Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
There are no changes to report today.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
None here either. Update: ANZ raised most TD rates from 1 month to 1 year. Their new 6 month rate is up +10 bps to 5.65% and their new 1 year rate is up similarly to 5.80%.
FLAT RESULT
There was another dairy auction this morning and it was uninspiring. Volumes sold were low and "there simply isn’t much in the way of fundamentals to drive the market one way or another" said the NZX Dairy analyst. Overall prices were unchanged in USD although they did fall in NZD terms.
RENTS HOLD THEIR HIGHER LEVELS
Housing rents held on to their summer gains as the market headed into winter. The average rent on newly tenanted homes increased by $25 a week in the year to April.
EVEN THE BIG GUYS ARE STRUGGLING
Fletcher Building's house sales fall well below their initial targets. The construction giant expects to sell about 650 dwelling units in the nearly-finished financial year to June - which compares with targets a year ago of over 1000.
BIG COVERED BOND TRANSACTION
BNZ has sold €750 mln (NZ$1.3 bln) in covered bonds with a term of 5½ years. This is BNZ’s first EUR benchmark trade this year and follows their last benchmark EUR covered trade in June 2022. These investors will get a € yield of 3.71% on these bonds. They will be listed in Luxembourg and have a AAA rating.
OPENING UP - WIDER
The Government is making changes to the Skilled Migrant Category as part of the immigration rebalance, to help businesses attract workers to fill skill shortages. There will now now be no cap on highly skilled workers, there is to be a new six-point system to give certainty to migrants on their eligibility, a clearer criteria and faster pathway to residence for highly skilled people, and an extension of Accredited Employer Work Visa (AEWV) to five years and introduction of five-year maximum continuous stay AEWV. Employer groups are applauding these changes.
KKR COMING, SEES PROFIT OPPORTUNITY
Shoppers who owe Buy Now Pay Later debt should take note of this European transaction earlier today. PayPal sold €40 bln of BNPL debt to KKR, a famous New York deal maker who "manages multiple alternative asset classes". They didn't buy this debt to hold on an interest-free, fee-free basis. They clearly see juicy ways to profit from collecting that debt. Will your BNPL provider sell your debt? Home loan lenders already view BNPL debt as evidence of loose personal money management. Now you need to worry about someone other than the BNPL firm coming to collect.
ATO CLAMPING DOWN
In Australia, their tax office has signaled that starting on July 1, it will be cracking down on six areas that Aussies used to use to minimise their taxes. They include home office deductions, stricter rules for claiming interest for 'business expenses', making sure all rental income is disclosed (not just all expenses), and making sure they get all their capital gains taxes. In addition most states are introducing land taxes effective July 1 (ACT, Queensland, South Australia, Western Australia and Northern Territory). And Victoria is ending its stamp duty concession for first home buyers.
SWAPS LITTLE-CHANGED
Wholesale swap rates are likely ending today little-changed. However, the real action in swap rates comes near the close. Our chart will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is up a minor +1 bp at 5.68% and +18 bps above the 5.50% OCR. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -2 bps from yesterday at 3.97%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp at 2.71%. And the NZ Government 10 year bond rate is at 4.48% and also down -1 bp, but that is still higher than the earlier RBNZ fix which was down -3 bps to 4.43%. The UST 10 year yield is now at 3.74% and down -6 bps from yesterday.
EQUITIES MIXED AGAIN
Wall Street was down -0.5% on the S&P500 at the end of its Tuesday trade. Tokyo has opened its Wednesday session up +0.2%. Hong Kong is down another -1.4% at its open, and that is down -3.4% in just two+ days. Shanghai is down -0.2% in their early trade. The ASX200 is down -0.3% in afternoon trade. The NZX50 is little-changed in late trade, very marginally softer.
GOLD LOWER AGAIN
In early Asian trade, gold is at US$1938/oz and down another -US$10 from this time yesterday. It ended in New York at US$1937/oz, and earlier in London at US$1930/oz.
NZD LOWER STILL
The Kiwi dollar has slipped again today, down another -20 bps and now at 61.7 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 90.8 AUc. Against the euro we are softish at 56.5 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is lower at 69.5.
BITCOIN TAKES OFF
The bitcoin price has risen sharply today and is now at US$28,795 and up an impressive +7.0% from this time yesterday. Institutional interest is said to be behind the move. And volatility has been very high at +/- 4.4%.
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83 Comments
Honestly, there probably aren't enough competent MPs (in government) left to govern.
If the election wasn't approximately 3.5 months out, calls for a snap election would be quite valid. Really a snap election should have been called after Ardern quit.
I get the impression that Labour MPs at this point are just there for the pay-check and the odd Bellamys lunch.
