A review of things you need to know before you go home Monday; many rate changes to start July, population growth, Aussie house prices up again, swap rates up again, NZD rises

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
BNZ raised its two year 'special' by +5 bps. ANZ raised its one year rate to 4.55%, a +6 bps rise. Kiwibank cut its one year rate by +24 bps to 4.45% but raised its 2 and 3 year standard rates.,

DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
SBS Bank has raised its one year TD by +5 bps, but that gives it a market leading rate for that term. It did cut other rates around that term. In addition it has pitched its 3 year rate at 4.08, which is also market-leading. TSB Bank has trimmed their rate offer for its Premier Cheque product. And they have added +5 bps to their Cash PIE offer. Here is a review of where the term deposit market is currently at.

IT IS POSSIBLE
New Statistics NZ population projections have one scenario that shows Auckland's population could double in the next 25 years. The same projections show NZ's total population could hit 6 million in only about 10 years' time.

TIP ANNOUNCES $2.7B UDC FUNDING DEAL
TIP Trailer Services, the subsidiary of China's HNA Group set to oversee UDC if HNA's takeover is approved, says it has finalised $2.7 bln of securitisation financing arrangements with lenders. This would kick-in after a sale was completed, expected to be later this year. The lenders include ANZ, CBA, Westpac, Deutsche Bank, the NZ Super Fund, and a fund managed by Credit Suisse Asset Management. No details of the financing arrangements were revealed. TIP says UDC will also offer a new debenture programme, which will be on a smaller scale to the current one.

LOSING THEIR MOJO
Chinese factory managers are not so optimistic any more. The closely watched Caixin PMI climbed back into positive territory in June, with firms noting slightly stronger increases in production and new orders. This prompted companies to increase their purchasing activity, albeit only slightly. However, relatively muted client demand overall led manufacturers to reduce their inventory holdings and trim their workforce numbers again. At the same time, optimism towards the business outlook edged down to its lowest level in 2017 to date. Despite all this, today's report actually beat expectations.

UP AGAIN, BUT LOSING STEAM
An Australian index of house prices for the combined capital cities rose +0.8% in June, following a rare -1.1% drop in May, according to CoreLogic. Sydney and Melbourne drove the June increase, rising by +2.8% and +2.2% respectively. That makes them +9.6% higher on a year-on-year basis, up +12.2% and +13.7% annually for Sydney and Melbourne.

UNSTITCHING THE OUTFLOWS
A US Federal Reserve economist has shown that money spent overseas by Chinese tourists – some US$215 bln last year – is not all it is cracked up to be. A large amount of the money designated as having come from Chinese tourists globally should actually count as investment in assets, it is asserted. Financial outflows concealed as travel imports are large and significant, growing to around 1% of China’s GDP in 2015 and 2016, and account for a quarter of recorded net private financial outflows. This would mean that China’s current account surpluses over the past few years are actually larger than reported and possibly as big as before the GFC.

WHOLESALE RATES JUMP AGAIN
The giant American markets may be closed for the July 4 holiday weekend, but the rest of the world is still pushing up benchmark yields. And that is flowing through to our wholesale markets today. Local rates have raced higher and gotten steeper today in a further significant move higher. The 2 year rate is up another +4 bps to 2.37%, 5 year is up another +5 bps to 2.93% and 10 year is up another +6 bps to 3.41%. The 90 day bank bill rate is also up +1 bp to 1.99%. The two year rate has now risen +17 bps in a week which is quick and well more more than halfway to the point at which bankers policy makers will need to react.

NZ DOLLAR RESILIENT
Volumes are often light on Mondays and they will stay that way until the US trading comes back on stream on Wednesday our time. Locally, the NZD is slightly higher at 73.3 USc. On the cross rates we are also a little higher, trading now at 95.4 AUc and at 64.2 euro cents. That takes the TWI-5 to 77.1. Bitcoin is not doing a lot today, down +1.2% to US$2,512

You can now see an animation of this chart. Click on it, or click here.