Currencies
Roger J Kerr says US rate cuts are going to happen and that confirms continuing USD depreciation as the Feds cuts well ahead of all other central banks
11th Mar 24, 8:14am
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Roger J Kerr says US rate cuts are going to happen and that confirms continuing USD depreciation as the Feds cuts well ahead of all other central banks
US labour market data was mixed. Payrolls beat estimates but there were downward revisions to prior months and the jobless rate unexpectedly rose. It provided few solid signals for policymakers ahead of the FOMC next week
11th Mar 24, 7:31am
US labour market data was mixed. Payrolls beat estimates but there were downward revisions to prior months and the jobless rate unexpectedly rose. It provided few solid signals for policymakers ahead of the FOMC next week
Powell: Fed "not far" from having the confidence to cut rates. ECB on hold, with a June rate cut signal. Wage data and commentary raise chance of BoJ ending negative policy rate stance as soon as March. US and European equities up 1% to fresh record highs
8th Mar 24, 7:49am
Powell: Fed "not far" from having the confidence to cut rates. ECB on hold, with a June rate cut signal. Wage data and commentary raise chance of BoJ ending negative policy rate stance as soon as March. US and European equities up 1% to fresh record highs
Fed Chair Powell faces lawmakers; reiterates that easier policy is likely at some point this year. US ADP employment and JOLTS data in line. US Treasury yields down. USD broadly weaker with DXY index down to it lowest in over a month
7th Mar 24, 7:47am
Fed Chair Powell faces lawmakers; reiterates that easier policy is likely at some point this year. US ADP employment and JOLTS data in line. US Treasury yields down. USD broadly weaker with DXY index down to it lowest in over a month
US ISM services PMI misses consensus forecasts, yields/dollar pushed lower. China's Premier Li Qiang delivers Chinese govt. work report, 5% growth targeted
6th Mar 24, 7:58am
US ISM services PMI misses consensus forecasts, yields/dollar pushed lower. China's Premier Li Qiang delivers Chinese govt. work report, 5% growth targeted
US data print weaker again; ISM services index lower alongside more market-friendly inflation measures. Weaker equities backdrop supports US Treasuries; yields down 4-6bps for the day. China's 5% GDP growth target seen as optimistic
6th Mar 24, 7:45am
US data print weaker again; ISM services index lower alongside more market-friendly inflation measures. Weaker equities backdrop supports US Treasuries; yields down 4-6bps for the day. China's 5% GDP growth target seen as optimistic
US GDP circa 2-3% range, unemployment sub-4%; cuts currently not required. But consensus view is that Fed cuts in 2H, and the USD weakens
5th Mar 24, 8:15am
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US GDP circa 2-3% range, unemployment sub-4%; cuts currently not required. But consensus view is that Fed cuts in 2H, and the USD weakens
US treasury yields are higher set against the backdrop of heavy corporate supply. Currency markets subdued. Nikkei225 at record high. Eyes on China’s National People’s Congress
5th Mar 24, 8:06am
US treasury yields are higher set against the backdrop of heavy corporate supply. Currency markets subdued. Nikkei225 at record high. Eyes on China’s National People’s Congress
Roger J Kerr says from past performances we all should have known that Governor Orr would take the opportunity to, yet again, wrong-foot the markets
4th Mar 24, 8:51am
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Roger J Kerr says from past performances we all should have known that Governor Orr would take the opportunity to, yet again, wrong-foot the markets
US manufacturing ISM weaker than expected. New orders, production and employment all contracted suggesting the manufacturing sector is struggling to gain momentum. Preliminary Eurozone CPI data for February continued to fall
4th Mar 24, 8:08am
US manufacturing ISM weaker than expected. New orders, production and employment all contracted suggesting the manufacturing sector is struggling to gain momentum. Preliminary Eurozone CPI data for February continued to fall
USD softens, yields fall on ISM Manufacturing/Mich. consumer sentiment misses. Eurozone inflation declines less than expected, core remains above 3%. A rare bright spot: China's non-manufacturing PMI beats expectations
4th Mar 24, 7:32am
USD softens, yields fall on ISM Manufacturing/Mich. consumer sentiment misses. Eurozone inflation declines less than expected, core remains above 3%. A rare bright spot: China's non-manufacturing PMI beats expectations
Market relieved that US PCE deflators were bang in line with expectations; US 10-year rate well down from its overnight high. BoJ board member sows the seed for exit strategy from current ultra-easy policy stance, supporting JPY
1st Mar 24, 7:59am
Market relieved that US PCE deflators were bang in line with expectations; US 10-year rate well down from its overnight high. BoJ board member sows the seed for exit strategy from current ultra-easy policy stance, supporting JPY
Limited moves across global asset markets. The RBNZ’s decision to leave rates on hold at 5.5% and soften its hawkish bias sent bond yields and the NZD/USD sharply lower as the market priced out the residual risk the Bank would hike again
