A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Friday; final election result (maybe), rents up, misery high, WorkSafe redundancies, swaps firmer, NZD stays up, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
ASB raise three short TD rates today.

FINAL ELECTION RESULT (MAYBE)
The final vote count from the 2023 election reveals National and Act won’t be able to govern without New Zealand First. (Or, National and the Greens have the numbers to govern in coalition, a very unlikely outcome.) National lost two seats after the special votes were counted. Act held. Labour was unchanged. The Greens picked up one. Te Parti Maori picked up two. National is yet to win the by-election in Port Waikato. This all means there will be a parliamentary overhang, with 62 seats needed for a majority. Some results are amazingly close, so recounts could still result in changes. A total of 603,257 special votes were cast in 2023 election, equivalent to 21% of the total, which was up from about 17% in both 2020 and 2017. Voter turnout was 78.2% of those enrolled, down from 82.2% and 79.8% in the prior two elections, and proportion of possible voters that was enrolled was 94.7%.

RENTS UP 7.4%
Our Residential Rent Report reveals that rents were up an average of +$40 a week in the September year. Auckland rents were up +$60 a week. Annual rent increases range from +$7 a week in Dunedin to +$130 in Queenstown-Lakes region. The cheapest rents are in Ashburton at $433/week. The most expensive are in the Queenstown-lakes region at $750/week. Taupo was where the sharpest annual rises occurred, +22%. All this data is based on the MBIE bond tenancy database.

MISERY STAYS HIGH
'Misery', as it is simplified in economics, remains high in both New Zealand and Australia. With data for both countries now in for inflation and unemployment, we have updated our long-term charts. In this context, 'misery' is the inflation rate plus the unemployment rate. For New Zealand that gives a score of 9.5. In Australia, 9.2.

SELF-IMPOSED
Petrol prices remain high, although pump prices have come back slightly in the past few weeks. Most of this recent rise relates to the taxes we impose on ourselves. The crude oil price hasn't moved much (especially in USD), and the oil company component for refining, importing and distribution is currently relatively low.

PRESSURE OFF
Regular readers will know that we monitor grocery prices via a 'healthy' shopping list. Interestingly, that basket of goods is now back to where it was a year ago - quite a different perspective to the standard news media narrative. In between our monitoring did record prices being up +35% in mid February. Now the rise is just +3.3% year-on-year. And that is below current CPI inflation.

WORKSAFE REDUNDANCIES
The final decisions on WorkSafe’s restructure proposal announced last month confirms 113 roles being "disestablished" across the organisation which is responsible for regulating workplace health and safety.

A UNWANTED 40 YEAR RECORD
Australian retail sales rose a very minor +0.9% in September from August, up +2.0% from a year ago in value terms. But that belies a weak background. Retail sales volumes are down -1.7% compared to the September quarter last year. And volumes are lower despite a period of strong population growth. On a per capita basis, retail volumes are down -4.0% compared to this time last year, the largest 12-month fall in the history of their tracking, more than 40 years ago.

NOTHING TO CROW ABOUT
In China, their private services PMI expanded marginally in October, but little-changed from September. Business activity across their service sector is still subdued with a further slowdown in new order growth, which was the weakest in 2023 so far. The Caixin services PMI records an expansion score of 50.4. The official services PMI records a score of 50.6. Expansions yes, but very minor ones. (New Zealand's last services index was at 50.7. In Australia, a very weak 47.9, quite the contraction.)

SWAPS BASICALLY HOLD LOWER
Wholesale swap rates have probably firmed but only slightly across the whole curve. The real reaction will come at the close. Our chart will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is down -1 bp at 5.63% and now +13 bps above the OCR. Financial markets no longer price in any chance of an RBNZ rate rise over the next three years. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -5 bps from yesterday at 4.75%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -2 bps at 2.69%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down another -5 bps at 5.35% from yesterday, but still well above the earlier RBNZ fixing of 5.24% which was down another -14 bps from yesterday. The UST 10 year yield is down another -4 bps from this time yesterday to 4.67%. The UST 2yr is up +6 bps to 4.99%, so the curve inversion has deepened to -22 bps.

EQUITIES ALL SMILES
The NZX50 is up another +0.9% in late trade today, following global trends and is heading for an unusual +3.5% weekly gain. The ASX200 is up +1.2% in early afternoon trade for the same reason, and heading for a +3.2% weekly rise. Tokyo has opened up +1.1% and if that holds will book a +4.0% weekly jump. Hong Kong is starting its Friday up +1.3% and a +1.3% weekly rise, and Shanghai is up +0.5% at its open and that too could be its weekly result. Singapore is up +1.6% at their open. The S&P500 ended its Thursday Wall Street session up +1.9% in a continuing Fed relief rally. In the four days this week the S&P500 has risen +4.8% its best week of 2023 so far.

GOLD HOLDS
In early Asian trade, gold is now at US$1983/oz and down -US$1 from where were this time yesterday. Earlier it closed in New York at US$1985/oz. And earlier still at US$1984/oz in London.

NZD STAYS UP, UNCHNAGED
The Kiwi dollar has stayed at 58.9 USc from this time yesterday as the greenback stays lower. But against the Aussie we are little-changed at 91.7 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 54.5 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is still at 68.7.

BITCOIN FALLS
The bitcoin price is rising today, now at US$34,585 and down -2.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just under +/- 2.3%.

SBF CONVICTED
FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried was found guilty earlier today (Friday NZT) of defrauding customers of his now-bankrupt cryptocurrency exchange in one of the biggest financial frauds on record. The jury came to a very quick decision. A sentence has yet to be handed down. SBF has been in jail since August after the judge revoked his bail, having concluded he likely tampered with witnesses.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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