Currencies
US PCE in-line; market pricing a 50/50 split for the 20 March FOMC meeting. Rates markets currently project 5-6 cuts vs the Fed's median dot plot of 3
29th Jan 24, 8:52am
US PCE in-line; market pricing a 50/50 split for the 20 March FOMC meeting. Rates markets currently project 5-6 cuts vs the Fed's median dot plot of 3
Roger J Kerr says the still-high level of inflation that has declined a bit isn't yet cause for celebration and the RBNZ needs to explore more options to get it lower. But he sees US inflation march lower even if their economic data remains mixed
29th Jan 24, 8:30am
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Roger J Kerr says the still-high level of inflation that has declined a bit isn't yet cause for celebration and the RBNZ needs to explore more options to get it lower. But he sees US inflation march lower even if their economic data remains mixed
US data confirm solid end to the year for consumer spending and inflation tracking near target. Tokyo CPI data comes in surprisingly soft. ECB speakers deliver mixed messages on prospects for near-term policy easing
29th Jan 24, 7:44am
US data confirm solid end to the year for consumer spending and inflation tracking near target. Tokyo CPI data comes in surprisingly soft. ECB speakers deliver mixed messages on prospects for near-term policy easing
GDP up an annualised 3.3% in Q4, PCE deflator at 1.5% and core PCE deflator at 2%. US Treasury market supported by the benign inflation backdrop, yields slightly lower. European rates and EUR lower. NZD flat just over 61 USc
26th Jan 24, 8:34am
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GDP up an annualised 3.3% in Q4, PCE deflator at 1.5% and core PCE deflator at 2%. US Treasury market supported by the benign inflation backdrop, yields slightly lower. European rates and EUR lower. NZD flat just over 61 USc
US GDP on fire, 4Q economic growth at 3.3%, easily beating 2% consensus. US consumer continues to spend amidst; blessed with immaculate disinflation? ECB maintains 4% deposit rate, still not considering timing of rate cut
26th Jan 24, 8:28am
US GDP on fire, 4Q economic growth at 3.3%, easily beating 2% consensus. US consumer continues to spend amidst; blessed with immaculate disinflation? ECB maintains 4% deposit rate, still not considering timing of rate cut
US equities rise to fresh record high. China surprises with 50bps cut to RRR; Bank of Canada drops tightening bias; Global PMI data support the market. NZ inflation moderates
25th Jan 24, 8:11am
US equities rise to fresh record high. China surprises with 50bps cut to RRR; Bank of Canada drops tightening bias; Global PMI data support the market. NZ inflation moderates
Stocks in Hong Kong surged amid reports that Chinese authorities are considering a range of measures to help stabilise equity markets after a significant period of weakness. The US dollar extended its 2024 gains
24th Jan 24, 7:50am
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Stocks in Hong Kong surged amid reports that Chinese authorities are considering a range of measures to help stabilise equity markets after a significant period of weakness. The US dollar extended its 2024 gains
US equities continue their record-breaking run, a contrast with the slump in Chinese equities. Global rates push lower, US 10-year rate down slightly. No change expected from the BoJ later today
23rd Jan 24, 7:48am
US equities continue their record-breaking run, a contrast with the slump in Chinese equities. Global rates push lower, US 10-year rate down slightly. No change expected from the BoJ later today
Roger J Kerr says weaker than expected inflation and jobs data in Australia has forced away any lingering expectations of further Reserve Bank of Australia (“RBA”) interest rate hikes
22nd Jan 24, 7:55am
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Roger J Kerr says weaker than expected inflation and jobs data in Australia has forced away any lingering expectations of further Reserve Bank of Australia (“RBA”) interest rate hikes
The S&P500 reached a record high close underpinned by a strong performance by technology companies. US Fed speakers push back against near term rate cuts as the blackout period begins for the January FOMC
22nd Jan 24, 7:39am
The S&P500 reached a record high close underpinned by a strong performance by technology companies. US Fed speakers push back against near term rate cuts as the blackout period begins for the January FOMC
Fed's Bostic joins Waller: Fed rate cuts likely to commence in early 2H-24. ECB minutes and GC member speeches push back against market pricing. Aussie jobs numbers deliver large downside miss on headline growth
19th Jan 24, 9:13am
Fed's Bostic joins Waller: Fed rate cuts likely to commence in early 2H-24. ECB minutes and GC member speeches push back against market pricing. Aussie jobs numbers deliver large downside miss on headline growth
US 10-year rate up to a fresh high for the year of 4.15%, driven by US initial jobless claims showing a surprising fall to a 16-month low. Global forces push up NZ rates, with a weak first bond tender of the year not helping NZGBs
19th Jan 24, 7:48am
US 10-year rate up to a fresh high for the year of 4.15%, driven by US initial jobless claims showing a surprising fall to a 16-month low. Global forces push up NZ rates, with a weak first bond tender of the year not helping NZGBs
Global equites fell and bond yields moved higher as investors trimmed expectations for rate cuts by major central banks. US retail sales were higher than consensus estimates. 2-year treasury yields increased 15bps supporting the US dollar
18th Jan 24, 8:01am