29th Feb 24, 8:04am
Limited moves across global asset markets. The RBNZ’s decision to leave rates on hold at 5.5% and soften its hawkish bias sent bond yields and the NZD/USD sharply lower as the market priced out the residual risk the Bank would hike again
Market ignores chunky downside misses to US consumer confidence and durable goods orders data. Pricing of rate hike chance fades leading into RBNZ MPS today, now just priced at a 20% chance; strong analyst consensus for no-change
28th Feb 24, 7:43am
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Market ignores chunky downside misses to US consumer confidence and durable goods orders data. Pricing of rate hike chance fades leading into RBNZ MPS today, now just priced at a 20% chance; strong analyst consensus for no-change
Latest monthly figures from the Reserve Bank reveal it boosted its 'foreign currency intervention capacity' by a further NZ$810 million last month - and it doesn't look to be finished
27th Feb 24, 3:49pm
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Latest monthly figures from the Reserve Bank reveal it boosted its 'foreign currency intervention capacity' by a further NZ$810 million last month - and it doesn't look to be finished
US equity markets pause relentless ascent, remain close to record highs. Yields up, crude up, gold down, US dollar up
27th Feb 24, 8:27am
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US equity markets pause relentless ascent, remain close to record highs. Yields up, crude up, gold down, US dollar up
Global rates push higher, driven by Europe and heavy US bond supply; US 10-year rate up 6bps from NZ close. Long NZD positions pared ahead of RBNZ MPS; market pricing for near-term rate hikes eased back a little
27th Feb 24, 7:36am
Global rates push higher, driven by Europe and heavy US bond supply; US 10-year rate up 6bps from NZ close. Long NZD positions pared ahead of RBNZ MPS; market pricing for near-term rate hikes eased back a little
Roger J Kerr says the Australia-US exchange rate is likely to surge higher faster and further than the NZ dollar-US dollar rate over coming months
26th Feb 24, 8:08am
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Roger J Kerr says the Australia-US exchange rate is likely to surge higher faster and further than the NZ dollar-US dollar rate over coming months
Equity markets consolidated after a week where major indices in Japan, Europe and North America reached record highs. Data dependency and inflation sustainability the key policy drivers before lower rates
26th Feb 24, 7:20am
Equity markets consolidated after a week where major indices in Japan, Europe and North America reached record highs. Data dependency and inflation sustainability the key policy drivers before lower rates
Record breaking equity markets across Japan, euro area and US; Nvidia's blockbuster earnings report propels the stock higher and drives S&P500 up 2%. Market continues to pare back expectations of Fed easing
23rd Feb 24, 7:41am
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Record breaking equity markets across Japan, euro area and US; Nvidia's blockbuster earnings report propels the stock higher and drives S&P500 up 2%. Market continues to pare back expectations of Fed easing
There were limited catalysts for global asset markets overnight in the absence of first-tier economic data or fresh guidance from policy makers. But eyes are on both the Fed minutes, and the keenly awaited Nvidia corporate results
22nd Feb 24, 8:31am
There were limited catalysts for global asset markets overnight in the absence of first-tier economic data or fresh guidance from policy makers. But eyes are on both the Fed minutes, and the keenly awaited Nvidia corporate results
US equities down, yields up, crude up, gold up, US dollar mixed. Low volatility, subdued trading conditions prevail amidst quiet data flow. Traders watching key topside technical breaks for the Kiwi versus the dollar & yen
22nd Feb 24, 8:24am
US equities down, yields up, crude up, gold up, US dollar mixed. Low volatility, subdued trading conditions prevail amidst quiet data flow. Traders watching key topside technical breaks for the Kiwi versus the dollar & yen
US equities lower, led by tech, US Treasury yields lower and USD broadly weaker. Market unperturbed by surprise cut to China's 5-year prime loan rate, scepticism that it will achieve much. NZD outperforms
21st Feb 24, 7:49am
US equities lower, led by tech, US Treasury yields lower and USD broadly weaker. Market unperturbed by surprise cut to China's 5-year prime loan rate, scepticism that it will achieve much. NZD outperforms
US equities closed, US yields closed, crude up, gold up, US dollar flat. Markets await RBA minutes, PBoC rate decision, and Canadian CPI. NZD near where resistance expected to halt its rise
20th Feb 24, 7:52am
US equities closed, US yields closed, crude up, gold up, US dollar flat. Markets await RBA minutes, PBoC rate decision, and Canadian CPI. NZD near where resistance expected to halt its rise
China reopens after LNY holiday with positive economic snippets on travel and spending. European gas and carbon markets continue show much weaker pricing
20th Feb 24, 7:43am
China reopens after LNY holiday with positive economic snippets on travel and spending. European gas and carbon markets continue show much weaker pricing
