Strong February for vehicle sales ahead of clean car discount changes

Business / news

Clean car discount changes from April 1 see some late-game pre 'ute-tax' sales and a softening of passenger vehicle sales, but it still added up to the strongest February on record

3rd Mar 22, 6:53pm by Toby Allen

Photo / Toby Allen

New vehicle registrations for February were 12,551 and, though only up 0.5% on February last year, were still the strongest ever for the month of February, the Motor Industry Association (MIA) says.

The total was made up of 7,680 passenger and sports utility vehicles (SUVs), down 11.8% compared to February 2021 and 4,871 commercial vehicles, up 29.0%.

The electric family contributed 689 BEVs (battery electric vehicles), 388 PHEVs (plug-in hybrid electric vehicles) and 1020 hybrids towards the monthly total.

On a year to date basis, the market was down 1.2% (316 units) compared to the first two months of 2021.

There were some sales pattern shifts ahead of the April 1 changes to the Clean Car discount, when it will switch from financial kickbacks on the purchase of new or newly imported electric vehicles (EVs) or plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), to a 'carrot and stick' model which will calculate rebates or fees based on the CO2 emissions of all vehicles.

The fee payable on higher-emitting vehicles became popularly known as the 'ute tax'.

“As anticipated with the pending changes to the Clean Car Discount scheme from 1 April, there has been a shift in sales patterns ahead of the full feebate coming into effect. Sales of passenger cars and SUVs has softened slightly whereas sales of light commercial vehicles, most of which will pay a fee from 1 April onwards, have strengthened.

"This is expected and will likely to be repeated in March sales. Once the full Clean Car Discount (the feebate side of the scheme) comes into effect on 1 April it is anticipated sales of light commercial vehicles will soften,” said David Crawford, chief executive of the MIA.

Top sellers for the month of February, as reported by the MIA:

Overall: the Ford Ranger came out on top (1,111 units), followed by the Toyota Hilux (890 units) and the Mitsubishi Triton (855 units).
Makes: Toyota was out in front with 16% market share (1,972 units), followed by Mitsubishi with 15% (1,927 units) and Ford with 11% market share (1,400 units).
Electric models by type: the top-selling BEV was the Tesla Model 3, the top PHEV was the Mitsubishi Eclipse Cross and the top hybrid vehicle was the Toyota RAV4.
Passenger/SUV makes: Mitsubishi led the market with a 14% share (1,044 units) followed by Toyota with 12% (890 units) and Kia with 10% market share (750 units).
Passenger/SUV models: top sellers were the Mitsubishi Outlander (546 units) followed by the Tesla Model 3 (351 units) and the Suzuki Swift (290 units).
Commercial vehicle makes: Ford regained the market lead with 23% market share (1,141 units) followed by Toyota with 22% (1,082 units) and Mitsubishi with 18% market share (883 units).
Commercial vehicle models: the Ford Ranger regained the top spot as the bestselling commercial model with 23% share (1,111 units) followed by the Toyota Hilux with 18% share (890 units) and the Mitsubishi Triton in third place also with 18% market share (855 units).

The top segments for February were pick up/chassis cab 4x4 with a 21% share, followed by SUV compact vehicles with 19% and SUV Medium on 16%.

New vehicles sold

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Source: NZTA

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20 Comments

by tothepoint | 3rd Mar 22, 8:26pm 1646292369

Oh dear - 12,551 people wasted their money on new cars last month.

They must be mad.

TTP

by waymad | 3rd Mar 22, 10:04pm 1646298252

4871 were commercials - tradies, businesses, etc.

by realterms | 4th Mar 22, 9:02am 1646337731

I tend to agree. But don't forget that those of us who only want to buy used do rather rely on those who buy new as intermediaries...

by Carlos67 | 4th Mar 22, 10:52am 1646344378

Not really TTP, I'm getting pretty excited about buying my first ever new car next year when it finally starts rolling off the production line. No longer concerned with the amount up front or the depreciation, if you have the money you may as well spend it and get some thrills from it.

by Chris-M | 4th Mar 22, 10:46pm 1646387173

Some Numbers.

The average EV uses about 8kg of elemental lithium.

The world makes 78 million new cars per year.

That means that if all new cars were EV,s we would need 624,000 tones of elemental lithium or in term of the more normal unit of measurement 3.8 million tones of lithium carbonate equivalent. (LCE).