I dont need the PM to "appeal" to me. I'm tired of people getting voted in for their "appeal" instead of their competancy. We've just had 5 years of a PM that got voted in because she was likeable, and look how badly that turned out. How about we forget about whether someone is likeable or not, and focus on whether they can actually be a leader and get the Govt depts working to fix all the things that are broken.
I feel like a leader should lead by example. Claiming the clean car discount while railing against that subsidy along with recent claims that those who can pay should pay, albeit in reference to a different subsidy seem like pretty clear examples of not leading by example.
Luxon has given absolutely no indication he can be a competent Prime Minister or Leader. He should be romping home miles ahead and he's stumbling like a fool, barely managing to keep ahead of the badly injured Labour. If he can't even convince the country to follow him given the situation we're in how do you expect him to lead the country as PM.
You know you're a good leader because when you look behind you see that people are following you. Who does Luxon see?
"...the revamp and simplification of the Skilled Migrant visa which will allow more skilled migrants into the country"
Skilled? Please.
They are loosening the system again, from 3 years for a "temporary" work visa to 5 years. Apparently you should be getting paid >$59 ph as well? All those cooks and bottle store workers we import as skilled migrants will definitely be getting that right?
It's workers getting paid at least at the median level (29.66/hour).
So the "skill" threshold for future workers is at the median skill level of the current workforce. You don't need a bar that low if it's surgeons, qualified nurses and specialist engineers you're after.
We aren't exactly an ambitious bunch, eh? Aiming for mediocrity!
That's because the objective is to cram them in. Nothing as noble as sustainability, or improving the lives of people living here. It's just NZs unspoken policy of cramming them in. Although Ximon Bridges spoke the unspoken to the masters of the universe gathering.
https://www.nbr.co.nz/unabridged/nz-population-lets-try-for-10-million/
Of course in 10 years and we have bloated our population as planned, a grey balding Ximon will be extolling the virtues of 20 million to the same crowd.
Freedom from freedom is what these one dimensional gnomes offer.
Many in my network have begun opening offices in lower cost centres such as South Africa, Philippines and Vietnam, where engineering talent is fairly abundant and we can pay above market rates to get good people and keep them happy.
Before Covid, we would’ve moved these workers to NZ offices. Now that living costs here are hard to justify, there’s no real sense in moving workers here only to pay 2-3x their offshore wages for the same effort.
It’s long been obvious that our outrageous house prices (especially relative to income) would cost us not only socially, but economically.
I imagine it would be much easier attracting highly skilled migrants here if our housing was 30-40% cheaper. After all, that’s one of the reasons so many English people migrated here in the early 2000s (a much stronger pound also contributed, and possibly a bit of post 9/11 fear)
Add nail salon workers to the list.
The system is so open to abuse. A new growth industry is employers of these types of businesses charging kick backs of up to $40k or $50k to sponsor workers from their home countries (such as some Vietnamese nail salon owners sponsoring Vietnamese workers). Kickback paid in cash back in country of origin so not traceable by IRD in NZ. Continuation of slave labour in NZ under a different guise. NZ immigration is impotent and not resourced to prevent or police this type of activity.
Across the ditch, Anthony Klan discovers that 600+ ATO & Tax Ombudsman officers were being trained by ex-PwC tax partner Michael Bersten over the past 15 months. Bersten was also running a 'tax advisory committee' for the Law Council until just days ago.
Officials have been busy cleaning up websites and removing any connection to Bersten. Being the superb journo he is, Klan has all the deleted webpages.
Seems like the bureaucrats are donkey deep over there.
— Hundreds of tax officials trained by Ex-PwC tax boss
— “300-plus” ATO staff trained last year alone
— Michael Bersten “removed from all teaching” says UNSW
— ATO “doesn’t know” if others tied to PwC scandal on payroll
— Law Council of Australia drawn into the mounting scandal
https://theklaxon.com.au/ztem-34/
A good read. Thx.
Former PwC partner Peter Collins had been banned for two years over leaking confidential Federal Government plans to combat multinational tax evasion. Collins had been engaged by the Federal Department of Treasury from 2014 to help create new laws to prevent tax evasion by multinationals.
This is the consequence of hammering the civil service. Some of the best people leave. The civil service then comes to rely on the private sector to plug gaps rather than training and leading from within. Next thing you know the private sector is running the show for profit (as is the private sector's nature) rather than public good.
It's typically neo-liberal playbook and is one of the reasons why inequality is getting worse in countries where right-wing governments have made cuts to public services, privatised public assets and kept public salaries low.
In hindsight, a great investment Wolfie. Can be bought via Sharesies. About Micostrategy's core business, I don't know too much about their value proposition. Prior to adding BTC to their reserves, a very pedestrian share performance throughout the company's lifetime.
