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A review of things you need to know before you go home on Tuesday; FEI reduces td rates, building consents underwhelm as does business confidence, bank deposits up strongly, NZD stops falling

A review of things you need to know before you go home on Tuesday; FEI reduces td rates, building consents underwhelm as does business confidence, bank deposits up strongly, NZD stops falling
For Tuesday, September 30, 2014. <a href="http://www.shutterstock.com/">Image sourced from Shutterstock.com</a>

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

TODAY'S MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
There were no changes today.

TODAY'S DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
There were changes today, from FE Investments. They have reduced their one year TD to 7.20%, down +30 bps from 7.50%, and reduced their 18 month rate to 7.50%, down -20 bps from 7.70%.

AUCKLAND LIMP
Although still in a broad upward trend, building consent levels actually fell in August from July. Mainly this was due to what I think are disappointing numbers out of Auckland, and to some extent Christchurch. Apartment building is keeping the numbers elevated. In Auckland, the rate of consenting has fallen to below 8,000 per year and they need to be building to a level of nearly twice that. We still have a long way to go. There wasn't much to get excited about from the non-housing consent levels either.

POLITICAL FRACAS
According to today's ANZ business confidence survey, firms are going about their own business with a positive outlook, but are generally nervous about the future. They see their own prospect improving but think their industry is less likely to fare well. This disconnect between the 'Own Activity' survey and the 'General Conditions' survey has been seen before and it often signals firms are unduly optimistic for themselves. Sentiment has declined by a "whopping" 58 points since February. However the survey authors suggest it was election uncertainty behind the fall. We will know in another 30 days.

DAMP TINDER?
The combined level of residential mortgages outstanding reached a record $196.2 bln at the end of August according to RBNZ data out today. That was up $741 mln in one month. The shift to fixed gathered steam in the month rising from 70.0% at the start of August to 71.1% by the end of the month. The proportion that is due for a rate reset within 12 months however is 61.6%, and that is down from 62.8% at the end of July. OCR changes will still have an effect at this level, but with even one year fixed rates now falling, that is threatening to moisten the RBNZ's OCR powder.

HOUSEHOLD DEPOSITS UP STRONGLY
August household deposits (what we have in the bank) reached $131.2 bln, up $421 mln in one month. That is +8.4% higher than a year ago.

BUSINESS PROBITY
Both rural and business lending grew in August but at a slower rate than previously. Rural lending is up 3.0% year-on-year, and business lending is up +3.9% year-on-year. This contrasts with mortgage lending (above) which is up +4.9% and other consumer lending (the expensive credit card, personal loan and car loan stuff) which is up +6.9%. Our businesses have borrowed less than two thirds of what our households have.

WHOLESALE RATES
Swap rates drifted slightly lower following the bond yield falls on Wall Street last night, but the falls were small - about -1 bp across the whole curve. The 90 day bank bill rate was also lower today by -3 bps and is now at 3.70%.

OUR CURRENCY
Check our real-time charts here. The Kiwi dollar fell sharply yesterday after the Key-Wheeler double team, but there has been little follow-on today. The NZD is currently 77.5 USc and 89.1 AUc. The TWI currently sits at 75.8.

You can now see an animation of this chart. Click on it, or click here.

Daily exchange rates

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Daily benchmark rate
Source: RBNZ
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End of day UTC
Source: CoinDesk

 

 

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1 Comments

The realisation that ZIRP and QE will actually continue indefinitely as USA debt burden near impossible. 

Even the IRD know the games over as they have dropped student loan interest rate to 5% for overseas nz borrowers.  

The RBNZ has not got a hope of hiking rates next year, as a kind of WWW3 has effectively got underway (see the Pope!). 

China is in serious trouble, with its people, and a kind of false, cocooned economy that cant carry on as it has.   

Australia is struggling.  Russia is flexing its muscles.   The entire Middle East is completely in meltdown mode.  

Commodity prices keep free falling. 

nZ regional cities are in a downward spiral with house prices declining, and sales declining.  

NZ needs to drop interest rates before the economy stalls.   

 

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