90 seconds at 9 am with BNZ

90 seconds at 9 am with BNZ: Hung Australian parliament good for NZ?; Allied Nationwide collapses; SCF cut to CC

23rd Aug 10, 8:06am by Bernard Hickey

Bernard Hickey details the key news over the weekend in 90 seconds at 9 am in association with BNZ, including news the Australian election on Saturday has delivered a hung parliament. (Video to come shortly.)

The Australian dollar and the Australian stock market is expected to fall on the uncertainty and both our currency and stocks may be caught in the downdraft.

A lower New Zealand dollar is good for our exporters. It will now be more difficult for any government to push through a mining tax or an emissions trading scheme, both of which may have slowed economic growth in Australia.

Slower Australian economic growth would be bad for New Zealand, given Australia is our largest trading partner.

Meanwhile, news emerged late on Friday that S&P had slashed South Canterbury Finance's credit rating by 5 notches to CC and had warned it faces an imminent cash crunch without a capital injection.

South Canterbury Finance must announce an equity capital injection before August 31 to comply with its trust deed. See more here.

South Canterbury Chief Executive Sandy Maier said the company was on track to announce a recapitalisation by next Tuesday.

Also in finance company news, Allied Nationwide was put into receivership by its owner Allied Farmers late on Friday night. It also faced a cash crunch.

Now Allied Farmers faces the difficult task of raising NZ$19 million in fresh equity capital from shareholders. Its chairman John Loughlin resigned.

Its shares are likely to fall sharply when they start trading today.

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48 Comments

by IOU | 23rd Aug 10, 8:55am 1282510553

Why would anyone want to invest more capital into something rated CC? Better bets at the TAB!

by andyh | 23rd Aug 10, 9:05am 1282511102

Bernard - the US house sales data will be out mid-week. It will be truly awful and yet again we will hear 'surprisingly bad data out of the US economy'. Once again the concensus data point from the massed ranks of the US economists will be far too optimistic.

Just wanted to get that off my chest so you at least (come Thursday morning) wont use the same old 'surprise' formula.........

By the way one for your top 10. This interview with Gerald Celente was the talk of the blogosphere on Friday - the 'Greatest Depression'.

http://rawstory.com/rs/2010/0820/economic-forecaster-greatest-depressio…

(the interview is embedded in the above piece)

by Bernard Hickey | 23rd Aug 10, 12:51pm 1282524717

Yikes. And I thought I was a bear.

Great link. I'll pop it into the Stream for Top 10.

cheers

Bernard

by Wolly | 23rd Aug 10, 9:09am 1282511389

If there was ever any doubt that the govt would go the way of all previous govts....rush blindly to cause another splurging property ponzi bout of stupidity that leads friggin nowhere...this 'survey' will remove that doubt:

" New Zealand is the second-most desired country for potential immigrants and letting everyone in would see the population almost treble, according to a survey."

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10668193

I can smell the RE mob slobbering over the very words...the bankers are positively fizzing with joy...the councils can feel the munny...if you think the govt will ignore this and keep a tight control on immigration, you are really foolish. The govt will opt for the same old same old because it means they can fake the growth...hells teeth, they can count on immigrants buying the rotting homes...the cost will be dumped on those who have to live in a land being ruined by the mass of humanity...so who gives a shite.

by David George | 23rd Aug 10, 10:50am 1282517410

Relax Wolly, with unemployment at 7% and serious infrastructure pressure in the immigrant capital of NZ (Auckland) the Government would have to be crazy to open the immigration floodgates. I mean who would benefit? . The only benefits would be to the property ponzi and big businessr, not the average Kiwi that's for sure.

Can you see the Government er... um....they wouldn't would they?

by Wolly | 23rd Aug 10, 11:02am 1282518148

They bloodywell would.

by Wolly | 23rd Aug 10, 9:20am 1282512036

"The mighty can do no wrong"!

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article22103.html

must finish bomb shelter today!

by Danielle | 23rd Aug 10, 3:35pm 1282534519

Whoever wants to be the next PM leader (at federal level, house of representatives) will have to effectivly 'buy off' the independents, only one is a green, the others are national's from 'the regions' aka farmers, they've already said want less red tape not more, the ETS is seen as a lot more red tape. The greens have more power in the senate. So basically, no one party will have much power, so things will take longer to legislate, ie things will be harder to push through.

