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A review of things you need to know before you go home on Tuesday; SBS Bank slashes its 3yr rate, Truckometer reduces speed, card spending mellows, used imports surge, swap rates rise

A review of things you need to know before you go home on Tuesday; SBS Bank slashes its 3yr rate, Truckometer reduces speed, card spending mellows, used imports surge, swap rates rise
For Tuesday, September 9, 2014. <a href="http://www.shutterstock.com/">Image sourced from Shutterstock.com</a>

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

TODAY'S MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
SBS Bank today reduced its fixed three year home loan interest rate to 5.89%. That is -30 bps lower than the next lowest rate for that term and they have grabbed the market leading position firmly. They also offer the option of a $3,000 cash incentive, of a combination of the two.

TODAY'S DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
There were no changes today.

TRUCKOMETER REDUCES SPEED
The ANZ Heavy Traffic Index fell -1.2% in August after rising +2.5% in July. More modest growth rates are of course exactly what the Reserve Bank ordered, to avoid overheating. But a halving in dairy prices was not on the agenda, says ANZ economists.

TAILING OFF
It is pretty clear now that we are off our highs for consumer confidence. Today's card spending data confirmed the point with only a modest increase. But it was constrained spending on fuel that kept it low. Household spending continues to trend upward but the pace of growth has slowed since the start of the year.

WE LIKE USED
Used car imports were strong again in August, with 11,290 vehicles registered in the month, the fourth month in a row the level was above 10,000. We haven't seen that since 2007. Imports of Nissan brand vehicles were especially strong with them coming in in second place just behind perennial leader Toyota. We are buying new cars at the rate of 241,000 a year (new and used imports) and that is up 21% from the same time a year ago.

BIG SHIFTS
In case you missed it, we keep a close look at international commodity prices in our IMF Commodity charts. They are telling some interesting stories for New Zealand. For example Arabica coffee prices are up +48% in a year, Beef is up +38% in a year, Lamb up +13%. On the other hand Dubai crude is down -10%, soft logs are down -11%, cotton is down -25% while coarse wool is down only -3%. Rice is down -18% and wheat is down -19%. Dairy is not alone. The world is awash in food.

IT'S NOT ALL DOWN
Beef prices are now at a six year high and looking to push up above those 2008 levels.

WHOLESALE RATES
Swap rates rose today pretty much mirroring the overnight New York benchmark rate moves. One, two, three and four years are up +2 bps, five  and seven years are up +3 bps, and ten years is up +4 bps. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 3.69%.

OUR CURRENCY
Check our real-time charts here. The NZ dollar had a quiet day after slipping back on a stronger US dollar and a weaker Aussie dollar. We are at 82.5 USc, now at 89.1 AUc and the TWI is just under 79.0.

You can now see an animation of this chart. Click on it, or click here.

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7 Comments

Jack Ma has become a dairy farmer.

In June, his private equity firm Yunfeng made a $320M investment in an Inner Mongolian dairy company owned by Yili Industrial Group. In doing so, he has joined the ranks of Legend Holdings, Netease and other Chinese technology giants who have made surprising jumps into agriculture (often through private equity investments).

These new “agri-tech nerds” are popping up all over China. Internet giants, mobile entrepreneurs and other tech nerds are suddenly launching projects in cows and blueberries. For example, Lenovo owner Legend Holdings now lists agriculture as one of its five core investment areas.

This is a very big deal. This new collision of technology and agriculture is one of the most important phenomena in China today. It is also one of the weirdest. We’re pretty sure Bill Gates never owned a pig farm.

What is really happening is that cutting-edge Chinese brainpower is finally being applied to food quality and safety. High tech innovation and new business models are being brought to a very low-tech sector of the economy. And this collision is already yielding important insights.

http://www.scmp.com/comment/blogs/article/1583478/why-jack-ma-becoming-dairy-farmer-big-deal

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nah, our new bestest buddies would never copy NZ argicultural information that we've given them, or use the genetic database LIC gave them for free to build flasher factories cheaper than us.
 Read it just a few months ago that they are going to want thousands, millions even, of tons more cows and milk and milk powder for ages yet (I believe 2020 was in print)

Do you mean to say they might be using some of their spare capital to make knock-offs and spin-offs with more technology and robots and cheap labour.

Is that why Fonterra is pouring heaps of cash into the old infant formula company?   I wonder where our buddies are getting their cashflow from??

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and what impact did Elon Musk have on NZ's auto sector?

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Henry, what I invariably find missing from these articles is any mention (let alone understanding) of ag economics.

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Correct, its best to draw data from a number of sources (off the top of our head):

Several large ag businesses are listed, so start with Modern Dairy, their investor material/annual reports shows other large farmers (may be 3 or 4).

There is the pig farming company being used by the penguins to restructure their nz assets (some needs translation). With their prospectus for the funding raise

There is for example WH Group (buyers of smithfield that just listed after 1 false start).

Most are Cayman/BVI listed in HK, with assets in China (some not wholly owned). Many have associated companies owned by directors that supply feed or breeding stock.

There is a March presentation from Robobank that talks about the production margin of "China Safe Milk", similar comments from Modern Dairy and others too.

There are a number of us firms that export lucurne, and the listed companies also discuss the price of feed local and imported & price of new stock from Aust & NZ.

 - At present we are still looking if China are buying at low price, or buying none at all, or buying else where.

 

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Wheres vol

Here: https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/200215.pdf

Fonterra milk collection:
  • New Zealand 5% higher in August 2014 and 5% higher for the season to date
  • Australia 9% higher in August 2014 and 10% higher for the season to date

 

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