In 2019 the worlds total production of lithium was 190,000 tones of LCE. Enough to make 5% of all the worlds cars EV's. Of course lithium is used for other needs so it is not all available for cars. To give you an idea of how much ends up in cars. 5% of the total cars is about 3.9 million cars. in 2019 1.7 million EVs were produced and 0.58 million hybrids. The rest went to other uses.

In 2019 the worlds total known reserves of lithium were 80 million tones of LCE. Enough to make our EV Cars for about 21 years.

Current production will not meet demand so the spot price for lithium has increased over 10 fold in the last year. and that price is increasing exponentially as the gap between supply and demand accelerates. The spot price will inevitably creep into the long term contract prices and at that point it will become obvious to all that we simply cannot make all the EVs that we want to. (in the meantime I will become very rich, but that is another story and irrelevant to whats more important and best for the environment)

80% of the worlds electricity is generated by fossil fuels largely coal and after this Ukraine thing increasingly coal. The well to wheel efficiency to convert fossil fuel to transport by generating electricity and charging up EVs is roughly the same as burning it directly in an IC motor car. If that fuel is coal it will almost certainly produce more CO2. The point is that at best there is really no significant environmental advantage with EVs with the current fossil fuel dependent power generation. Hybrid cars on the other hand are about 67% more efficient than pure IC motor cars. The NZ Govt Right car web site gives 6 l/100 km for a conventional corolla and 3.6 l/100km for a hybrid corolla. Accordingly by far the best option for our present situation is devote our limited Lithium resources to Hybrids. Developing new renewable electricity generation is best devoted to replacing fossil fuel generation. While this is going on we can be developing some of the hoped for improvements in battery technology and replacing fossil fuel power generation. Only then do pure EVs make environmental sense.

These are real market and engineering facts, not pie in the sky hopes based on what somebody thinks that they can achieve in a laboratory.

by GV 27 | 4th Mar 22, 7:15am 1646331342

Let me know when people start caring about all the lithium that was in those phones, laptops and tablets we threw away after one year of use. Suddenly when oil and gas is threatened, lithium conservation and supply matters a lot. Can't recall hearing too much about it before then, in fact the real concern was all the other rare-earth elements in cellphones etc. Ironically, people who bring this up usually don't want to talk about the same issue with things like hydrogen vehicles because there's a shitload of rare earths like palladium in those too - which also tends to be located in awkward places like Russia or China.

Give me micro-reactors in cars already.

by Pragmatist | 4th Mar 22, 7:56am 1646333777

Sounds like a good reason to get in before the cost goes up then, already a 6 month wait minimum on a new tesla.

by Carlos67 | 4th Mar 22, 10:56am 1646344596

My next new car will be ICE only but the production is clearly facing setbacks and its been delayed by a year. It will no doubt be the last of the line but I want the Boxer rumble and the 6 speed manual.

by Pragmatist | 4th Mar 22, 12:52pm 1646351553

Just debating whether to keep the ICE when the tesla arrives. If I had a quarter acre and a three car garage it would be a no brainer, I'd keep it for the odd enthusiastic weekend drive, but the real world practicality of trying to park, insure and maintain three cars with no garaging means i'll most likely have to get rid of it. Might have to hire something fun occasionally to overcome the remoteness of the Tesla.

by HistoryRepeats | 4th Mar 22, 8:21am 1646335269

Wouldn't worry too much about lithium (aside from investing in it, perhaps) - battery tech is constantly changing and improving, and alternative solutions will be found a very long time before "all new cars" are EVs.

A common objection to EVs is that they may not be as "green" as they're made out to be, because of the various materials needed for battery production. But I think nowadays a lot of people who buy EVs (like myself) don't really care. I like mine because it's smooth, quiet, has phenomenal acceleration, is almost zero-maintenance, and only costs a few $ to charge up at home.

Having said that, they're still too expensive to buy new, and the cheaper ones are limited in range. And in 2024 they'll be slapped with RUCs, which will make them less appealing.

by realterms | 4th Mar 22, 9:09am 1646338186

> And in 2024 they'll be slapped with RUCs

I tend to think that the exemption will probably be extended beyond that. This is an incentive to speed fleet electrification, and that process is not going to be very far along by 2024. But I agree that yes at some point there will (and should be) RUC on EVs.

by KBKIWI | 4th Mar 22, 8:25am 1646335555

Lithium is far more abundant than that - it’s in every drop of water in the worlds oceans. Regardless of how it is extracted, you are also missing a large obvious source of already refined lithium that will be available in 20 years time: EV car batteries being recycled.

by Chris-M | 6th Mar 22, 12:13pm 1646522009

Try getting it out of the sea.