In the Garnaut report, it recommended that Australia push internationally for a carbon dioxide equivalent concentrations of 450 ppm, which would commit Australia to reductions of 25% on 2000 levels by 2020, and 90% by 2050. He also recommended that Australia have a fall-back position of 550 CO₂ -e concentration, which would entail a 10% reduction in emissions by 2020, and an 80% reduction by 2050. He calculated that the overall cost to the Australian economy of tackling climate change under both the 450ppm and 550ppm scenarios was manageable and in the order of 0.1-0.2 per cent of annual economic growth to 2020.

Imo, big business will pass on the extra costs of an ETS onto consumers until they can become more efficient which is where the effect on growth will come in.

by andyh | 23rd Aug 10, 9:58am 1282514328

Bernard - an absolute MUST! If you watch nothing else...........

This is former US Federal Reserve member Mishkin being absolutely taken down.......

http://www.wcvarones.com/2010/08/incompetent-paid-shill-frederic-mishki…

If he is typical of the idiots/charlatans running the US economy then its no wonder we are were we are.

I dont reacall this being covered last week - 50% plus of Shanghai and Beijing flats are empty:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-17/at-least-half-of-apartments-in…

Boy when the RE Chinese bubble pops its goning to be very unpleasant - no wonder they stress tested their banks to a 60% property fall.

by Christov | 23rd Aug 10, 12:17pm 1282522655

Ta......... Andyh............... geeeeeesus... the only thing that springs to mind is a rat infested silo with the filthy f..kers clambering over each other......

sometimes you gotta think the sooner we're gone the better.

a must to see 4sure.

by Elley | 23rd Aug 10, 11:13am 1282518787

"@ 90 % of these new immigrants that have arrived herein NZ in the last 10 -15 years are just takers of what the early immigrants have worked hard for." And what would that be? Care to elaborate?

"Most new immigrants are devaluing NZ" - Really? I didn't think that would be possible. Most, if not all, immigrants are actually motivated to work (new concept hey?), be productive and be an asset for the country. Which can't be said of a significant number of "real" Kiwis who'd rather sit on their bum smoking P and abusing their kids while waiting for their benefit to be paid.

by Wolly | 23rd Aug 10, 11:23am 1282519395

Sock it to him Elley...how's the baking going by the way?

by Wolly | 23rd Aug 10, 11:37am 1282520230

Paula Knows!

by Vera Fayed | 23rd Aug 10, 10:10am 1282515002

50% of Beijing apartments empty based on a survey " based on counting the number of apartments observed to have no lights on at night." Couldn't possibly get more scientific than that.

by Neville C | 23rd Aug 10, 10:33am 1282516402

The web gets like chinese whispers sometimes.

This is the original article which used meter readings.

http://www.speroforum.com/a/36337/China---Property-speculation-leaves-6…

Commentary on the article

http://chovanec.wordpress.com/2010/07/23/more-data-points-on-china-real…

by andyh | 23rd Aug 10, 11:32am 1282519977

It appears to me that seperate studies are being reported - one on meter readings, the other on 'lights on'.

Given that they do rather substantially come to the same conclusion I think there might just be a problem in Chinese RE.

by Wolly | 24th Aug 10, 7:39am 1282592347

They still make booze there right?

by Gummy Bear Hero | 23rd Aug 10, 10:18am 1282515529

How is it that Allied Farmers ( NZX : ALF ) has more shares on issue than Telecom ; yet less assets and profit than Smith City ( NZX : SCY ) , a company one third of ALF's market capitalisation ?

by Wolly | 23rd Aug 10, 11:27am 1282519667

Good for you anon...it's a cracka concept..so how many votes do you get if you own an apartment building and pay one rate, as opposed to a porfolio of properties with rates on each?

by Kunst | 23rd Aug 10, 11:29am 1282519757

I’m an immigrant and I’m terribly underemployed since about 6 months in my own business my wife (boss) sais.

Prime Minister where are the Kiwi buyers, who help us to pay the ever increasing rates, taxes, grocery bills, insurance etc.

What does the percentage of taxe/rate increase looks like under the aspect of decreasing profits/ wages – 3%, 5% 10% ??

by Wolly | 23rd Aug 10, 11:40am 1282520455

You get stuck into Donkey Kunst..give him a good boot or three...won't stop the endless game mate...govt has plans to separate you from your wealth...

by Kunst | 24th Aug 10, 8:09am 1282594163

Steven.orig don’t worry about me.

