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A review of things you need to know before you go home on Friday; ICBC raises mortgage rates, retail spending slows, Apple on top in NZ, swaps rise & steepen, 90 day rates fall to new low, NZD hangs on

A review of things you need to know before you go home on Friday; ICBC raises mortgage rates, retail spending slows, Apple on top in NZ, swaps rise & steepen, 90 day rates fall to new low, NZD hangs on

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today. If you normally skip it, it is worth checking out the 'Wholesale Rates' section today.

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
ICBC has raised all its mortgage rates today, including their floating rate which is up +15 bps to 5.70%. Fixed rate offers rose by +19 bps to +55 bps.

DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
There are no rate changes to report today.

RETAIL GROWTH STUNTED
Retail spending using electronic cards was $4.8 bln in February, up $121 mln or +2.6% from the same month a year ago. That is sharply slower growth than we have seen in a long time, July 2012 to be exact. And seasonally adjusted, the February levels were -0.6% lower over the prior month with the fall driven by a lull in furniture, electronics, and department store purchases.

LENDING COMMITMENTS DOWN
New dwelling construction is falling in Australia. Data out today shows it down -1% in January from the same month a year ago, and down -3% in the full year to January. But finance for those dwellings is actually growing, so the fewer units are getting larger loans. But financing pre-existing dwellings has also been falling in the past four months and this tail-off is somewhat surprising on a national level. The stories are all about Sydney (where there is no lending growth) and Melbourne. It is particularly tough in Western Australia and the Northern Territory.

A RETURN OF CHINESE DEMAND?
News Corp in Australia is reporting that in a stunning reversal, the overseas Chinese have dramatically re-entered the Sydney and, to a lesser extent, Melbourne off-the-plan apartment markets. The long-term outlook for the apartment market in both cities has therefore completely changed. They also report trend changes on the Gold Coast and in Brisbane. A Chinese banking expert told them that the word from the Chinese banks is that the Chinese government’s clamp down on smaller investors taking money out of the country is likely to be eased later in 2017 - hence the scramble by overseas Chinese to re-enter the market now to buy off-the-plan, with settlement some years away.

CAPITAL CLAMPDOWN HURTS HUGE PROJECT
But, going the other way, the giant Johor, Malaysia development at Forest City opposite Singapore may be in serious trouble. All the sales centres in China have been closed, "dozens", and all promotion in China stopped. The shine is evaporating without Chinese sales, probably driven by the clampdown on capital flight.

APPLE TAKES NO 1 SMARTPHONE SLOT FROM SAMSUNG
Apple regained top spot in the New Zealand smartphone market during the December quarter for the first time since the first quarter of 2012, International Data Corporation (IDC) says. Apple shipped 221,000 smartphones, Samsung 176,000, and Huawei was third with 143,000. Vendors shipped a record high volume of 672,000 smartphones during the December 2016 quarter, up 58,000, or 9.4%, from the same period in in 2015. Apple's surge to top spot could be good news for ANZ, given it's the only NZ bank offering Apple Pay.

TRANSPOWER PRICES BONDS
Transpower has priced a $100 million fixed rate bond issue. The bonds, due to mature in September 2022, will pay annual interest of 4.069%, being a margin of 0.90% over the swap rate. The bonds will be issued on March 16.

WHOLESALE RATES RISE, AND FALL
The New Zealand 10 year swap rate reached a fifteen month high today of 3.64%, pushing up the 2-10 curve steeper to +128 bps, its highest in over three years. The two year rate is unchanged, the five year is up +2 bps and the ten year is up +4 bps. It is also worth noting that since Wall Street closed, the UST 10yr has risen to 2.62%. The 90 day bank bill rate is down again by -1 bp to 1.96% and this is now the lowest rate since the RBNZ started collecting these records 32 years ago, and probably forever. (On March 8, 1985 the 90 day bank bill rate reached 35.5%, a rate only boomers will remember ;).

NZ DOLLAR HOLDS LOWER
The NZD slipped below 69 USc earlier today but has held that level during today's trading and moving slightly higher at the end. It is now at 69.1 USc. The next move will depend on how tomorrow's US non-farm payrolls report is received. On the cross rates we are at 91.8 AUc which is where it was at this time yesterday after flirting with a higher level earlier, and at 65.2 euro cents. The TWI-5 index is now at 74.9 recovering from a lower level earlier. Check our real-time charts here or see below.

