A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Friday; retail rate changes quiet, inflation expectations high, jobs & retail firm from weak base, asking rents fall, swaps stable, NZD slips, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
There are no changes to report today. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
None here either. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

INFLATION SEEMS HIGHER TO MANY
According to a survey contracted by the RBNZ, people (householders) think current inflation is running at 5.0% median (6.9% is the average). Actual inflation was 2.5% in the March quarter. Those surveyed thought the average inflation rate would rise to 5.6% in a year, be 4.7% in two years, and still 3.7% in five years. Little house price inflation is seen in a year (2.2%), but these people hope it will be 7.3% on average in five years, both less than they have been in the other recent quarterly survey. Although the survey results may not actually reflect reality, the RBNZ needs to see inflation expectations come back. High expectations distort consumer behaviour.

SIGNS OF STABILISATION?
The BNZ/Seek job ads report revealed a small lift, but the detail still isn't flash. There is a trend toward part-time work. New jobs ads increased +1.1% in April from March. This is the second consecutive month they’ve lifted, which last occurred back in August 2022. BNZ notes: "While it is still too early to assume we’re at the beginning of an upturn, there are clear signs labour demand is at least stabilising. Nonetheless, any improvement would be coming off a very weak base with job ads still -9.6% below year earlier levels, and 48% below their mid-2022 peak."

NOT 'GOING FOR GROWTH'
Retailers are letting their inventories shrink even as sales demand eases. From a year ago retail sales volumes were only +0.3% higher in March from the same quarter a year ago, up +1.7% in value on the same basis. (These changes exclude cars and petrol.) "Specialised food" and clothing seem to be the main gainers, online retailing seems to be the main drag. But even the gainers are only off a weak base. Retail inventories were down -0.6% on the same value basis, down -1.5% in you include cars and petrol. Despite the lackluster data, most of it was better than analysts were expecting.

ASKING RENTS SAG
Advertised rents on Trade Me Property continue to slide due to high levels of rental stock. On average rents on this platform fell -3.1% in April from a year ago.

A CONSERVATIVE VIEW
Rabobank has released its forecast for the 2025/26 season Fonterra milk payout, and at $9.50/kgMS they have set it conservatively, certainly more conservative than those few others who have a next-season forecast released. See a summary of all analyst forecast here.

LIVESTOCK MARKET UPDATE
The latest livestock schedules indicate level prices but a bit higher for beef. Processors are however very quiet. Normally at this time of year, plants would be full of cull cows, but dairy farmers are holding onto stock to capitalise on strong milk prices. Out reduced cow kill out is having little impact in the US hamburger market, as increased imports from Australia and Brazil are filling the gap. Notably, Brazil's beef shipments to the US in April were eight times higher than the same period in 2024, setting new record levels. H/T PRM You can see prices by processor in our live tables in our Rural section.

NZX LOWER AGAIN
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.4% so far today, largely ignoring the Budget. It is down -1.3% for the past week, down -3.4% since the start of the year, but up +6.9% from this time last year. Gentrack, Channel Infrastructure, Summerset, and SkyTV lead gains while Infratil, Heartland , F&P Healthcare, and Kathmandu fall.

YIELDS HOLD AT LATEST NZGB TENDER
There was almost $1.4 bln bid in the three NZGB maturities tendered today where a total of $450 mln was offered. Of the 84 bids received, 34 won something. Yields were similar to the prior equivalent except for the April 2029 maturity which rose +12 bps in a week.

BIG BESS DEPLOYED
Meridian has completed and deployed the country's first grid-scale battery, and eyes solar expansion. Ruakākā's 'Big BESS' officially opens, with Meridian planning more grid batteries and solar power generation

CONTROLLING RICE PRICES A DANGEROUS JOB
Japanese inflation is holding high, and came in at 3.6% in April, the same as in March. But that was its lowest since December. Food prices rose the least in four months but were still up +6.5% from a year ago, down from the March +7.4%. This dip came after the government took steps to curb rice prices that have doubled over the past year. High rice prices have cost the government minister 'responsible' for that sector his job this week.

MORE LIQUIDITY, REGULARLY
In China, their central bank injected ¥500 bln (NZ$120 bln) of new liquidity into financial institutions through their one-year medium-term lending facility. That was less than the ¥600 bln added in April.

SWAP RATES STILL ON HOLD
Wholesale swap rates may be little-changed yet again at the short end today stymied by low loan demand. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp at 3.30% on Thursday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -10 bps at 4.43%. The China 10 year bond rate is up +1 bp at 1.70%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -6 bps at 4.68% but was down -12 bps to 4.63% in the earlier RBNZ fix today from yesterday. The UST 10yr yield is on 4.54%, down -5 bps.

EQUITIES MIXED
The NZX50 is down -0.4% today, but the ASX200 is up +0.3% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is up +0.8% in early Friday trade. Hong Kong has risen +0.6% at its open while Shanghai is up only +0.1%. Singapore has opened down -0.2%. Wall Street ended its Thursday session with the S&P500 unchanged after a sharp dive at the end.

OIL SOFT
The oil price is down -US$1 at just under US$61/bbl in the US, and down -50 USc to just on US$64/bbl for the international Brent price.

CARBON PRICE HOLDS
The carbon price is unchanged today at NZ$56/NZU but there is very little volume. The next official carbon auction is on Wednesday, June 18, with a $68 floor price. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD SLIPS
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$44/oz from this time yesterday at US$3295/oz.

NZD EASES MARGINALLY
The Kiwi dollar is down -20 bps from yesterday, now at 59.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 91.9 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 52.3 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now at 67.6 and -10 bps softer.

BITCOIN FIRMS SHARPLY
The bitcoin price is at US$111,260 and up +1.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been low however at +/-0.7%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by 8ollowing our Economic Calendar here ».