I wrote that comment, because I think hundred’s of retailers are in a bad (desperate) situation, have to make staff redundant and fight for survival. The government misses constantly opportunities to create and provide decent jobs for Kiwis starting up another successful career.

As an example the government is still importing infrastructure needs in the Billions.

by Kunst | 23rd Aug 10, 11:49am 1282520949

95% of the people still don’t know what’s hitting them in the next few years, so why we do not tell everyone and let’s start a revolution in this country tomorrow, before it is too late.

by Wolly | 23rd Aug 10, 12:03pm 1282521795

Quick DoubleDip...raise the firearms licence fee....munny for jam!

by Kunst | 23rd Aug 10, 12:17pm 1282522670

Start of a revolution for a better New Zealand:

Saturday, the 27^th of November by noon we meet in the 3 big cities (without guns) but with sticks and demonstrate against Donkey’s politics.

Slogan: “Stop killing the middle- class” “Reduce the government”

Friday the 3^rd of December demonstration 2pm in front of all “Council District Offices” in the country:

Call for 10% wage/ salary reduction of all councillors and civil servants above $ 100’000.- 15% reduction

by Wolly | 24th Aug 10, 8:49am 1282596569

Kunst old bean...you have a better chance of kissing an alien from another galaxy than you do of seeing the bloated salaries in the local govt 'rort the rate payer' game, cut down even 1%. It is a system of theft perfected by crooks over decades. The only escape is to live on a boat on a pick!

by Elley | 23rd Aug 10, 12:07pm 1282522029

A revolution? No thanks I'm fine and I quite enjoy peace!

Re-employment, it really depends on what you do for a living. Retail must be very hard at the moment but my husband and I (both immigrants) have never found work to be an issue so far (touch wood). Even took a 30% pay rise by switching to contracting a couple of months ago. Gotta say, until the recession I'd never been so pleased to have made the career choices that we did (no, that's not baking by the way Wally, although I'm loving the royalties).

by Kunst | 23rd Aug 10, 12:27pm 1282523230

Elley

Sooner or later you will learn (accept): In the current worldwide situation - peace can only be retained by peaceful revolutionary events.

by Elley | 23rd Aug 10, 2:23pm 1282530201

"In the current worldwide situation - peace can only be retained by peaceful revolutionary events." - So what do you call peaceful revolutionary events? And how do you support your statement? I'm not sure the words "peaceful" and "revolutionary" are very compatible. From what I remember of my history lessons, revolutionary events were hardly peaceful and in fact involved quite a few beheadings. Or do you mean that we'll (have to) radically change the way we do things?

by Wolly | 23rd Aug 10, 2:30pm 1282530642

He means killing people peacefully....stealing honestly and dictating peasant life in a democratic way because they don't understand what's good for them.

by Elley | 23rd Aug 10, 2:37pm 1282531077

LOL

by Kunst | 23rd Aug 10, 4:15pm 1282536917

An introduction for you two:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revolution

by Hard worker | 23rd Aug 10, 9:44pm 1282556684

No guns, but should I bring a hammer and sickle? No thanks.

by Kunst | 23rd Aug 10, 9:57pm 1282557422

This time revolution, I'm sure it needs rather more between the ears, then the tendency to violence.

by Wolly | 23rd Aug 10, 12:06pm 1282521994

Well jeez Valentina....they All Lied from day one...now up goes your gst to provide the loot....aint life fun in Noddyland.

by Rob of the North | 23rd Aug 10, 12:08pm 1282522128

Hey Wally/Wolly you old troll doll..are your haemerhoids playing up or something this morning?

You must have your Labour 1950's cloth cap on judging by your crazed and cynical posts regarding Nationals immigration policies and anything else incl. free parking for goats in Queen St.

Just 'cos copper is plummeting right now there's no need to sulk and impart your redundant impressions regarding the intentions of National on anything....and everything.

How would you know?...isn't it possible that for the first time since whenever... we actually have a Govt. who may be trying to improve things instead of following your old way of viewing things where everyones got their snout in the trough.

go and warm up your old rubber hottie and jump back into bed and say 100 times." my name is wally and i must not be so cynical"

good boy!

rock on elves!

by Wolly | 23rd Aug 10, 12:32pm 1282523523

What copper losses?....I flogged me pna and collected a heap of dosh dang near the top price too..what about you...not still holding out for more are you?