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Daily exchange rates

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End of day UTC
Source: CoinDesk

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16 Comments

It appears that some of Auckland's drinking water is being downgraded to "swimmable".
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/90297202/critical-water-shortages-auckl…

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Auckland is falling apart

Auckland is falling apart since it increased the population to breaking point - a single car crash on any one of the motorways during peak-hour brings the entire city to a halt, infill housing and increased housing density is overwhelming the storm-water infrastructure which no longer copes resulting in flooding and saturation of the diminished clear ground resulting in land-slips, too-frequent power blackouts across the super-city, and now the Clevedon-Hunua water catchment can no longer cope - when was the last time that happened?

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Wait till the return of Chinese mainland demand hits later this year, from the sounds of the above.

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You mean a rumour.

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Yes. Did I need to qualify it with "should it come to pass"?

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They will be back at some point. It's only a question of when, suitable regulation would be a good thing to have.....

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Pump and dump...pump and dump...

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Next they will be selling "green"

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#GoodBuy - Toronto is the new Vancouver.

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or the next Auckland, half its citizens were born outside Canada

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It does look remarkably similar:

Toronto

Look at this. Sold this week for 1.5M, 300K over the homes.co.nz. Looks similar to those examples in that ladies twitter feed:

https://www.bayleys.co.nz/Listing/Auckland/Auckland/Sandringham/1630156

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So at some point it becomes a clear case of sacrificing the future of young locals for a quick buck from the foreign influx who will replace them.

Ah well, guess the muskets and blankets likewise worked out well for Maori, eh.

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And Auckland Mayor Phil Goff shows his dyed in the wool adherence to outdated "tax and spend " policies.

He wants a targetted rates levy on hotels to pay for tourist promotion by ATEED , when that set -up is not even needed .

You cannot get an hotel room in Auckland for the sheer tsunami of tourist arrivals , so why do we need ATEED ?

I have always said that ATEED should not even exist as a ratepayer funded entity , its wasteful and inefficient , and whatsmore it is not required

The left knows nothing else but to take and spend other peoples money a lot less carefully than you or I spend our hard earned money

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I managed to break my way through the paywall to The Australian article about Sydney apartments booming again. I did a Google search for a phrase in the article and got through once. Quite interesting read although I wonder how true it is. Some quotes:

Overseas Chinese are now snapping up some 50 per cent of Meriton apartments sold off the plan...
...Australian-born Chinese are taking around 25 per cent and Australian investors/first homebuyers are taking about 25 per cent.

It's odd that Australian-born Chinese are regarded as a distinct group. I'd have thought they would just be Australians. However it is significant that the Chinese ethnic group make up 75% of purchases. Property buying is a big thing for Chinese all over the world. The communists stopped it in China for awhile but now it is back big time. Landlords felt the full brunt of the communist revolution. I'd say that purchasers of large, possibly sub-dividable properties, in Auckland are over 50% Asian.

..the unofficial word from China is the clamp on small investor money leaving the country to buy apartments is unlikely to go on for much more than one year.

I have heard this too but could be just a rumour.

..an enormous swing in the global student population towards Australia in the wake of President Trump and the UK visa restrictions.

Interesting.

Australia is being forced into a massive, globally-oriented rescue effort where many hundreds of millions of dollars are being channelled to non-bank institutions to enable the funding of 70 per cent of the purchase price of Melbourne apartments.

Australia is helping foreign Chinese finance their apartments after the local banks stopped lending to them and the Chinese government tightened capital outflow. Quite a money making opportunity there as they are charging quite a high interest rate (8%) if I read it right.

The possible big trouble that the Malaysian development could face is also notable. I think Western, English speaking countries will be the premium investment locations for some time to come.

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Murray Ball has died ... along with the likes of Sir Ed Hillary , Howard Morrison , Billy T. James , and Colin Meads ... Murray was one of those iconic Kiwi characters ... a giant amongst us ... who made us laugh equally as much as he showed us who we are ... and made us proud to be called a Kiwi ... gumboots , black singlets , dodgy electric fences and all ...

... the Dog and Wal will live on forever in our memory ...

RIP Murray Ball : cheers , cobber !

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