GDP
Roger J Kerr says the evidence from all the US economic data over the last month has to be that the risks have subsided, therefore the Fed have done enough with tight monetary policy to achieve their 2.00% inflation target
11th Dec 23, 8:15am
2
Roger J Kerr says the evidence from all the US economic data over the last month has to be that the risks have subsided, therefore the Fed have done enough with tight monetary policy to achieve their 2.00% inflation target
David Hargreaves has a look at the forthcoming GDP figures - the last major economic data release for the year. As far as GDP goes - resilience is the word
10th Dec 23, 6:00am
39
David Hargreaves has a look at the forthcoming GDP figures - the last major economic data release for the year. As far as GDP goes - resilience is the word
Westpac economists say we should expect the Reserve Bank to be unforgiving of any shocks that boost the growth and inflation outlook over the next year. Also, the RBNZ will likely be less willing to pre-emptively ease, as markets seem to currently expect
4th Dec 23, 12:15pm
24
Westpac economists say we should expect the Reserve Bank to be unforgiving of any shocks that boost the growth and inflation outlook over the next year. Also, the RBNZ will likely be less willing to pre-emptively ease, as markets seem to currently expect
Roger J Kerr struggles to make sense of the Reserve Bank's latest 'stringent' message
4th Dec 23, 8:02am
16
Roger J Kerr struggles to make sense of the Reserve Bank's latest 'stringent' message
In the second part of his preview of 2024, David Hargreaves examines whether a combination of new Government policies, rampant migration and an enlivened housing market could undermine efforts to get the economy on a sound footing
3rd Dec 23, 8:00am
85
In the second part of his preview of 2024, David Hargreaves examines whether a combination of new Government policies, rampant migration and an enlivened housing market could undermine efforts to get the economy on a sound footing
David Hargreaves explains what he is looking for in the economy in 2024 as we wait to see if the battle against inflation really can be won
2nd Dec 23, 10:23am
17
David Hargreaves explains what he is looking for in the economy in 2024 as we wait to see if the battle against inflation really can be won
David Hargreaves has a look at the economic developments in the past year and lines these up against what the expectations were at the start of the year
1st Dec 23, 9:44am
50
David Hargreaves has a look at the economic developments in the past year and lines these up against what the expectations were at the start of the year
Indications of likely future inflation continue to drift lower in the latest ANZ Business Outlook Survey, but the new Government's honeymoon continues, with business confidence hitting its highest level since early 2015
30th Nov 23, 1:24pm
2
Indications of likely future inflation continue to drift lower in the latest ANZ Business Outlook Survey, but the new Government's honeymoon continues, with business confidence hitting its highest level since early 2015
[updated]
Reserve Bank leaves Official Cash Rate unchanged at 5.5% but warns if inflation proves stronger than expected it may have to hike the OCR again
29th Nov 23, 2:20pm
93
Reserve Bank leaves Official Cash Rate unchanged at 5.5% but warns if inflation proves stronger than expected it may have to hike the OCR again
Roger J Kerr says the fundamental premise of lower US inflation, equals lower US interest rates, equals a lower US dollar still holds as compelling today as it was in early 2023
27th Nov 23, 8:52am
4
Roger J Kerr says the fundamental premise of lower US inflation, equals lower US interest rates, equals a lower US dollar still holds as compelling today as it was in early 2023
Kiwibank economists say households are showing few signs of financial stress in the face of higher interest rates, but 'a lot hinges on the labour market'
16th Nov 23, 1:03pm
61
Kiwibank economists say households are showing few signs of financial stress in the face of higher interest rates, but 'a lot hinges on the labour market'
Roger J Kerr says the continuous switching by global investors between “risk-on” and “risk-off” mode over the course of the last year is reflected in the up-down-up pattern of the US equities Dow Jones Index
13th Nov 23, 8:58am
4
Roger J Kerr says the continuous switching by global investors between “risk-on” and “risk-off” mode over the course of the last year is reflected in the up-down-up pattern of the US equities Dow Jones Index