Yes it would be a dream to dream that we had a govt that was prepared to make the hard moves to bring an end to the property ponzi economy..sadly I suspect reality will see them opt for the easy option given the promise of being re elected in Nov 2011 on the back of fresh pork for all.

by Wolly | 23rd Aug 10, 12:34pm 1282523671

Sad but true anon...mind you I might dip me toe back in if the approaching crash smashes the prices back to where they went in the first drop....

by Elley | 23rd Aug 10, 2:33pm 1282530819

Thanks for your reply. I realise you said 90% but from my experience it's just not the case. Do you have any stats to support this figure?

Yes, we benefit from your roads and other infrastructure but I find your argument a bit silly (no offence meant, just being honest). Following your line of reasoning, do you mean that only those who were paying taxes in NZ before the first road, bridge, leisure centre etc was built should be allowed to benefit from them? That's a lot of 100% NZ kids who shouldn't be allowed anywhere near them then. Of course immigrants didn't contribute to NZ before immigrating, but most do since immigrating...which is the point since they didn't use all those roads and infrastructure until then. Not sure why your cut-off date for good/bad immigrants is "10-15 years" ago btw. Maybe there weren't any roads in NZ before then?!

My name is Christelle actually. I like your nickname too.

by Bernard Hickey | 23rd Aug 10, 3:08pm 1282532896

Dear

Wanderley Luxembergo, steven-orig, annonentity, Youngtel, 28 (now 29) year old, Lord Lucan, VALENTINA, Winston Churchill

and a reminder to all

We are planning to turn off unregistered "anonymous" comments from September.

We encourage everyone who is unregistered to register. The box on the right under the comment stream is the one.

Here's more detail

http://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/heres-why-wed-you-register-be-comment…

A few names I'd really like to see sign up from this thread:

Wanderley Luxembergo, steven-orig, annonentity, Youngtel, 28 (now 29) year old, Lord Lucan, VALENTINA, Winston Churchill

cheers

Bernard

by Wolly | 23rd Aug 10, 4:00pm 1282536000

Now why am I thinking HW1 through Marlborough is about to cost a heap more to repair!!!

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/motoring/news/article.cfm?c_id=9&objectid=10668130

One of the first of a new breed of super-sized trucks is about to hit the roads.....The new 22m truck-and-trailer unit with all of 10 axles and a loaded weight of 44 ton is coming to the main road through Marlborough....wonder if the driver will also be hammering along at 110kph!

by Elley | 23rd Aug 10, 4:07pm 1282536427

Shame they don't spend money on a proper rail network instead. I kinda miss high-speed trains.

by Wolly | 23rd Aug 10, 6:20pm 1282544454

Slow is good Elley...just watching the tv item on that German high speed train prang...slow is great!

by Elley | 23rd Aug 10, 6:35pm 1282545327

Nah, I'd rather be on a TGV than on any other train (or car/truck/plane for that matter). Much safer. "In more than two decades of high-speed operation, the TGV has not recorded a single fatality due to accident while running at high speed. There have been several accidents, including three derailments at or above 270 km/h (168 mph), but in none of these did any carriages overturn. This is credited in part to the stiffness that the articulated design lends to the train." (Wiki)

by Gummy Bear Hero | 23rd Aug 10, 6:39pm 1282545550

Check out TradeMe , Wolly , Turners ( CHCH ) have a Russian Mig fighter for sale . Bidding is around $ 34 000 . Forget the super-fast train , getcha pilot's licence and a good mechanic !

by John B | 23rd Aug 10, 6:57pm 1282546636

"Both our currency and stocks may be caught in the downdraft" ...(of the uncertainty caused by a hung parliament)

Slower Australian economic growth would be bad for New Zealand, given Australia is our largest trading partner."

Funny. I always thought that longterm influences on currencies and stocks were based on fundamentals.

And if slower growth would be bad for New Zealand, why should the corollary (faster growth and a higher GDP per capita) be good?

That would merely exacerbate the wage gap, increase net emigration which again impacts the GDP per capita gap

Fundamentals again

by Wolly | 24th Aug 10, 6:00am 1282586433

Bottle of Benfolds anyone?

http://www.theage.com.au/business/grape-rort-of-china-leaves-a-bitter-aftertaste-20100823-13io4.html

Maybe Montona is also on sale....anyone doing a check?

by Wolly | 24th Aug 10, 6:58am 1282589925

Mortgage rates may climb to 14 per cent within two years, financial experts have warned.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/7960378/Mortgage-rates-may-hit-14pc-within-two-years.html