Global equites fell and bond yields moved higher as investors trimmed expectations for rate cuts by major central banks. US retail sales were higher than consensus estimates. 2-year treasury yields increased 15bps supporting the US dollar
Lift in US Treasury yields during Asian session extended overnight; rates up 10-13bps across the curve for the day. Fed Governor Waller argues that, when the timing is right, the Fed Funds rate should be "lowered mechanically and carefully"
17th Jan 24, 7:47am
Lift in US Treasury yields during Asian session extended overnight; rates up 10-13bps across the curve for the day. Fed Governor Waller argues that, when the timing is right, the Fed Funds rate should be "lowered mechanically and carefully"
S&P500 futures down slightly and US Treasury futures consistent with a lift in the 10-year rate. Euro area economic data continue to underwhelm but ECB commentary shows reluctance to cut rates; German rates push higher
16th Jan 24, 7:54am
S&P500 futures down slightly and US Treasury futures consistent with a lift in the 10-year rate. Euro area economic data continue to underwhelm but ECB commentary shows reluctance to cut rates; German rates push higher
US PPI, softer than expected, yields and dollar softer in early US trade. Risk mood sours through US trade following US/UK Middle East offensives. Range trading prevails, market awaits further data to aid central bank rate cut calls
15th Jan 24, 9:16am
US PPI, softer than expected, yields and dollar softer in early US trade. Risk mood sours through US trade following US/UK Middle East offensives. Range trading prevails, market awaits further data to aid central bank rate cut calls
Roger J Kerr says there is a strong argument that the New Zealand interest rate market is pricing in far too many cuts, far too early, from the current 5.50% OCR rate
15th Jan 24, 7:46am
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Roger J Kerr says there is a strong argument that the New Zealand interest rate market is pricing in far too many cuts, far too early, from the current 5.50% OCR rate
Softer than expected US producer prices support rally in global bonds. US 2-year treasury yields reached the lowest level since May. Weak inflation pressures and subdued demand for credit support the case for lower policy rates in China
15th Jan 24, 7:46am
Softer than expected US producer prices support rally in global bonds. US 2-year treasury yields reached the lowest level since May. Weak inflation pressures and subdued demand for credit support the case for lower policy rates in China
US December CPI stronger than expected with core inflation at 3.9%, headline 3.4%. Immediate reaction: risk assets sell-off, 10-yr yield ascends back through 4%. Losses pared through second half of US trade implying CPI beat expected
12th Jan 24, 8:46am
US December CPI stronger than expected with core inflation at 3.9%, headline 3.4%. Immediate reaction: risk assets sell-off, 10-yr yield ascends back through 4%. Losses pared through second half of US trade implying CPI beat expected
US 10-yr yield reclaims territory above 4% as dovish outlook reconsidered. Australian monthly CPI falls from 4.9% to 4.3%; RBA to remain on hold in February
11th Jan 24, 9:29am
US 10-yr yield reclaims territory above 4% as dovish outlook reconsidered. Australian monthly CPI falls from 4.9% to 4.3%; RBA to remain on hold in February
Even though markets seem sure the US Fed Funds rate will need to fall as US inflation does - and that will make the USD weaker - Roger J Kerr warns managers to be aware of the risks to that weaker US dollar expectation
8th Jan 24, 8:51am
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Even though markets seem sure the US Fed Funds rate will need to fall as US inflation does - and that will make the USD weaker - Roger J Kerr warns managers to be aware of the risks to that weaker US dollar expectation
More pushback from Fed officials on market pricing for significantly easier monetary policy next year, but market shows little reaction in Fed Funds market; US Treasury yields push higher, led by long end; oil prices continue to recover
19th Dec 23, 7:51am
More pushback from Fed officials on market pricing for significantly easier monetary policy next year, but market shows little reaction in Fed Funds market; US Treasury yields push higher, led by long end; oil prices continue to recover
US yields & the dollar spike higher on Fed's Williams comments, then reverse. Eurozone PMIs softer-than-expected, EUR worst performer amongst the G10
18th Dec 23, 9:55am
US yields & the dollar spike higher on Fed's Williams comments, then reverse. Eurozone PMIs softer-than-expected, EUR worst performer amongst the G10
Roger J Kerr says it has just taken an extraordinary length of time for the Fed and the markets to conclude that interest rates did not need to go any higher and would need to come down in 2024 to avoid a recession
18th Dec 23, 8:23am
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Roger J Kerr says it has just taken an extraordinary length of time for the Fed and the markets to conclude that interest rates did not need to go any higher and would need to come down in 2024 to avoid a recession
US policy makers push back against speculation of near-term rate cuts by the Fed. ‘We aren’t really talking about rate cuts right now’. European economic activity weak. German bund yields dropped to lowest level since January
18th Dec 23, 7:37am
US policy makers push back against speculation of near-term rate cuts by the Fed. ‘We aren’t really talking about rate cuts right now’. European economic activity weak. German bund yields dropped to lowest level since January