Economists say the Reserve Bank will be wary of survey results that show shorter term inflation expectations have fallen but longer term expectations for both inflation and interest rates have risen
9th Nov 23, 9:07am
70
Economists say the Reserve Bank will be wary of survey results that show shorter term inflation expectations have fallen but longer term expectations for both inflation and interest rates have risen
Influential RBNZ survey shows a small but significant drop in the expected level of inflation in two years time, and a sharp drop in expectations of one-year-out inflation; house prices expected to rise
8th Nov 23, 3:51pm
31
Influential RBNZ survey shows a small but significant drop in the expected level of inflation in two years time, and a sharp drop in expectations of one-year-out inflation; house prices expected to rise
ANZ economists are still forecasting another Official Cash Rate hike next year and say domestic inflation is still sky high, and yet to capitulate, while 'a lot still needs to go right' for the OCR to not need to eventually go higher
7th Nov 23, 1:40pm
17
ANZ economists are still forecasting another Official Cash Rate hike next year and say domestic inflation is still sky high, and yet to capitulate, while 'a lot still needs to go right' for the OCR to not need to eventually go higher
The economy is growing much slower than usual and unemployment is rising
Economist Brian Easton says there is a view that the world economy is entering a period of higher inflation and higher nominal interest rates, but who knows? Presumably New Zealand has to follow
6th Nov 23, 9:46am
41
Economist Brian Easton says there is a view that the world economy is entering a period of higher inflation and higher nominal interest rates, but who knows? Presumably New Zealand has to follow
Roger J Kerr says US dollar bulls are hastily reversing their long-USD positions as the scenario for next year of US interest rates decreasing well ahead in time of all others starts to become a higher probability
6th Nov 23, 9:09am
Roger J Kerr says US dollar bulls are hastily reversing their long-USD positions as the scenario for next year of US interest rates decreasing well ahead in time of all others starts to become a higher probability
Just as the Reserve Bank appears to be turning the inflation battle in its favour, here comes the double trouble of rampant immigration and a refreshed housing market
5th Nov 23, 6:00am
133
Just as the Reserve Bank appears to be turning the inflation battle in its favour, here comes the double trouble of rampant immigration and a refreshed housing market
The latest ANZ Business Outlook survey shows a bounce in most activity indicators; ANZ chief economist says 'it would clearly be a stretch to argue there's been no election impact'
31st Oct 23, 1:46pm
49
The latest ANZ Business Outlook survey shows a bounce in most activity indicators; ANZ chief economist says 'it would clearly be a stretch to argue there's been no election impact'
Economist Brian Easton says the more informed an economist is, the more they keep their head down during elections
30th Oct 23, 8:32am
12
Economist Brian Easton says the more informed an economist is, the more they keep their head down during elections
Roger J Kerr says an RBA interest rate hike next week would certainly propel the AUD/USD exchange rate higher, and the NZD/USD rate will follow
30th Oct 23, 8:14am
6
Roger J Kerr says an RBA interest rate hike next week would certainly propel the AUD/USD exchange rate higher, and the NZD/USD rate will follow
Statistics NZ says food and housing continue to be key drivers of increased costs for households
26th Oct 23, 11:13am
53
Statistics NZ says food and housing continue to be key drivers of increased costs for households
Roger J Kerr sees the US playing a very high-stakes 'game' that cannot last, raising the risks of an American recession. The USD is over-valued and until it comes down, American interest rates will stay high
23rd Oct 23, 7:00am
11
Roger J Kerr sees the US playing a very high-stakes 'game' that cannot last, raising the risks of an American recession. The USD is over-valued and until it comes down, American interest rates will stay high
Housing and petrol prices were the largest contributors to inflation during September
17th Oct 23, 11:00am
105
Housing and petrol prices were the largest contributors to inflation during September
