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New figures show slowest rate of borrowing growth in a year-and-a-half, while bank deposits shrank for the first time in three years

New figures show slowest rate of borrowing growth in a year-and-a-half, while bank deposits shrank for the first time in three years

By David Hargreaves

The Reserve Bank's likely to be happy that its monthly sector credit figures for January show the slowest rate of borrowing growth in a year and a half.

Separately, however, the big banks are unlikely to be thrilled with household deposits figures showing a monthly drop in Kiwis' bank deposits for the first time in three years.

The banks have been battling to attract deposit funds in the face of very low interest rates and have been needing to go offshore for more funding in order to keep up with borrowing demand.

This has led to a higher cost of funds for the banks - and to mortgage interest rates being pushed up, even though the official rates set by the RBNZ have been falling and are set to remain at current levels for some time.

It is not unusual for the overall level of deposits held by Kiwis to drop over Christmas, but this is the first time such a drop has occurred since January 2014.

Moreover, the $336 million fall in deposits, to $162.302 billion, has seen the annual rate of deposit growth slip to 6.8%.

After dipping as low as 6.7% in September, the annual growth rate blipped back up to 7.5% in November on the back of a couple of months of strong growth.

However, the latest month has seen the annual growth rate dip back toward levels last seen some six years ago as the country was recovering from the Global Financial Crisis.

Of some relief to the banks though will be the fact that the demand for borrowing is easing back, following the RBNZ's October introduction of 40% deposit rules for housing investors.

The banks have been starting to undertake credit 'rationing' in the face of the weaker stream of deposits coming in.

The slower rate of borrowing has been led by the investors, as separate RBNZ figures show.

The total household claims figure, which is mostly made up of mortgages, but also includes consumer finance, rose by a seasonally adjusted 0.5% in January.

That's the slowest rate of growth since June 2015. The monthly growth in household credit has been as high as 0.8% since then and was 0.7% in December.

The total rose by nearly $1.3 billion to $248.163 billion.

It's worth noting though that even with this slower growth, combined with the fall in deposits, it means the gap between what the banks took in during January and what they loaned out was over $1.5 billion.

Just in terms of straight mortgages, the total rose to $232.068 million in January from $230.779 in December.

This is the last time the RBNZ will be producing these borrowing and deposits figures in this form, with a new series of statistics set to make their debut in April.

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8 Comments

Much has been made of the recent increases in term deposit rates, but in actual fact, term deposit rates of around 4.25%max is still really low compared to what they used to be 5 yrs ago. (5.5% or so). And inflation now is slightly higher too. Its no wonder that people are looking at either using up money or putting it somewhere else.

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Maybe the bank of mum and dad are taking their money out of the bank, to buy some property for their children going off to uni, or just to invest in property. Also shares have been going up again, so that could explain the rise. Also banks don't appear ro be as safe as they were with their exposure to the property bubble.

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Maybe the bank of mum and dad are taking their money out of the bank, to buy some property for their children going off to uni, or just to invest in property. Also shares have been going up again, so that could explain the rise.

Possibly, but,

Deposits change hands when bank savers buy stocks from a seller.

Buying houses is the same for cash rich buyers purchasing from a seller. Residual seller mortgages (bank assets) net out against the deposit (bank liability ledger). If the buyer needs a mortgage the bank debits the new mortgage ledger to credit the buyer's deposit account. Read more

Furthermore, S1(A3.3) + S6 = ~ S7, pretty much in balance.

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Could it be that there are leakages, I.e deposits are leaving the economy?

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could it be with no wage growth people are having to spend there savings or are unable to save

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For one, the center point of the argument has not been about the trade of goods between nations but rather the trade of jobs for goods; we send them jobs, they send us goods we used to make, and pay for it all with eurodollars manufactured by bank balance sheets that would always, it was assumed, grow with equal energy to either of those trends.
http://www.alhambrapartners.com/2017/02/27/it-was-dollars-all-along/

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Not quite the saving discipline of the Chinese who (suprisingly) save 40% of their disposable income.

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Which possibly points to 40% of their income not having to go just to putting a rood over one's head.

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