It's probably not me you are thinking of, but two days ago, I was doing just that.
The underlying value is an asset that has increased less than the overall asset price. How on earth could it be a better purchase than bitcoin itself (which is still a shite purchase....)
Via AFR: "Day of valuations reckoning looms for owners, valuers and auditors"
ASX-listed Dexus, one of the country’s largest office tower owners, has wiped $1 billion from the value of its diversified portfolio as rising rates exact a toll on the commercial property sector. This writedown cycle may take several revaluation rounds to play out.
Charter Hall takes $1.9b hit on portfolio value as rates bite....has cut the value of its $30 billion office portfolio
Look HW2 - TA surveys and asks investors what they will do and reports on it, then he proposes his own opinion, which is currently divergent to the results of his investor survey. Investors are now more concerned and more likely to sell, as always TA's personal opinion matches his sponsors, yesterday is the best time to buy, only followed by today or tomorrow. My narrative changes with my expectation of market moves, IE I SOLD NOV 21, I think the market will fall further yet (needs to clear TAs selling investors) TA never changes BE QUICK.
An accounting error in favour of MIC?
Pentagon Says It Made $6 Billion "Accounting Error", Clearing More Aid For Ukraine
Great news. The sooner the Kremlin Kleptocracy are removed from their pillage expedition in their neighbouring state, the better. :-)
Although it seems Vlad the Invader has no intension of withdrawal, until the last bit of meat he can round up has been press ganged into the service of the new Russian empire.
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1670483387004641280
https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-recruits-central-asia-migrants-ukraine-w…
"You don't have to wait five years to become Russian citizens -- instead you can sign a contract for military service for six months or up to one year in exchange for fast-track citizenship for yourself and your families,"
Although I'm not sure how attractive citizenship in a failed state would be? Assuming survival of course? Hope any suckers that do sign up aren't expecting actual money from their contract.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qmW5J9jMRgI&ab_channel=GuardianNews
Lets hope your opinion is inaccurate. The Soviet Union was a superpower. Russia is a wannabe super power using hardware from 50 to 70 years ago. It has nukes, but it can't use them. Unless little Vlad fancies running an empire of radioactive dust from his bunker until death?
Guess Milley was being polite, because an economy not much bigger than Australia hardly qualifies as a "superpower". It has legacy nuclear weapons that are useless, unless a return to a radioactive stone age is desired, and a disproportionately bloated military budget, which is skimmed by every man and his dog.
Is Russia a superpower? Normally a superpower would be dominant culturally, economically and militarily.
Culturally - no-one is rushing to move to Russia or buy into Russian culture at the moment, not even their biggest apologists like you Audaxes.
Economically - they are something like 11th in terms of overall GDP. That's lower than Canada and Italy, are they superpower's too? And something like 75th in GDP per capita, that is very very low.
Militarily - well I think the fact that their current invasion of Ukraine was supposed to be won in a couple of days says it all about their military capability. Yes, they have nukes but Putin can't use them because it would be the quickest way for him to be removed from power.
Superpower, no, I don't think so.
He's right that family purchases are off-limits for the media.
But he didn't do a good job of stating that message, he weasel'd, just like he did every other question.
PS - You clearly have an incomplete understanding of the subsidy if you think the dealer can claim it.
I'd go with Willis. She's pragmatic (got the bi-partisan MDRS through) and much more charismatic than Luxon but I suspect that the current National voting base are not keen on a female leader, just based on the level of sexist vitriol levelled at Jacinda. National will not want to lose them to Seymour.
As he clearly said on RNZ this morning (paraphrasing): 'I'm the politician, my wife's finances are not for public discussion' - so yes, definitely.
His interview this morning was such a vacuous sound-bit laden rant. Damn we're in the shitty space whichever corner you're backing.
He's wrong. It is right that it be under potential scrutiny.
He isn't the first politician to claim they are financially separate from their spouses - more often than not, it's a tax/dues dodge.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11745857/PMs-wife-held-shares-…
Biggest mistake Fed made leading to Great Depression (or in 2008) is confusing low rates for "easy money", a fact younger Ben Bernanke once appreciated before blowing it badly later. Falling rates aren't any different these days (see: China). https://buff.ly/46fOvL3 Link
Yes, and they are likely disciplined enough to hold their pricing to maintain margin - rather not sell than sell at a loss (maybe I'm giving them too much credit....)
The risk with all of the smaller developers is 'race to the bottom', allowing sales to continue, while effectively kicking the can down the road....
National Party President must be asking themself
- Can Luxon win?
- If not, is it better to elevate Willis now, and hope for a Jacinda-Hail-Mary, or let Luxon die on the cross, and choose when to elevate Willis/Stanford.
The only question remaining, will he go down in history like David Shearer, or Don Brasch.....
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