of affairs. “We’re in a hell of a mess in every direction,” he told Andrew Ross Sorkin of The New York Times. No kidding; that about sums it up.
https://www.alhambrapartners.com/2018/10/29/that-didnt-last-long/
Approximately 2,500 researchers from Chinese military universities have infiltrated Western universities over the past decade, focusing on the so-called "Five Eyes" group of countries, reports the Financial Times, citing a new report from Australian government-funded think tank, the Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI).
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-10-29/chinese-military-scientists-h…
The word contagion is easy enough to understand. Whether the spread of disease or disaster, sometimes it is difficult if not impossible to contain. In financial terms, contagion is often thought of along the lines of 2011; Greece started it and it spread throughout the rest of Southern Europe. The euro was coming apart, and what “it” was didn’t seem to matter.
https://www.alhambrapartners.com/2018/10/29/contagion/
The Chinee' may be financially stumbling jrightnow but they're not stupid. They've had a plan for the last 30 years and societies that are running out of credit & good people (lousy birth rates among the wealthy) have bought into it big time. There are an estimated 60 million Chinee' living outside of China. Only a fool would say there are no spies among them. If 1% were reporting back, that would make our number 5,000 & the Aussie number 10,000. If there are 10 million in North America that makes 100,000 on the CCCP pay role. I think these figures are conservative. The CCCP inside China has 90 million members which is 6-7% of the population. If that is the same figure over here then God help us. If they want to be Chiwi's, that's fine. If they want to undermine our cultures (which is exactly what is happening) then we should send them back to the filth & the fury from whence they came. I'm sure the home team be thrilled to see them.
Earthquake details; - https://www.geonet.org.nz/earthquake/2018p816466
..I always jump on twitter when this happens. Within secs one can work out where, how bad and so on. Did it during kaikoura. It was slightly amusing listening to Nat radio floundering around trying to find out where and how bad. Twitter posters meant I had the a pretty accurate idea from the get go.
The upside of social media.
I'm just waiting to see if there is any damage. With the earthquake being 200 km deep I suspect minimal damage despite rolling around so much.
e: Although the one thing that bothers me is that Parliament has stopped operating. I'm sure they are enjoying a tax payer funded session at the pub.
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