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A review of things you need to know before you go home on Wednesday; hot new HSBC mortgage rates, China data impresses, mortgage market weak, swap rates fall sharply as does the NZD

A review of things you need to know before you go home on Wednesday; hot new HSBC mortgage rates, China data impresses, mortgage market weak, swap rates fall sharply as does the NZD
For Wednesday, July 16, 2014. <a href="http://www.shutterstock.com/">Image sourced from Shutterstock.com</a>

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

TODAY'S RATE CHANGE
HSBC today came roaring back into the mortgage market today with three hot 'specials', all for 5.85% - if you are a 'Premier' customer. The new rate applies to fixed offers of 1, 2 and 3 years. The three year one is especially competitive.

HELP FOR NORTHLAND FARMERS
Both BNZ and ANZ have announced discounted interest rates for Northland farmers suffering through their flood conditions.

CONSUMER PRICE RISES TAME
Today's CPI inflation data came in almost exactly as the RBNZ had assumed. There are no surprises here. It was only in two groups that we see any pressures - central and local government charges (+3.6%) and housing and household utilities (+3.4%). Otherwise the overall +1.6% pa reflects most items. However, the low number does raise the question about whether the RBNZ will actually follow through with an OCR increase next week.

HANGOVER ?
Has the 'rock star' economy overdosed on white powder? While you could hardly call it 'carnage', todays data certainly gives the sense things have been taken to excess and we may be about to 'pay' with some withdrawal symptoms. ANZ now sees a possible 'sub $6' Fonterra payout. Others see a sharp deterioration in our just-improved current account.

CHINA DATA IMPRESSES MARKETS
Today's data dump from China for June has impressed, mainly because most measures came in as expected and there was relief there weren't any surprises. Q2 GDP was at +7.4%, retail is holding up strongly at +12.4%, and industrial production came in at +9.2%, better than the expected +9.0%. The US dollar rose sharply on the releases because it is the US economy's demand that is driving the Chinese gains. The NZ dollar fell back relatively.

MORTGAGE APPROVALS WEAKER AGAIN
Actually, these approval volumes are now at their lowest (for a regular non-holiday week) since September 2011. We are not too far away from calling the trend a 'slump'. Values are holding up better, but it only the expensive end of the market that is keeping in mortgage industry going. Prices might be grabbing the headlines, but volumes are are eroding seriously.

WHOLESALE RATES
Wholesale swap rates fell sharply across the board today with the two and three year terms down -9 bps, one and four years down -7 bps and five years down -6 bps. The 90 day bank bill rate was down another -1 bp late in the day at 3.66%.

OUR CURRENCY
The NZ dollar has fallen sharply today and is now at 86.9 USc, more than 100 bps lower than this time yesterday. The combination of the poor dairy prices, the CPI, and the unexpectedly good China data all saw it tumble. It is also down at 93.2 AUc. The TWI is at 80.9

You can now see an animation of this chart. Click on it, or click here.

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7 Comments

Banks will need to cut their rates in order to shore up demand for mortgages.  6 to 7% is expensive price for money in today's globalised world.  This is not the mortgagebelt of the 1980s. 

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however who will lend to us at  (say) <2%?

Unlike the Fed we are not QEing /printing and hence money has to be enticed here.  It can also exit fast.

regards

 

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We seem to be out of step with the rest of the world. Our rates are going up whilst others are static or still falling. This can't go on forever and I don't think it will. Many dairy farmers will run at a loss at under $7. 

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Maybe Wheeler will slash the OCR next week. If not then business confidence is going to be well down by Election Day!

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It seems Wheeler is still under the influence of the World Bank and other global entities who need NZ to play its role as a commodity-based high interest rate country. 

Even an Australian 2 year fixed mortgage can be 4.8% 

 

 

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Kimy, we may well find that risk drives interest rates.

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Kimy - the RBNZ's forecast for Q2 was 0.3%. It was 0.3% and Wheeler is the head of the RBNZ - please explain how "he got it wrong", or is it just you that did ? 

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