Would, could, should.The words is and are, are missing. We have to deal with the present day realities until such time as all the good stuff becomes a reality..

by blobbles | 5th Mar 22, 12:09pm 1646435399

"In 2019 the worlds total known reserves of lithium were 80 million tones of LCE"

We only scaled up our use of lithium recently and as the price soars, that number will likely multiply by quite a large amount.

It is also likely recycling of those batteries is very likely to happen, meaning the re-use number lowers the need for ore extraction.

In addition, we are only going to get better and better at the battery tech AND at building the electrics. All of which will mean over time (just like with ICE engines), cars will be able to go further and further on less battery. For instance, see the great strides Lucid are currently making, check out the video at the bottom where an electric mechanical engineer reviews the changes in Lucids cars to make them more efficient.

by Citizen Smith | 5th Mar 22, 2:36pm 1646444194

Three years ago bought a cheap used imported BEV with a poorly battery, 3 years latter its still running and has at least 4 more years of usable range for me. Its a joy to drive and cheap to run and maintain. We can produce a lot of cheap renewable power here and reduce our reliance on imported fuels. You are arguing for less dependence on fossil fuels, we need to develop our own battery industry to both manufacture and recycle. Who wants to keep big oil afloat?

by dumbthoughts | 4th Mar 22, 8:57am 1646337450

Still boggles my mind why the government is happy to subsidise EVs but not eBikes.

A fundamental problem we have is too many short journeys are completed in the car - electric or not. I can't recall the exact figure, but remember it being something like 50% of all car trips in NZ are 3km or less.

For short commutes, trips into town etc an eBike is the perfect solution. They don't require much juice to charge, you get a bit of extra exercise - which we all know is sorely lacking for many - and you don't clog up the roads.

With an eBike I've been able to cut my vehicle use down so much that my V8 gas guzzler 4x4 only needs $20 of petrol a week (for the occasional longer trip I do to take the dog out for a walk in the hills or go to the dump etc).

I can go to work meetings, do the groceries with some carrier bags, go to the gym, visit friends etc all without breaking a sweat if I want to ride on a higher assistance level, and all for a fraction of the cost of an electric car.

With a higher uptake of eBikes and eScooters, you could potentially have people hold on to their existing cars for longer (thus avoiding scrapping perfectly good vehicles) but still cut down on emissions, fuel consumption and road use.

by realterms | 4th Mar 22, 9:01am 1646337672

One argument would be that the ebike revolution is already going about as fast as supply allows, without any subsidies.

by Pragmatist | 4th Mar 22, 9:08am 1646338113

Because there is a high liklihood that a large percentage of those e-bikes would end up like my bosses e-scooter. Bought, used twice, and hasn't seen the light of day again. It all sounds fine on a nice summers day, but the first rainstorm/gale force southerly and the idea goes out the window, and the car keys are the goto solution.

by redcows1 | 4th Mar 22, 9:13am 1646338429

Next you'll want planners to think harder on making areas more livable and bikable rather than only car friendly. Bloody hippy.

Chris-Ms numbers above show that lineal thinking where dinosaur burning vehicle numbers can only be converted to EV numbers. There is no alternative.

There are so many options for us to be kinder on the planet but so much energy expended to stop that happening.

Personally I think the govt need to pay a $5k subsidy on bikes, then my next mountain bike will only cost a few hundred, not electric though, I'm only allowed one of them after I turn 70, it's cheating.

by GV 27 | 4th Mar 22, 11:00am 1646344841

"For short commutes, trips into town etc an eBike is the perfect solution. They don't require much juice to charge, you get a bit of extra exercise - which we all know is sorely lacking for many - and you don't clog up the roads."

Maybe subsidising people who live close enough to their work or the centre of town at the expense of those who don't have the same flexibility isn't going to be the big win in terms of VKT reduction you think it is. People sitting in congestion on long commutes already have a powerful motivator to switch to other modes - freeing up time and money - so if they haven't so already, there's a high chance that it's not a realistic substitute for driving.

Ask them how they'd feel about using money that could be spent on public transport improvements in their areas about underwriting e-bikes for those who are in a better position than they are. I'm sure they'd be thrilled.